AUTHOR=Zhai Mimi , Jiang Qin , Liu Sushun , Long Jianhai , Zhang Dan , Ren Chutong , Gong Yi , Li Yamin 

TITLE=DALY trend and predictive analysis of COPD in China and its provinces: Findings from the global burden of disease study

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1046773

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2022.1046773

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the most common chronic respiratory disease in the world, especially in China. Few studies have explored the trend of COPD in China and its provinces. This study aimed to demonstrate and predict the trend of COPD DALY in China and its provinces based on the global burden of disease (GBD) data.
Results: In China, the COPD DALY was 20.4 million in 2017, which decreased 24.16% from 1990 to 2017. Most provinces showed a downward trend, with the exception of Taiwan which increased by 127.78%. The ASR of DALY was 1445.53 per 100,000 people in 2017, and demonstrated a significant decrease. Among all provinces, only Taiwan (97.78%) and Hubei (2.21%) demonstrated an increase trend of ASR. Additionally, Tibet ranked 3rd with a decline of 56.95%, although its ASR was the highest in 1990. Smoking and air pollution were the main risk factors for COPD and varied with regions, gender and age. The proportion of COPD DALY attributable to smoking was higher in middle-aged and elderly male population and did not decrease in China. Additionally, the ASR attributable to air pollution of the elderly decreased significantly in China. Socio-demographic index (SDI) and educational level also were found to be related to ASR. By predicting the ASR trend in the next 10 years, we found that the ASR attributable to smoking might increase significantly among men. The ASR attributable to air pollution showed a significant decrease in females. Unfortunately, the ASR attributable to second-hand smoke was found to increase in females.
Conclusions: COPD is the leading contributor to the burden of global diseases. Although China and its provinces demonstrated a downward trend of COPD DALY, some provinces still faced with challenges. Moreover, ASR attributable to risk factors was different in regions, gender, age and years. The predicted trend of COPD was also different. Therefore, more targeted strategies should be formulated to reduce the burden of COPD in China and its provinces.