AUTHOR=Gao Yuan , Li Jingbo , Yuan Xin 

TITLE=Forecasting the Health Transition and Medical Expenditure of the Future Elderly in China: A Longitudinal Study Based on Markov Chain and Two Part Model

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2021

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.774140

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2021.774140

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Set in the rapid development of population aging, this paper focuses on the relationship between health and medical expenditure of the elderly population. Taking the health and medical expenditure of the elderly as the research object, the paper analyzes the characteristics and the intrinsic relationship between them. Based on the future elderly model, the paper calculates the transition probability of the elderly's self-assessment health state using the Health Transition Model, and estimates the medical expenditure of the elderly by Two Part Model. Based on the above, this paper predicts the trend of the population size and medical expenditure of the elderly in the next 15 years (2020-2035). Based on the results, the policy suggestions are put forward. To begin with, strengthening health management and health services for the elderly in the construction of healthy China. Next, building a comprehensive system of health care for the elderly in government, society, family and individual. Then, establishing long-term care service system as soon as possible. In addition, it is better to establish lifelong health consciousness and cultivating healthy accomplishment behavior. Finally, it is necessary to promote the gender mainstreaming in the health field.