AUTHOR=de Wit Luz A. , Ricketts Taylor H. 

TITLE=Trade and Deforestation Predict Rat Lungworm Disease, an Invasive-Driven Zoonosis, at Global and Regional Scales

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.680986

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2021.680986

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Deforestation and the introduction of non-native species are both important drivers of environmental change that can also facilitate the geographic spread of zoonotic pathogens and increase disease risk in humans. With ongoing trends in globalization and land use conversions, introduced species and deforestation are ever more likely to pose threats to human health. Here we used rat lungworm, an emerging zoonotic disease caused by Angiostrongylus cantonensis and maintained by invasive rats and snails, to explore how these two forms of environmental change can impact zoonotic disease risk. We used logistic regressions to examine the role of global trade in the introduction of A. cantonensis at a country level and used model estimates to predict probability of introduction as a function of trade. We then used hurdle-based regression models to examine the association between deforestation and rat lungworm disease in two regions where A. cantonensis is already established: Hawaii and Thailand. At the global scale, we found the trade of horticultural products to be an important driver in the spread of A. cantonensis, and that the majority of countries at high risk of future A. cantonensis introduction are islands. At country scales, we found deforestation to increase the per capita risk of A. cantonensis exposure in Hawaii and in Thailand. Our study provides a preliminary view of the associations between species introductions, deforestation, and risk of A. cantonensis exposure in people. Better understanding how these two widespread and overlapping forms of environmental change affect human health can inform international biosecurity protocols, invasive species management and land use policies.