University student dropout and retention rates are commonly used in higher education to describe the enrolment status of students following admission into an academic programme (1). Student dropout, or attrition, captures the decline in the number of students initially enrolled in an academic programme, while retention represents the count of students who continue to re-enroll in the program in subsequent years until completion (1, 2).

Considerable efforts have focused on monitoring and understanding student dropout rates, particularly in the first year of study which typically has the highest dropout rates ranging from 8-21% (3, 4). A comprehensive review of empirical literature classifies dropout determinants into five categories (4): i. student demographic factors- with being a male student increasing dropout probability (5), ii. family background- with lower socio-economic status increasing the likelihood of dropout (6), iii. academic and social integration- with greater ties to peers and institutional commitment reducing dropout rates (7), iv. institutional factors- with large class sizes increasing dropout rates (8) and v. labour market trends – with employability prospects having mixed impact on student dropout. The contribution of psychosocial and wellbeing variables, such as mental health and food security, on student dropout trends have generally been underexplored.

Recently, there has been general concern about the negative impact of COVID-19 on student dropout. A study from Europe reported a significant increase in dropout rates, especially among students with children and disabilities (9). A study from South America reported higher levels of dropout, citing economic and mental challenges related to the pandemic as key factors (1). In South Africa, preliminary analysis conducted using national data from the South African Department of Higher Education (DHET) early in the pandemic indicated increased dropout rates when compared to the previous years, with a significantly larger increase of dropout among those not receiving financial aid (2.8%) (10). While these findings cannot be solely attributed to factors related to the pandemic, they do justify further exploration of the factors that might have influenced student dropout during the pandemic.

South African higher education’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic forced students to move back home to environments that were often unconducive for learning (11, 12). Students were expected to adopt a new and complex mode of learning which required computer hardware and connectivity (12, 13)). Many students faced realities of job and income loss (3, 13, 14). They were also anxious about contracting COVID-19, with some falling ill, some having to be primary caregivers, and others grieving for those who had passed away (3).

Several studies have reported on the impact of COVID-19 on students’ food security (13–15). Literature has identified job loss as a key contributor to student food insecurity during the pandemic (13, 16, 17). Studies also noted increased levels of mental distress among university students, triggered by the move to online learning, poor home environments, financial concerns as well as anxiousness precipitating from isolation and confinement due to lockdown (11, 18).

Preceding the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, scholarly investigations unveiled robust connections between food insecurity, mental distress, and student progression (19, 20). The pandemic and subsequent lockdown heightened these risks by i) amplifying the threat of food insecurity through loss of livelihoods, ii) inducing mental distress through experiences of grief, isolation, and uncertainty among students, and iii) ushering in a novel mode of remote teaching and learning that imposed constraints on certain student groups. It is expected that the interplay of these factors would negatively influence student dropout rates. The current study, therefore, aims to understand the impact of food insecurity and mental distress on university student dropout during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa.

This study is informed by Tinto’s interactionalist theory on student departure (7). Social and academic integration are critical elements in Tinto’s theory. Academic integration is conceptualised as intra-curricular interactions between students and university staff, as well as their peers. Social interaction is defined as the extent to which students feel connected to and involved in the social life of the university community. Tinto posits that a student’s choice to discontinue their university enrolment unfolds through a complex series of experiences. Tinto’s theory acknowledges the role of both socio-economic factors as well as factors contributing to isolation rather than integration, as critical factors influencing student departure decisions. Drawing from Tinto’s theory, the confluence of financial strain (and resulting impact of food insecurity), coupled with mental distress, some of which emanated from feelings of isolation, despondency and loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic, created a precarious environment for students, potentially leading to a decision to dropout.

A total of 5,684 students fulfilled the study’s inclusion criteria and were invited to take part in this study. Of those invited, 12.8% (726) participated. Records with no data in the variables of interest were removed from the sample, forming an analytical sample of 596 (10.5%) of the entire student sample and 82% of those who participated).

Student dropout is a key challenge faced by higher education institutions worldwide (4). Literature affirms that the determinants of dropout are intricate and greatly influenced by context (6). The COVID-19 pandemic added an additional complexity, as evidenced by the findings of various studies across the world acknowledging its contribution to increased dropout rates (1, 9). The current study found a dropout rate of 10.5% (95% CI: 8.2-13.2) during the COVID-19 pandemic, a slight increase from the 10% dropout rate cited in pre-COVID-19 research at the same institution of the current work (20). It also found that being a male student and being older was significantly linked with dropout, a finding aligned with literature (4, 44). However, closer inspection of the current work reveals that students residing in villages or farms during the lockdown had dropout rates of closer to 20%, nearly double the average, pre-pandemic rate. Literature emphasizes that, beyond the well-documented factors impacting dropout rates, students in remote areas encountered additional challenges in remote learning during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to their counterparts in different regions. These challenges stemmed from unreliable internet connections and unpredictable power supply leading to class absences, an important precursor of dropout (4, 45).

Further to this, the current study reported high levels of severe food insecurity (25.7%; 95% CI: 22.3-29.4) and severe mental distress (26.7%; 95% CI: 23.3-30.4), together with evidence that moderate food insecurity (OR=2.50; 95% CI: 1.12-5.55, p=0.025) as well severe mental distress (OR=7.08; 95% CI: 2.67-18.81, p<0.001) significantly increased the likelihood of student dropout. Again, it was students residing in villages or on farms during the pandemic that were most affected, with 43.6% of these students reporting severe food insecurity. It is also important to highlight that those students with moderate food insecurity had the highest rate of dropout at 17.5% (p=0.046). It is possible that these students may not have qualified for social support programs, as priority is often given to students who are severely food insecure and those grappling with hunger (46). The elevated levels of severe food insecurity and mental distress may reinforce poor classroom participation due to impaired concentration and reduced cognitive functioning, both impacting negatively on the learning experience and reflected in dropout rates (47, 48).

The data presented suggests an intriguing link between food insecurity, mental distress, and dropout rates amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Both food insecurity and mental distress have been demonstrated to affect academic outcomes directly as well as through interactions with each other (27, 49, 50). However, the current findings demonstrate how these dynamics may have evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic, which fostered isolation rather than the integration advocated for by Tinto. While noting the multifactorial nature of student dropout, it is plausible that the challenges some students faced with remote learning could have contributed to their dropout. Furthermore, the heightened risk of food insecurity and mental distress because of challenges including mass job loss and isolation due to the pandemic, may have also had a potential impact on dropout. These findings are aligned with work from South America which found that 38% of students reported economic distress (related to food insecurity risk) as a key motive to dropout early in the pandemic, while dropout motives related to mental distress increased over time reaching 40% in 2021 (1). There is also evidence linking poor family resources as well as an inability to cope with low resilience, and ultimately heighted risk for dropout, further corroborating the findings from the current study (51).

Tinto’s theory highlights the crucial role of student integration into the social and academic aspects of university life, arguing that successful integration reduces the likelihood of dropout. The current study takes into consideration the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on academic activities, recognizing its impact on student learning, as well as the pandemic’s effects on socio-economic conditions, including food insecurity, and mental distress risk (11, 13, 16). These impacts have negative consequences on the social and academic integration that Tinto highlights as important. Remote learning, exacerbated by issues including inadequate connectivity and intermittent power supply as reported in the literature, emerges as a substantial hindrance to the integration between students and the academic environment. Our research embraces Tinto’s work by highlighting that food insecurity and mental distress also perpetuate social isolation arising from the mental toll of physical distancing and economic devastation of the pandemic, thereby leading to higher levels of dropout. This work therefore identifies these factors as important contributors to the complexity of students’ experiences and decision-making processes during the pandemic. This research suggests that food insecurity and mental distress, during the COVID-19 pandemic, intersect with Tinto’s core concept of integration. It enriches our understanding of the nuanced dynamics and interplay between these factors and student dropout.

University dropout rates remain a concern in higher education, with levels from one South African university found to slightly increase during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Food insecurity and severe mental distress, two factors heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, were found to be strong predictors of student dropout with future studies needed to explore whether the changing trends identified in the current work persist after the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless, given the known impact of food insecurity and mental distress on student success, institutions of higher education should provide targeted support to students found to be food insecure and those who are experiencing mental distress, thereby improving student success and reducing dropout.

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

The studies involving humans were approved by University Human Research Ethics Committee (Non-medical) (H20/06/22) University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) (Medical) (M210712). The studies were conducted in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. The participants provided their written informed consent to participate in this study.

FW: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Funding acquisition, Writing – review & editing. RW: Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing, Methodology. LM: Investigation, Writing – review & editing, Project administration. MM: Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing – review & editing, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration. UK: Supervision, Writing – review & editing. FG: Supervision, Writing – review & editing.