AUTHOR=Chen Fengzhang , Wang Wei , Wang Yanfei , Wu Yongqiu 

TITLE=How Two-Child Policy Affects China's Energy Consumption: The Mediating Role of Lifestyle

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.866324

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2022.866324

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Background: Most literatures believe that the fertility rate influences energy consumption through population size, but ignore the impact of people’s lifestyle. This may mislead governments’ policy-making about population and energy consumption.
Method: This paper presents the population-lifestyle-energy (PLE) model to provide new insights into how fertility rate affects energy consumption by considering the changes in people's lifestyle. The ProFamy software is used to forecast the changes of demographic characteristics. The regression analysis and input-output method are used to predict the effects of lifestyle changing on energy consumption.
Results: We find that China’s two-child policy will lead the total energy consumption to increase by 16.2% in 2050, far outpacing the population increase of 9.3%. This is significantly different from what was predicted by the traditional literature. We also find the nonlinear relationships between fertility rate and energy consumption, and the relationships vary significantly among different sectors.
Conclusion:  Ignoring lifestyle changes will lead to an underestimation of energy consumption. Contrary to conventional optimistic wisdom, we believe that the two-child policy will make it difficult for China to meet promised energy conservation goals.