AUTHOR=Jakovljevic Mihajlo , Malmose-Stapelfeldt Christina , Milovanovic Olivera , Rancic Nemanja , Bokonjic Dubravko 

TITLE=Disability, Work Absenteeism, Sickness Benefits, and Cancer in Selected European OECD Countries—Forecasts to 2020

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 5 - 2017

YEAR=2017

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00023

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2017.00023

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Background: Disability either due to illness, ageing or both causes, remains an essential contributor shaping European labour markets. Ability of modern day welfare states to compensate an impaired work ability and absenteeism arising from incapacity is very diverse. This study was aimed to establish and explaine intercountry differences among selected European OECD countries and provide forecasts of future work absenteeism and expenditures on wage replacement benefits.  

Methods: Two major public registries: European Health for All database (HFA-DB) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development database (OECD Health Data) were coupled to form a joint database on twelve core indicators. These were related to disability, work absenteeism and sickness benefits in European OECD Countries. Time horizon 1989 – 2013 was observed. Forecasting analysis was done on mean values of all data for each single variable for all observed countries in a single year. Based on that mean value trends were predicted on a selected time horizon, in our case seven years up to 2020. For this purpose ARIMA prediction model was applied and its significance was assesed via Ljung-Boks Q test. 

Results: Our forecasts based on ARIMA modelling of available data  indicate that up to 2020 most European countries will experience downfall of absenteeism from work due to illness. The number of citizens receiving social/disability benefits and the number being compensated due to health-related absence from work will decline. As opposed to these trends, cancer morbidity may become the top ranked disability driver as hospital discharge diagnoses.  Concerning development  is the anticipated bold growth of hospital discharge frequencies due to cancer across the region. This effectivelly means that part of these savings on social support expenditure shall effectively be spent to combat strong cancer morbidity as the major driver of disability.  

Conclusions: We have clearly growing work load for the national health systems attributable to the clinical oncology acting as the major disability contributor. This effectivelly means that large share of these savings on public expenditure shall effectively be spent to combat strong cancer morbidity. On another side we have all signs of falling societal responsibility towards the citizens suffering from