AUTHOR=Jin Hui , Wang Cong , Yang Yi-Yue , Zhou Lie , Xiao Yun , Wen Yang , Ahmad Jawad , Mu Yun-Fei , Cai Jia , Li Ming , Luo Wei , Zhou Xiao-Fei , Luo Jian-Jun , Liu Bo , Chen Eric Yu-Hai , Ran Mao-Sheng 

TITLE=Establishing a long-term predictive model for aggressive behavior in schizophrenia: a 21-year longitudinal study in rural China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychiatry

VOLUME=Volume 16 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychiatry/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1586009

DOI=10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1586009

ISSN=1664-0640

ABSTRACT=BackgroundAlthough identifying factors contributing to aggressive behavior in individuals with schizophrenia is crucial for developing targeted prevention strategies and intervention, most studies were cross-sectional or short-term, and did not take into account the factor of urbanicity. This study aimed to develop a predictive model of aggressive behavior in individuals with schizophrenia in rural China.MethodA total of 205 individuals with schizophrenia who were identified in 1994 and followed up in 2015 were included in the study. Aggressive behavior was assessed using the Modified Overt Aggression Scale (MOAS). The final predictive model was developed by backward stepwise regression. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated using the C statistic and calibration curve.ResultThe rate of aggressive behavior in individuals with schizophrenia in rural China was 36.1% during 1994-2015. The final model of aggressive behavior incorporated the following factors: male, lower educational level, unmarried, with delusion, worse social functioning, and with previous treatment. The model demonstrated acceptable discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.73, sensitivity of 0.82, and specificity of 0.53. The calibration curve indicated a good fit of the model.ConclusionThe predictive model developed in this study showed good discriminative ability. A clinically practical nomogram was built to assess the risk of aggressive behavior in individuals with schizophrenia in rural China, which may facilitate early detection and intervention of these individuals, particularly in rural areas with limited resources. This approach may be relevant to similar settings internationally.