AUTHOR=Yi Sangui , Huang Yuanhe , Liu Zongling , Zhu Zhengjie , Su Hongxin 

TITLE=Predicting the potential geographical distribution of mango, an important tropical economic tree species, under current and climate change based on Maxent model

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=Volume 16 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1633654

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2025.1633654

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=IntroductionMango is a major tropical economic tree species in China, along with being a vital   source of livelihood for farmers and an important maintainer of ecosystem services  in southern China.  Identifying the potential suitable habitats for mango under current  and future climate scenarios, along with key influencing factors, can inform mango  plantation.  However, little is known about these.MethodsUsing Maxent, we modeled the  current and future potential suitable habitats for mango, evaluated the impact of  environmental variables on their distribution, and identified shifts related to climate  change in their distribution.ResultsThe results showed that the current potential suitable  habitats for mango were primarily located in southern China, within the tropical and  subtropical regions.  Under climate scenarios of both SSP585 and SSP126, the  potential suitable habitats not only encompassed the southern provinces of China  that were already covered but also expanded northward to include central provinces,  particularly Sichuan and Chongqing municipalities.  Mango exhibited a clear  tendency to migrate toward higher altitudes and latitudes under SSP585 scenario,  whereas the trend of mango migration to such areas was less pronounced under SSP126 scenario.  Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Annual accumulated  temperature (≥10°C), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and UV-B Seasonality were  identified as the main factors shaping the distribution of the potential suitable  habitats for mango.DiscussionOur recommendation to adapt to climate change is to expand  mango cultivation to high-latitude/altitude areas, particularly Sichuan-Chongqing in  central China, along with water-saving irrigation, shade management, development  of drought- and disease-resistant cultivars, and mapping of the potential suitable  habitats for different varieties.