AUTHOR=Steib Nicole , Krauss Stefan , Binder Karin , Büchter Theresa , Böcherer-Linder Katharina , Eichler Andreas , Vogel Markus 

TITLE=Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychology

VOLUME=Volume 14 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370

DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370

ISSN=1664-1078

ABSTRACT=<p>Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we systematically examine the extent to which people understand the effects of changes in the three input probabilities on the positive predictive value, that is, <italic>covariational reasoning</italic>. In this regard, two different operationalizations for measuring covariational reasoning (i.e., by single-choice vs. slider format) are investigated in an empirical study with <italic>N</italic> = 229 university students. In addition, we aim to answer the question wheter a skill in “conventional” Bayesian reasoning is a prerequisite for covariational reasoning.</p>