AUTHOR=Shefrin Hersh 

TITLE=The Psychology Underlying Biased Forecasts of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the United States

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychology

VOLUME=11

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.590594

DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2020.590594

ISSN=1664-1078

ABSTRACT=<p>This paper discusses the impact of a series of psychological phenomena on the U.S. response to COVID-19, focusing on forecasts of cases and deaths. The specific phenomena comprise unrealistic optimism bias, overconfidence, anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, motivated reasoning, and groupthink.</p>