AUTHOR=Shen Shijing , Li Wenning , Wei Hua , Zhao Lin , Ye Runze , Ma Ke , Xiao Peng , Jia Na , Zhou Jieping , Cui Xiaoming , Gong Jianhua , Cao Wuchun 

TITLE=A Chess and Card Room-Induced COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Agent-Based Simulation in Yangzhou, China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.915716

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2022.915716

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Objective: To evaluate epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Yangzhou and to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales.
Methods: We collected personal information from 570 laboratory-confirmed cases in Yangzhou from July 28 to August 26, 2021, built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model and Agent-based model.
Results: The SEIR model showed that for passengers from medium-high risk areas, pre-travel nucleic acid testing within 3 days could limit the total number of infected people in Yangzhou to 50; among the elderly persons, 60% increase in vaccination rates could reduce the estimated infections by 253. The Agent-based model showed that when the population density of chess & card room dropped by 40%, the number of infected people would decrease by 54 within 7 days; when increase the ventilation from 25% to 75% could reduce the total number of infections to 63 within 7days.
Conclusions: The SEIR model and Agent-based model were successfully to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales. It is possible to provide reference for epidemic prevention and control work.