AUTHOR=Huang Yumeng , Zhang Guoliang , Fu Weidong , Zhang Yue , Zhao Zihua , Li Zhihong , Qin Yujia 

TITLE=Impacts of climate change on climatically suitable regions of two invasive Erigeron weeds in China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=Volume 14 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2023.1238656

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2023.1238656

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=Based on historical occurrence datasets and environmental variables, we optimized a MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of Erigeron philadelphicus and Erigeron annuus, two ecologically destructive invasive plants from the Asteraceae family. We also analyzed the shifts of distribution centroids and patterns under climate change scenarios. The key variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of E. annuus and E. philadelphicus, respectively, are temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest month. Moreover, topsoil sodicity and topsoil salinity also influence the distribution of E. philadelphicus. Under climate change the overall suitable habitats for both invasive alien Erigeron weeds are expected to expand. The potential geographical distribution of E. annuus exhibited the highest expansion under the SSP245 climate scenario (medium forcing scenarios), whereas E. philadelphicus had the highest expansion under the SSP126 climate scenario (lower forcing scenarios) globally. The future centroid of E. annuus is projected to shift to higher latitudes specifically from Hubei to Hebei, whereas E. philadelphicus remains concentrated primarily in Hubei Province. The overlapping suitabe areas of the two invasive alien Erigeron plants mainly occurs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Chongqing, within China. Interestingly, whereas E. philadelphicus was historically the only species suitable for the northeastern region, climate change will enable E. annuus to expand into this area. Furthermore, it is anticipated that E. annuus will invade Yunnan Province, which was previously only suitable for E. philadelphicus under historical climate conditions. E. annuus demonstrates a greater invasion potential for invasion and expansion under climate change, as it exhibits higher environmental tolerance. The predictive results obtained in this study can serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies aimed at controlling the spread of these two invasive plants.