AUTHOR=Hu Yuxia , Chu Chengbin , Wu Peng , Hu  Jun 

TITLE=A linear time series analysis of carbon price via a complex network approach

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Physics

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physics/articles/10.3389/fphy.2022.1029600

DOI=10.3389/fphy.2022.1029600

ISSN=2296-424X

ABSTRACT=Identifying the essential characteristics and forecasting carbon prices in China is significant in promoting green transformation. This paper transforms the time series into networks based on China’s pilots by the visibility graph, mining more information on the structure features. Then, we calculate the nodes’ similarity to forecast the carbon prices by link prediction. To improve the predicted accuracy, we notice the node distance to introduce the weight coefficient, measuring the impact of different nodes have on future nodes. Finally, this paper divides eight pilots into different communities by Hierarchical Clustering to study the similarities between these pilots. The results show that eight pilots are the “small world” networks except for Chongqing and Shenzhen pilots, all of which are “scale-free” networks except for Shanghai and Tianjin pilots. Compared with other predicted methods, the proposed method in this paper has a good predicted performance. Moreover, these eight pilots are divided into three clusters, indicating a higher similarity in their price-setting schemes in the same community. Based on the analysis of China’s pilots, this paper provides references for carbon trading and related enterprises.
Keywords: carbon market price; visibility graph; link prediction; community detection; complex network