AUTHOR=Dansana Debabrata , Kumar Raghvendra , Das Adhikari Janmejoy , Mohapatra Mans , Sharma Rohit , Priyadarshini Ishaani , Le Dac-Nhuong 

TITLE=Global Forecasting Confirmed and Fatal Cases of COVID-19 Outbreak Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 8 - 2020

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.580327

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2020.580327

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=The world health organization (WHO) formally proclaimed the Coronavirus, called COVID-19 episode a worldwide pandemic on 11 March 2020. In December 2019 COVID-19 was found in Wuhan city, China, and now coronavirus has spread over various nations as the flare-up has now spread to 198+ nations. All out contaminations outside of China are quickening exponentially, with the worldwide disease cost outperforming 250,000+ as of 18 March 2020, with Asia's commitment at more than 81,000. The Proposed model is using time series analysis to forecast the outbreak of COVID-19 in the world in upcoming days by using an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA).Data has been taken from 1 February 2020 to 1 April 2020 and the outcome showed good performance, around 120000 confirmed fatalities cases has been forecasted using ARIMA model till 1 April 2020 apart from that  we have evaluated total confirmed cases, total fatalities cases, autocorrelation function and white noise time-series for both confirmed and fatalities case of COVID-19 outbreak.