AUTHOR=Steib Nicole , Krauss Stefan , Binder Karin , Büchter Theresa , Böcherer-Linder Katharina , Eichler Andreas , Vogel Markus 

TITLE=Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychology

VOLUME=Volume 14 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370

DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370

ISSN=1664-1078

ABSTRACT=Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people´s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we examine the extent to which people understand the effects of changes in the three input probabilities on the positive predictive value, that is, covariational reasoning, which has yet to be considered in depth. In this regard, two different operationalizations for measuring covariational reasoning (by single-choice vs. slider format) are investigated in an empirical study with N=229 university students, as well as whether skill in “conventional” Bayesian reasoning—that is, the calculation of the positive predictive value—is a prerequisite for covariational reasoning.