Frozen Conflicts Beyond Containment: Strategic Ambiguity and the Case of Transnistria in Wartime Europe

Abstract

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has transformed the geopolitical role of unresolved conflicts in Europe. This article examines how strategic ambiguity reshapes frozen conflicts during interstate war through the case of Transnistria, a de facto separatist territory internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Moldova. It argues that the war has transformed frozen conflicts from mechanisms of post-conflict containment into adaptive mechanisms of geopolitical leverage sustained through multiple forms of strategic ambiguity. The article employs a qualitative interpretive approach, combining a single-case study with process tracing, strategic analysis, and discourse analysis. The analysis is based on official statements, policy documents, and institutional discourse issued since 2022 by Russian, Moldovan, European Union, and NATO actors. The findings identify three forms of strategic ambiguity. Russian ambiguity is coercive, relying on protection narratives, undefined escalation thresholds, and strategic uncertainty surrounding Russian troops and citizens in Transnistria. Moldovan ambiguity is defensive, allowing Chișinău to preserve maneuverability, avoid escalation, and advance European integration without formally abandoning reintegration. EU and NATO ambiguity is institutional, supporting Moldova through resilience, capacity-building, and security cooperation while avoiding hard-security commitments. The article reconceptualizes frozen conflicts as adaptive environments of strategic uncertainty and develops a multidimensional framework distinguishing coercive, defensive, and institutional ambiguity. It shows how these forms interact to make unresolved sovereignty politically functional under wartime conditions, allowing frozen conflicts to remain militarily inactive while continuing to shape deterrence, regional security, and European integration.