AUTHOR=Chen Ningjing , Fong Daniel Yee Tak , Wong Janet Yuen Ha 

TITLE=Trends in Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Needs in China From 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.869239

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2022.869239

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Background: China has the largest population worldwide, disability and medical expenses caused by musculoskeletal disorders had a great impact on global health and economy. Rehabilitation is essential for dealing with musculoskeletal disorders. However, China’s musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs remain unknown. This study aimed to examine the secular trends for musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs in China from 1990 to 2030. 
Methods: Data on musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were extracted from the World Health Organization Rehabilitation Need Estimator. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to reflect fluctuations in age-standardized rates. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project rehabilitation needs. 
Results: The number of prevalent cases and years lived with disability (YLDs) counts in need of musculoskeletal rehabilitation increased greatly in China from 1990 to 2019. There will be 465.9 million Chinese people in need of rehabilitation, with age-standardized prevalence rate increasing to 21151.0 [2.5% to 97.5% predictive interval (95% PI) 14872.6 to 27429.3] per 100 000 persons in 2030. Similarly, the YLD counts will increase to 40.1 million, with age-standardized YLD rate increasing to1811.2 (95% PI 1232.5 to 2390.0) per 100 000 persons in 2030.
Conclusions: Increasing trends in musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were found from 1990 to 2019, which will be anticipated through 2030. Rehabilitation is suggested to be integrated into primary care settings.