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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Public Health</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Public Health</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Public Health</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2296-2565</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/fpubh.2023.1131753</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Public Health</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Surface ozone pollution in China: Trends, exposure risks, and drivers</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>He</surname> <given-names>Chao</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/2081628/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Wu</surname> <given-names>Qian</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Li</surname> <given-names>Bin</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Liu</surname> <given-names>Jianhua</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name><surname>Gong</surname> <given-names>Xi</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001"><sup>&#x0002A;</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name><surname>Zhang</surname> <given-names>Lu</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c002"><sup>&#x0002A;</sup></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><sup>1</sup><institution>College of Resources and Environment, Yangtze University</institution>, <addr-line>Wuhan</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff2"><sup>2</sup><institution>School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University</institution>, <addr-line>Wuhan</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff3"><sup>3</sup><institution>School of Low Carbon Economics, Hubei University of Economics</institution>, <addr-line>Wuhan</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff4"><sup>4</sup><institution>Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry</institution>, <addr-line>Wuhan</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff5"><sup>5</sup><institution>State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences</institution>, <addr-line>Wuhan</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by: Yuxia Ma, Hebei Medical University, China</p></fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Reviewed by: Quan Zhou, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, China; Wei Du, Kunming University of Science and Technology, China; Song Bo, Hebei Medical University, China</p></fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x0002A;Correspondence: Xi Gong <email>gongxixigong&#x00040;126.com</email></corresp>
<corresp id="c002">Lu Zhang <email>541462161&#x00040;qq.com</email></corresp>
<fn fn-type="other" id="fn001"><p>This article was submitted to Environmental health and Exposome, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health</p></fn></author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<elocation-id>1131753</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>26</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>03</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#x000A9; 2023 He, Wu, Li, Liu, Gong and Zhang.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>He, Wu, Li, Liu, Gong and Zhang</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p></license> </permissions>
<abstract>
<sec>
<title>Introduction</title>
<p>Within the context of the yearly improvement of particulate matter (PM) pollution in Chinese cities, Surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) concentrations are increasing instead of decreasing and are becoming the second most important air pollutant after PM. Long-term exposure to high concentrations of O<sub>3</sub> can have adverse effects on human health. In-depth investigation of the spatiotemporal patterns, exposure risks, and drivers of O<sub>3</sub> is relevant for assessing the future health burden of O<sub>3</sub> pollution and implementing air pollution control policies in China.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods</title>
<p>Based on high-resolution O<sub>3</sub> concentration reanalysis data, we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns, population exposure risks, and dominant drivers of O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China from 2013 to 2018 utilizing trend analysis methods, spatial clustering models, exposure-response functions, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression models (MGWR).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Results</title>
<p>The results show that the annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentration in China increased significantly at a rate of 1.84 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/year from 2013 to 2018 (160 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>) in China increased from 1.2% in 2013 to 28.9% in 2018, and over 20,000 people suffered premature death from respiratory diseases attributed to O<sub>3</sub> exposure each year. Thus, the sustained increase in O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China is an important factor contributing to the increasing threat to human health. Furthermore, the results of spatial regression models indicate that population, the share of secondary industry in GDP, NOx emissions, temperature, average wind speed, and relative humidity are important determinants of O<sub>3</sub> concentration variation and significant spatial differences are observed.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Discussion</title>
<p>The spatial differences of drivers result in the spatial heterogeneity of O<sub>3</sub> concentration and exposure risks in China. Therefore, the O<sub>3</sub> control policies adapted to various regions should be formulated in the future O<sub>3</sub> regulation process in China.</p></sec></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>surface ozone</kwd>
<kwd>spatial-temporal pattern</kwd>
<kwd>exposure risks</kwd>
<kwd>health risks</kwd>
<kwd>dominant drivers</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<contract-sponsor id="cn001">Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province<named-content content-type="fundref-id">10.13039/501100003819</named-content></contract-sponsor>
<counts>
<fig-count count="10"/>
<table-count count="1"/>
<equation-count count="5"/>
<ref-count count="47"/>
<page-count count="14"/>
<word-count count="8488"/>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s1">
<title>1. Introduction</title>
<p>Within the context of the yearly improvement of particulate matter (PM) pollution in Chinese cities, O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are increasing instead of decreasing and are becoming the second most important air pollutant after PM (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">1</xref>). According to the data published by the China General Environmental Monitoring Station, the daily maximum hourly average 90th percentile concentration of O<sub>3</sub> in 338 prefecture-level cities in China increased from 140.0 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup> in 2014 to 151.0 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup> in 2018, and the number of days exceeding the standard increased from 6.1% in 2014 to 8.4% in 2018, and the O<sub>3</sub> concentration in some regions has exceeded the secondary concentration limit (160 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>) for air quality in China (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">2</xref>). Long-term exposure to high O<sub>3</sub> concentrations not only affects urban air quality (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">3</xref>), damages human health (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">4</xref>), reduces food production (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">5</xref>), affects atmospheric radiation balance (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">6</xref>), and even influences global climate change (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">7</xref>). Due to its importance to the atmospheric environment and climate change, O<sub>3</sub> has received continuous attention from the scientific community and relevant regulatory administrations in the past decades.</p>
<p>To deeply understand the O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China, a large number of researchers have conducted extensive investigations on O<sub>3</sub> pollution levels, spatial and temporal patterns, trends, exposure risks, and drivers in China from different spatial and temporal scales over the past decade (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">8</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">10</xref>). For example, Gong et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">11</xref>) revealed the dominant meteorological controls on surface O<sub>3</sub> pollution in 16 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2016 using a generalized additive model (GAM); Cao et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">12</xref>) studied the spatial and temporal patterns of O<sub>3</sub> pollution and ecological risks in the rainfed area of West China, Southwest China, based on ground-based data. Zhan et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">2</xref>) estimated the health risk due to O<sub>3</sub> pollution in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region between 2015 and 2019 based on the exposure-response function, and their results showed that the population of premature respiratory deaths due to O<sub>3</sub> pollution was 5,889 cases per year from 2015 to 2019, and found that the population of premature deaths was extremely sensitive to O<sub>3</sub> pollution. In addition, Gao et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">3</xref>), Maji et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">13</xref>), and Lu et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">14</xref>) also performed relevant studies on health risks due to O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China from different regions.</p>
<p>The numerous studies mentioned above are important references for a comprehensive assessment of the O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China, but these studies still have the following shortcomings. First, there is significant spatial heterogeneity in surface O<sub>3</sub> pollution, with a few individual cities or regions of O<sub>3</sub> pollution not being a substitute for the level of O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China. Second, there are potential spatial associations between exposure risk and health risk of populations to surface O<sub>3</sub> pollution, and unfortunately, previous studies have tended to ignore their interrelationships. Third, the effects of drivers on O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are spatially variable, and previous studies have tended to focus on the combined effects of drivers on O<sub>3</sub>, neglecting the spatial and temporal differences in the effects of drivers on O<sub>3</sub> concentrations.</p>
<p>Therefore, the main objectives of this study include: (1) investigating the spatial and temporal patterns and trends of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China using trend analysis and spatial clustering based on a high spatial and temporal resolution O<sub>3</sub> concentration dataset; (2) examining the spatial and temporal associations of population exposure risk and health risk attributable to O<sub>3</sub> pollution using population exposure risk models and exposure-response functions; and (3) revealing the drivers of differences in O<sub>3</sub> distribution in China from a spatial perspective based on a multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. This study has important practical implications for assessing the future health burden caused by O<sub>3</sub> pollution and its resulting health costs in China; meanwhile, it has important implications for how to equitably allocate healthcare resources and environmental management costs in the future planning and construction of healthy cities and smart cities in China.</p></sec>
<sec id="s2">
<title>2. Materials and methods</title>
<sec>
<title>2.1. Study area</title>
<p>This study focuses on China, including 31 provinces in the Chinese mainland, excluding Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan, and Hainan. Based on the social, natural, economic, and human environment, these 31 regions were further categorized into seven geo-administrative regions, including North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), South China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan), East China (Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong, Zhejiang), Central China (Henan, Hunan, Hubei), Southwest China (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), and Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F1" position="float">
<label>Figure 1</label>
<caption><p>Study area spatial distribution map.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0001.tif"/>
</fig></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.2. Data source</title>
<p>The daily maximum 8-h O<sub>3</sub> concentration (MDA8) reanalysis dataset of 10 &#x000D7; 10 km from January 1, 2013, to December 1, 2018, is from the tracking air pollution in China (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://tapdata.org/">http://tapdata.org/</ext-link>). The dataset is based on a machine learning algorithm and multi-data information fusion inversion. Its comprehensive construction combines ground monitoring data, satellite remote sensing data, high-resolution emission inventory data, air quality model simulation, and other multi-source data, which greatly improves the spatial and temporal accuracy of the data inversion results compared with the previous air quality reanalysis data (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">15</xref>). The daily O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in 360 prefecture-level cities in China during the study period were obtained from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cnemc.cn/sssj/">http://www.cnemc.cn/sssj/</ext-link>). In order to reduce the error in the calculation of the health risk model, we calculated the 90th percentile concentration of the MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> concentration from the interannual scale based on the daily MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> concentration as the threshold.</p>
<p>The population size (Pop), the proportion of secondary industry to GDP (S_GDP), disposable income per capita (P_GDP), and soot emissions (Dust) for 360 prefecture-level cities in China during the study period were obtained from the China Statistical Yearbook (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/&#x00023;">http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/&#x00023;</ext-link>). The nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions were obtained from the China Multiscale Emissions Inventory Model (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://meicmodel.org/">http://meicmodel.org/</ext-link>). The 1 &#x000D7; 1 km spatial resolution population data were obtained from the World pop dataset (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.worldpop.org/">https://www.worldpop.org/</ext-link>).</p>
<p>The daily meteorological data were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Network (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://data.cma.cn/">http://data.cma.cn/</ext-link>) during the study period. The meteorological data obtained in this study mainly include air temperature (Tem, &#x000B0;C), sea level pressure (Pa, Pa), relative humidity (Hum, %), 2-m mean wind speed (WS, m/s), 1-h precipitation (Pre, mm), and 10-min mean visibility (Vis, m).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.3. Trend analysis</title>
<p>Trend analysis is usually used for the analysis of temporal dynamics of air pollutants to explore the interannual rate of pollutant changes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">16</xref>). In this paper, the rate of change of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China from 2013 to 2018 was analyzed based on the trend analysis method, which is calculated as Equation (1):</p>
<disp-formula id="E1"><label>(1)</label><mml:math id="M1"><mml:mtable class="eqnarray" columnalign="left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi>d</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>O</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:msup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
<p>Where O<sub>3</sub> indicates the O<sub>3</sub> concentration of each cell; <italic>n</italic> indicates the time span, here the time span is 6; and <italic>i</italic> is the time unit.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.4. Population exposure risk model</title>
<p>Previous studies have shown that significant heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of air quality concentrations and population density leads to major spatial differences in the exposure risks of populations to air quality (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">17</xref>). In addition, health risks due to exposure to pollutants are usually defined as a function of the multiplication of population density and pollutant concentration (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">18</xref>). Although the exposure risk intensity in the area can be quantified to some extent, it cannot distinguish the severity of the local area relative to the whole. To address this issue, we introduced a model for the relative exposure risk of the population attributable to O<sub>3</sub> exposure, as shown in Equation (2), which can evaluate the exposure status in each pixel of the cells (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">19</xref>):</p>
<disp-formula id="E2"><label>(2)</label><mml:math id="M2"><mml:mtable class="eqnarray" columnalign="left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:munderover accentunder="false" accent="false"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:munderover></mml:mstyle><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>C</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
<p>where <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> indicates the risk of population exposure in grid cell <italic>i</italic>; <italic>P</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> indicates the number of exposed populations in grid cell <italic>i</italic>; <italic>C</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> indicates the O<sub>3</sub> concentration in grid cell <italic>i</italic>, and <italic>n</italic> indicates the total number of grid cells in the study area. To better reflect the spatial difference of relative population exposure risk, we categorized the population exposure risk as extremely low risk, low risk, lower risk, higher risk, high risk, and extremely high risk by using the reclassification method in ArcGIS10.8 software. The corresponding exposure risk values are <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> = 0, 0 &#x0003C; <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> &#x02264; 1, 1 &#x0003C; <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> &#x02264; 2, 2 &#x0003C; <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> &#x02264; 3, 3 &#x0003C; <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>&#x02264; 5 and <italic>R</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>&#x0003E; 5, respectively. A higher value of <italic>R</italic> indicates a higher exposure risk.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.5. Health risk model</title>
<p>In this study, a standard damage function was applied to estimate the population of premature deaths from respiratory diseases due to O<sub>3</sub> exposure. The specific equations are shown in Equations (3) and (4), and the relationships shown in the following equations have been extensively applied in previous studies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">14</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>).</p>
<disp-formula id="E3"><label>(3)</label><mml:math id="M3"><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>{</mml:mo> <mml:mrow><mml:mtable><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>&#x003B2;</mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x02212;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x0003E;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x02264;</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mrow> </mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
<disp-formula id="E4"><label>(4)</label><mml:math id="M4"><mml:mtable class="eqnarray" columnalign="left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mi>&#x00394;</mml:mi><mml:mi>M</mml:mi><mml:mtext>&#x000A0;</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mtext>&#x000A0;&#x000A0;</mml:mtext><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mi>o</mml:mi><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&#x000D7;</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
<p>where <italic>RR</italic> is the relative risk; (<italic>RR</italic>&#x02212;<italic>1</italic>)/<italic>RR</italic> is the attributable fraction; <italic>x</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> is the O<sub>3</sub> concentration in a city <italic>i</italic> or grid <italic>i</italic>; <italic>x</italic><sub>0</sub> is the threshold concentration; &#x003B2; is the exposure-response coefficient, which represents the additional health risk associated with an increase in unit O<sub>3</sub> concentration (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">22</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">23</xref>); &#x00394;<italic>M</italic> is the number of premature deaths of respiratory diseases attributable to exposure to the O<sub>3</sub> environment; <italic>y</italic><sub>0</sub> is the baseline mortality rate of respiratory diseases, and <italic>pop</italic> is the number of the exposed population. In this study, the mortality rate of respiratory diseases was obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, where the crude mortality rate of respiratory diseases <italic>y</italic><sub>0</sub> (1/100,000) in urban China from 2013 to 2018 was, 76.61, 74.17, 73.36, 69.03, 67.20 and 68.02, respectively. &#x003B2; values in this study were obtained from Shang et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">24</xref>), per 10 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup> with a value of 0.48% (95% CL: 0.38%, 0.58%). Song et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">25</xref>) concluded that the exposure-response coefficients obtained from a meta-analysis by Shang et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">24</xref>) based on a 33&#x02013;time series and case-crossover study conducted could to some extent reflect the health risks attributed to air pollution in China. Meanwhile, which has widely been used in several past studies for China (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">26</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">27</xref>).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.6. Multi-scale geographically weighted regression</title>
<p>Compared with the classical geographically weighted regression model (GWR), the MGWR model was a flexible regression model (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">28</xref>). Each regression coefficient was obtained based on local regression, and the bandwidth is specific. In addition, the GWR model uses weighted least squares in the fitting operation, while the MGWR model was equivalent to a generalized additive model (GAM), which could perform regression analysis on spatial variables with linear or non-linear relationships, and was also an effective tool for dealing with various complex non-linear relationships of spatial variables (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">29</xref>). Assuming that there are <italic>n</italic> observations, for observation <italic>i</italic> &#x02208; {1,2,3,&#x02026;, <italic>n</italic>} at location (<italic>U</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>, <italic>V</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>), the MGWR were calculated as follows (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">30</xref>):</p>
<disp-formula id="E5"><label>(5)</label><mml:math id="M5"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>y</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mtext>&#x000A0;</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mtext>&#x000A0;</mml:mtext><mml:msub><mml:mi>&#x003B2;</mml:mi><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>U</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>V</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle='true'><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo> <mml:mrow><mml:mi>j</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>&#x003B2;</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:mi>w</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>U</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>V</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>i</mml:mi><mml:mi>j</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>&#x003B5;</mml:mi><mml:mi>i</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
<p>where <italic>y</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub> is the response variable O<sub>3</sub> concentration, &#x003B2;<sub>0</sub>(<italic>U</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>, <italic>V</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>) is the intercept, <italic>X</italic><sub><italic>ij</italic></sub> is the <italic>j</italic><sub><italic>th</italic></sub> predictor variable <italic>i</italic>, &#x003B2;<sub><italic>bwj</italic></sub>(<italic>U</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>, <italic>V</italic><sub><italic>i</italic></sub>) is the <italic>j</italic><sub><italic>th</italic></sub> coefficient, <italic>bwj</italic> in &#x003B2;<sub><italic>bwj</italic></sub> indicates the bandwidth used for calibration of the <italic>jth</italic> conditional relationship, &#x003B5;<sub><italic>i</italic></sub> is the error term. In addition, the spatial kernel function type selected during the model operation is bisquare, the bandwidth search type is golden, and the model parameter initialization type takes GWR estimation as the initial estimation model.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>2.7. Research framework</title>
<p>This study used the trend analysis method, spatial autocorrelation model, population exposure risk model, exposure-response function, and MGWR model to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern, exposure risk, health risk, and driving factors of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in China from 2013 to 2018. Firstly, we use the trend analysis method and spatial autocorrelation model to explore the changing trend and spatial-temporal distribution of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in China. Secondly, we selected the population exposure risk model and exposure-response function to investigate the population exposure risk and health risk attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution, and discussed their temporal and spatial correlation characteristics. Finally, we use the MGWR model to reveal the dominant factors of spatial distribution difference of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in China. Additionally, in this study we used O<sub>3</sub> concentration reanalysis data at 10 &#x000D7; 10 km resolution and population raster data at 1 &#x000D7; 1 km resolution to investigate the exposure risks and health risks attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution. To spatially match the 10 &#x000D7; 10 km O<sub>3</sub> concentration reanalysis data, we used the aggregation module of ArcGIS10.6 software to quantitatively change the spatial resolution of the 1 km &#x000D7; 1 km population data. During the aggregation calculation, the output image element cell size was set to 10 &#x000D7; 10 km, i.e., 0.01&#x000B0; &#x000D7; 0.01&#x000B0;, and the nearest neighbor assignment method was selected for the aggregation technique. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2</xref> shows the research framework of this paper.</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float">
<label>Figure 2</label>
<caption><p>Research framework.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0002.tif"/>
</fig></sec></sec>
<sec id="s3">
<title>3. Results</title>
<sec>
<title>3.1. Spatial and temporal distribution patterns</title>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3</xref> shows the temporal and spatial distribution and changing trend of the annual average concentration of MDA8 (AMDA8, O<sub>3</sub>) from 2013 to 2017 in China. From 2013 to 2018, the annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China were 110.75, 108.21, 111.13, 115.57, 120.49, and 115.95 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively, and changed at a rate of 1.84 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr increase (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3H</xref>). From a spatial and temporal perspective, the highest annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations were found in central China in 2013, 2015, and 2016, with annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations of 121.87, 118.84, and 122.78 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively. The highest annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in 2014, 2017, and 2018 were all found in East China, with annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations of 116.98, 135.03, and 137.91 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively. In comparison, the lowest O<sub>3</sub> concentration in 2013 occurred in the Northeast region (98.33 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>), the lowest O<sub>3</sub> concentrations from 2014 to 2017 occurred in the Southwest region of China (90.86, 94.43, 99.20, and 104.27 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>), and the lowest O<sub>3</sub> concentration in 2018 occurred in the Northwest region (103.44 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>) (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figures 3A</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">G</xref>). Since 2013, 89.62% of China&#x00027;s territory has experienced a significant increase in annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations, with 2.73% of the regions experiencing an average rate of change in annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentrations exceeding 5.00 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr. However, the rate of variation of O<sub>3</sub> concentration varies from region to region has strong spatial variability. The rate of change of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in the Central Plains urban agglomeration is the most variable in terms of the country, with its O<sub>3</sub> concentration change rate exceeding 4.0 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr. In contrast, the rate of change of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (&#x02212;0.3 &#x000B1; 1.0 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr), Southwest China (&#x02212;0.5 &#x000B1; 1.1 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr) and South China (&#x02212;1.0 &#x000B1; 1.4 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr) decreases significantly (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3G</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float">
<label>Figure 3</label>
<caption><p>The spatial distribution and trend of O<sub>3</sub> concentration from 2013 to 2018. Where, <bold>(A&#x02013;F)</bold> represents the spatial distribution of O<sub>3</sub> concentration; <bold>(G)</bold> represents the trend change of O<sub>3</sub> concentration; <bold>(H)</bold> represents the annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentration variation; <bold>(I)</bold> shows the annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentration change in different regions of China.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0003.tif"/>
</fig>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref> represents the spatial clustering characteristics of the rate of variation of O<sub>3</sub> concentration at county-level units in China from 2013 to 2018. The results show that the global Moran&#x00027;s <italic>I</italic> index is significant at the 1% level, indicating a consistent and enhanced positive spatial autocorrelation in the rate of variation of O<sub>3</sub> concentration (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4A</xref>). The results of the hot spot analysis show that there is a significant hot spot (HH) region for O<sub>3</sub> concentration growth rate, which is mainly contiguous and focused in Shaanxi, Shanxi, central Inner Mongolia, Beijing&#x02013;Tianjin&#x02013;Hebei (BTH), southwest Liaoning, central Henan, eastern Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong in China, which are the regions with the strongest O<sub>3</sub> growth rate in China. In addition, we found a significant cold spot area (LL) covering a large part of China (about 90% of the territory). These regions are mainly located in northeastern, southern, southwestern, eastern, and northwestern China, where the growth rate of O<sub>3</sub> concentration is relatively low and even decreasing regions are observed (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figures 4B</xref>, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">C</xref>). The standard deviation ellipsometric analysis evaluated the overall variations in the spatial pattern of O<sub>3</sub> concentration growth rate from 2013 to 2018 in China (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4D</xref>). It can be found that the regions with significantly increased O<sub>3</sub> concentration growth rates are mainly concentrated in BTH, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Henan, and Shaanxi in China. This result also indicates that the above-mentioned regions are the primary contributors of O<sub>3</sub> during the whole study period in China. Meanwhile, the center of the median growth rate of O<sub>3</sub> concentration is located north of the standard deviation ellipse arithmetic center, indicating that the growth rate of surface O<sub>3</sub> concentration is greater in northern China than in southern China.</p>
<fig id="F4" position="float">
<label>Figure 4</label>
<caption><p>Spatial clustering characteristics of the rate of change of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in county-level units in China, 2013&#x02013;2018. <bold>(A)</bold> Global spatial autocorrelation test results; <bold>(B)</bold> Spatial distribution of the spatial clustering of O<sub>3</sub> concentration variation rates; <bold>(C)</bold> Spatial distribution of cold and hot spots for the rate of change of O<sub>3</sub> concentration, in the cold and hot spot analysis we used Getis Ord Gi&#x0002A; analysis to calculate <italic>Z</italic> scores, where |<italic>Z</italic>scores| &#x0003E; 1.65 corresponds to <italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.10, |<italic>Z</italic>scores| &#x0003E; 1.96 corresponds to <italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05, |<italic>Z</italic>scores| &#x0003E; 2.58 corresponds to <italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.01. <italic>Z</italic> scores are negative indicating a cold spot, and a positive <italic>Z</italic> score indicates a hot spot; <bold>(D)</bold> Spatial distribution of the standard ellipse of the rate of variation of surface O<sub>3</sub> concentration and the center of change in China from 2013 to 2018.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0004.tif"/>
</fig></sec>
<sec>
<title>3.2. The population exposure risk and health risk</title>
<p>Overall, the total population exposed to O<sub>3</sub> &#x0003E; 160 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup> increased from 1.2% in 2013 to 28.9% in 2018, compared to a decrease in the population exposed to O<sub>3</sub> &#x0003C; 160 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup> from 7.2% in 2013 to 3.6% in 2018 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure 5</xref>). <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figures 6</xref>, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">7</xref> represents the spatial pattern of exposure risk levels attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution in 2013, 2015, and 2018. We found that most regions have remained at low (52.89&#x02013;55.73%) or extremely low (19.48&#x02013;20.48%) O<sub>3</sub> exposure risk levels over three time periods in China. From a temporal perspective, only 4.83% of the territory of the country was at high exposure to O<sub>3</sub> pollution in 2013, and this percentage increased to 6.45 and 7.19% in 2015 and 2018, respectively. Similarly, the area of the territory exposed to extremely high risk also exhibits a marked increasing trend, from 7.61% in 2013 to 9.62% in 2015 and further to 11.35% in 2018 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figures 7A</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">C</xref>). Spatially, the distribution patterns of O<sub>3</sub> exposure risk levels were similar for the three time periods of 2013, 2015, and 2018 in China. With the rapid increase of O<sub>3</sub> concentration in the North China Plain, the high exposure risk level regions of BTH and YRD have been continuous, which constitute a high O<sub>3</sub> exposure risk level aggregation area including the Bohai Rim, YRD, Pearl River Delta (PRD), Shanxi and Guanzhong Plain urban clusters. Spatially, the distribution patterns of O<sub>3</sub> exposure risk levels were similar for the three time periods of 2013, 2015, and 2018 in China. In contrast, the extremely low risk and lower risk areas of O<sub>3</sub> pollution are widely distributed in China, which is mainly located in most regions of northwest, southwest, and northeast in China (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figures 7D</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">F</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F5" position="float">
<label>Figure 5</label>
<caption><p>Probability distribution of the total population exposed to different O<sub>3</sub> concentrations from 2013 to 2018. The red and gray bars indicate the total population and the proportion of the population exposed to different O<sub>3</sub> concentrations, respectively.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0005.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F6" position="float">
<label>Figure 6</label>
<caption><p>Proportion of regions with different O<sub>3</sub> exposure risk levels to the total land area (%).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0006.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F7" position="float">
<label>Figure 7</label>
<caption><p>Spatial distribution pattern of population exposure risk levels attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution from 2013 to 2018. <bold>(A&#x02013;C)</bold> Indicates the spatial distribution of population exposure risk levels in 2013, 2015, and 2018, respectively; <bold>(D&#x02013;F)</bold> Indicates the spatial clustering of population exposure risk levels in 2013, 2015, and 2018, respectively.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0007.tif"/>
</fig>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8</xref> indicates the spatial and temporal distribution of premature deaths from respiratory diseases attributable to O<sub>3</sub> exposure from 2013 to 2018. Overall, there was an average of over 24,000 premature deaths from respiratory diseases due to O<sub>3</sub> exposure per year in China from 2013 to 2018, and the growth rate fluctuated at 1,178 cases per year (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05). Specifically, the number of premature deaths attributable to O<sub>3</sub> exposure increased from 236,200 in 2013 to 272,300 in 2018, an increase of 36,100 cases compared to 2013. Spatially, the regions with &#x0003C;500 cases of premature death due to O<sub>3</sub> exposure are mainly located in Tibet, Qinghai, east of Xinjiang, west of Sichuan, west of Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang; the regions with more than 500 cases are mainly located in the region east of Hu line, mainly including most of eastern China and western Xinjiang, central Inner Mongolia, southern Gansu, most of southern China, most of northern China, and Liaoning in northeast China. The regions with more than 1,000 cases are mainly located in BTH, Sichuan&#x02013;Chongqing region, Fenwei Plain, East China Plain, Jianghan Plain, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta region. Meanwhile, the regions with more than 1,000 cases of premature death due to O<sub>3</sub> exposur e are further expanding over time.</p>
<fig id="F8" position="float">
<label>Figure 8</label>
<caption><p>Spatial distribution of premature deaths attributable to O<sub>3</sub> exposure in China, 2013 to 2018. <bold>(A&#x02013;F)</bold> indicates the spatial distribution of premature death population attributable to O<sub>3</sub> exposure at the prefecture-level city scale from 2013 to 2018 in China, respectively.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0008.tif"/>
</fig></sec>
<sec>
<title>3.3. The driver of the difference in the spatial distribution of O<sub>3</sub></title>
<p>Multicollinearity refers to the distortion of model estimates due to significant correlations between the independent variables in the linear modeling regression process. Therefore, before conducting model regression analysis, to test whether there is multicollinearity between each explanatory variable, we use variance inflation factor (VIF) to test the multicollinearity problem between each explanatory variable, and previous studies have shown that when VIF &#x02265; 10, it indicates that there is a serious multicollinearity problem between the dependent variable and the independent variable. multicollinearity problem, which should be removed from the actual model operation. The collinearity test in this study was performed in SPSS 25.0 software and the results of the analysis showed that the range of VIF values for all explanatory variables was 1.000&#x02013;9.765, which indicates that there was no cointegration between the dependent and independent variables. <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref> indicates the diagnostic information of the MGWR model for the socioeconomic and meteorological factors. In terms of the number of valid parameters, the goodness&#x02013;of&#x02013;fit <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> for the responses of socioeconomic and meteorological factors to O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are 0.861 and 0.799, respectively, and the residual sum of squares (RSS) is 136.297 and 136.51 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively, with the absolute values of the deficit information criterion (AIC) and the log-likelihood value (Log-likelihood) &#x0003C; 5,000. These regression results indicate that MGWR uses fewer parameters to obtain regression results that are closer to the true values and can be fully used to assess the relationship between O<sub>3</sub> pollution and socioeconomic and meteorological factors.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T1">
<label>Table 1</label>
<caption><p>Diagnostic information of MGWR model.</p></caption>
<table frame="box" rules="all">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left" style="background-color:#919497;color:#ffffff"><bold>Evaluation indicators</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center" style="background-color:#919497;color:#ffffff"><bold>Socio-economic factors</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center" style="background-color:#919497;color:#ffffff"><bold>Meteorological factors</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Residual sum of squares (RSS)</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">136.297</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">136.506</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Log-likelihood</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">&#x02212;423.861</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">&#x02212;418.699</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Degree of Dependency (DoD)</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.498</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.476</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">AIC</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,160.521</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,045.466</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">AICc</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,220.301</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,083.609</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">BIC</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,925.094</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,515.614</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left"><italic>R<sup>2</sup></italic></td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.861</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.799</td>
</tr> <tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Adj. <italic>R<sup>2</sup></italic></td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.835</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.763</td>
</tr></tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9">Figure 9</xref> indicates the spatial distribution of regression coefficients of socio-economic factors. The high values (&#x0003E;0.27) of regression coefficients for the total population are mainly located in North and East China, where the total population is significantly and positively correlated with its corresponding O<sub>3</sub> concentration. The influence of the share of secondary industry on surface O<sub>3</sub> in East and North China is significantly higher than that in other regions, and its regression coefficient exceeds 0.08. We also find that over 80% of the regional disposable income per capita is positively correlated with O<sub>3</sub>, with regression coefficients ranging from 0.07 to 0.36. In contrast, Guangdong, Shandong, and Northeast provinces show a significant negative correlation between disposable income per capita and O<sub>3</sub>, with regression coefficients, were below &#x02212;0.02. The industrial dust emissions in Sichuan and Chongqing are significantly (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.001) positively correlated with the corresponding O<sub>3</sub> concentration with a regression coefficient &#x0003E; 0.52, while industrial dust emissions in cities located in East China are significantly (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.01) negatively correlated with the corresponding O<sub>3</sub> concentration with a regression coefficient ranging from &#x02212;0.53 to &#x02212;0.25, where O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in cities located in eastern Jiangsu and Anhui provinces are more affected by the negative correlation of industrial dust emissions. The NOx emissions were significantly and positively correlated with O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in Central China, East China, South China, Sichuan and Chongqing, and parts of Southwest and Northwest China (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05), with regression coefficients ranging from 0.60 to 1.26. There was a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.01) negative correlation between VOCs emissions and O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, and Guangxi cities with regression coefficients ranging from &#x02212;0.53 to &#x02212;0.35.</p>
<fig id="F9" position="float">
<label>Figure 9</label>
<caption><p>The spatial distribution of regression coefficients for the major socioeconomic factors of Pop <bold>(A)</bold>, S_GDP <bold>(B)</bold>, P_GDP <bold>(C)</bold>, Dust <bold>(D)</bold>, NOx <bold>(E)</bold>, and VOCs <bold>(F)</bold>.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0009.tif"/>
</fig>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10">Figure 10</xref> shows the spatial differences in the effects of various meteorological factors on O<sub>3</sub> concentration. It can be found that the temperature of cities in North, East, and Northeast China showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05) positive correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentration, with regression coefficients ranging from 0.23 to 0.49. The relative humidity was negatively correlated with O<sub>3</sub> concentration in all cities during the study period. Among them, cities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, north-central Hebei, northwestern Shanxi, western Inner Mongolia, and northwestern Ningxia and northern Shaanxi showed a weak negative correlation between relative humidity and O<sub>3</sub> concentration with a non-significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003E; 0.05) regression coefficient of &#x0003C; &#x02212;0.07. In contrast, cities in southern Zhejiang, southern Anhui, Jiangxi, central Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, and cities in Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi regions showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.01) strong negative correlation between relative humidity (Hum) and its corresponding O<sub>3</sub> concentration with regression coefficients ranging from &#x02212;0.18 to &#x02212;0.15. Wind speed (WS) showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05) negative correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Guangxi, southern Henan, Hubei, eastern Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Chongqing regions, and northern Shanxi, with regression coefficients ranging from &#x02212;0.02 to &#x02212;0.06. It is particularly noteworthy that cities in BTH, southwestern Shanxi, northern Henan, central Shaanxi, Ningxia, southern Gansu, western Shandong, and Anhui have a significant positive correlation between their wind speed and O<sub>3</sub> concentration with regression coefficients &#x0003E;0.45. For air pressure, cities located in northern China showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05) negative correlation between air pressure (Pa) and O<sub>3</sub> concentration, with regression coefficients ranging from &#x02212;3.6 &#x000D7; 10<sup>&#x02212;3</sup> to &#x02212;1.3 &#x000D7; 10<sup>&#x02212;3</sup>. Precipitation showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05) positive correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentration in Heilongjiang, Jilin, South China, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with regression coefficients ranging from 3.93 to 19.21, while other regions showed negative correlations. Visibility was positively correlated with O<sub>3</sub> concentration in all cities.</p>
<fig id="F10" position="float">
<label>Figure 10</label>
<caption><p>The spatial distribution of regression coefficients for the major meteorological factors of TEM <bold>(A)</bold>, Hum <bold>(B)</bold>, WS <bold>(C)</bold>, Pa <bold>(D)</bold>, Pre <bold>(E)</bold>, and Vis <bold>(F)</bold>.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="fpubh-11-1131753-g0010.tif"/>
</fig></sec></sec>
<sec id="s4">
<title>4. Discussion</title>
<sec>
<title>4.1. Spatial distribution difference of O<sub>3</sub> concentration</title>
<p>The results of the spatial and temporal pattern analysis of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations show that East, Central, and North China are the regions with the highest growth of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China from 2013 to 2018, which is mainly attributed to the huge amount of anthropogenic emissions. The areas of East, Central, and North China are one of the most densely populated and industrially developed regions in China, and the massive industrial activities, transportation, and human activities result in the emission of large amounts of O<sub>3</sub> precursors. In contrast, Southwest and South China are the regions with the largest decreases in O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in China. Previous studies have found that Southwest and Northwest China are located in high-latitude regions, and their corresponding atmospheric vertical exchange and photochemical reactions are stronger due to the special topography and intense solar radiation compared to inland regions, resulting in higher background values of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in these regions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">9</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">31</xref>). However, the extent of the influence of solar radiation on O<sub>3</sub> in southwest and southern China is significantly weaker than the influence of anthropogenic emissions compared to the dramatic increase in O<sub>3</sub> concentrations due to strong anthropogenic emissions in East, Central, and North China (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">32</xref>).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>4.2. Spatial heterogeneity of O<sub>3</sub> concentration drivers</title>
<p>There are strong spatial variations in the influence of different drivers on O<sub>3</sub>. Relative to lower population density regions, a larger population size implies more energy consumption and pollution emissions, meanwhile, it also further compresses the green area of cities, leading to a significant reduction in the ability of cities to mitigate air pollution, which better explains why the positive correlation between population size and O<sub>3</sub> concentration is significantly higher in densely populated northern and eastern China than in other regions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">33</xref>). Previous studies have shown that industrial emissions are the predominant source of air pollution (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">34</xref>). Our study found that the share of secondary industry in GDP had a significant positive correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentration, especially in central China, and eastern China, where industrial production is dominant, and the contribution of urban industrial production to O<sub>3</sub> concentration is stronger than in other regions. At the urban scale, the formation of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations depends on the VOCs&#x02013;NOx ratio (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">35</xref>). In general, the higher the NOx emissions in cities, the lower the VOCs&#x02013;NOx ratio. For example, the formation of O<sub>3</sub> in some cities located in Central and Northern China is often limited by VOCs (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">36</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">37</xref>). In these cities, the reduction of VOCs emissions decreases the formation of O3, but the reduction of NOx emissions increases the formation of O<sub>3</sub>. This chemical reaction tends to depend on the amount of VOCs and NOx emissions; the larger the emissions the more intense their reaction and the larger the O<sub>3</sub> emissions generated (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">38</xref>). In addition, industrial dust emissions indirectly affect solar radiation intensity by affecting atmospheric visibility, which further contributes to the O<sub>3</sub> photochemical reaction rate (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">39</xref>).</p>
<p>Temperature is an important ambient condition for photochemical reactions, and higher temperatures can promote the rapid production of O<sub>3</sub> concentration, therefore, temperature and O<sub>3</sub> concentration are mostly positively correlated, especially in cities in Northern, Eastern, and Northeastern China where the solar temperature is higher in the warm season (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">40</xref>). The wind speed has a diffusion and transport effect on pollutants in the atmosphere. For example, O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in cities in Northeast, South, Central, and East China, and Sichuan and Chongqing regions showed a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05) negative correlation with wind speed. However, our results found a significant positive correlation between O<sub>3</sub> concentration and wind speed in most cities located in the North China Plain. Li et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">41</xref>) attributed the significant positive correlation between O<sub>3</sub> concentration and wind speed in the North China Plain region to the influence of warm-season burning winds, especially from June to August each year, when the burning winds blow from the mountains to the northern and western parts of the North China Plain, bringing dry the hot air further leads to a higher temperature in the region, which accelerates the photochemical reaction of O<sub>3</sub> production to some extent. Relative humidity has a negative correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentration. Previous studies have shown that water vapor can not only absorb and release energy through changes in the aqueous phase but also undergo internal reactions, especially when controlling for other influencing factors, higher relative humidity leads to higher water vapor saturation, resulting in easy removal of O<sub>3</sub> and its precursors and lower O<sub>3</sub> concentrations (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">42</xref>). In addition, water vapor can reduce solar ultraviolet radiation through extinction mechanisms, thus affecting photochemical reactions and O<sub>3</sub> concentrations (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">43</xref>).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>4.3. The O<sub>3</sub> control policy implications</title>
<p>In summary, O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China is gradually increasing, and more and more of China&#x00027;s population is exposed to high O<sub>3</sub> concentration pollution. Scientific and effective reduction of O<sub>3</sub> concentration exposure levels in China is crucial to reduce population exposure risks (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">44</xref>). Under these circumstances, this study proposes policy recommendations on how to reduce O<sub>3</sub> concentrations in Chinese cities from the perspective of the drivers affecting the spatial distribution of O<sub>3</sub> and epidemiology. For O<sub>3</sub> pollution areas dominated by O<sub>3</sub> precursors (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO), the authorities can ensure that their emissions comply with government regulations by optimizing the industrial structure and reducing the emissions of O<sub>3</sub> precursors. Meanwhile, the governmental department should focus on the synergistic management of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> compound pollution. Research shows that NOx is not only an important precursor for O<sub>3</sub> generation but also an important precursor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>). Therefore, strengthening the NOx deep regulation and emission reduction is a key step to promote synergistic control. Furthermore, the O<sub>3</sub> abatement measures in the future should pay attention to different seasonal O<sub>3</sub> control measures and strengthen regional cooperation for O<sub>3</sub> pollution prevention.</p>
<p>For O<sub>3</sub> pollution regions dominated by meteorological factors, the department should forecast the variation of O<sub>3</sub> concentration due to the change of meteorological factors promptly, meanwhile develop a detailed O<sub>3</sub> pollution early warning program to reduce the risk of public exposure and explore a sustainable development path for O<sub>3</sub> pollution management in China. From an epidemiological perspective, to protect public health and improve the status of O<sub>3</sub> pollution, it is crucial to establish studies of health effects attributed to O<sub>3</sub> exposure from a national perspective. In addition, it is important for relevant government departments to establish a mechanism to revise the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for regulatory assessment and health risk prediction of future O<sub>3</sub> air quality standards in China (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">46</xref>).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>4.4. Research limitations and future prospects</title>
<p>Surface O<sub>3</sub> distribution has strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and there are significant differences in O<sub>3</sub> concentrations with time scales. This study only focused on the interannual spatial variability characteristics of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations, neglecting the seasonal variability of O<sub>3</sub> concentration changes. Furthermore, due to the lack of basic research data and inadequate research methods, this study only focused on the number of premature respiratory deaths attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution in the assessment of health risks attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution, neglecting the all-cause premature death group. Additionally, using the same exposure risk coefficient (&#x003B2;) may lead to spatial errors in the estimated health risks due to significant spatial differences in O<sub>3</sub> exposure levels. For example, Wang et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>) estimated the population of premature deaths from respiratory diseases caused by O<sub>3</sub> pollution between 2013 and 2017 in China using the method of Turner et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">47</xref>), and their results found an average of 186,000 deaths from respiratory diseases due to O<sub>3</sub> pollution during the study period. This is slightly lower compared to our findings. A primary reason for this is that our study and Wang et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>) used different exposure response coefficients and critical thresholds. In addition, the interpolation of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations at large scales of pollution can also cause large errors in the assessment results. Therefore, in the future, we hope to conduct a detailed and comprehensive analysis of seasonal differences in O<sub>3</sub> pollution and all-cause health risks in China by utilizing more detailed surface O<sub>3</sub> monitoring data and meta-analysis methods. To provide a scientific basis for the improvement of O<sub>3</sub> pollution in China.</p></sec></sec>
<sec id="s5">
<title>5. Conclusions</title>
<p>In this study, we quantitatively investigated the spatial and temporal patterns, trends, population exposure risks, health risks, and drivers of surface ozone in China from 2013 to 2018. We observed the annual average O<sub>3</sub> concentration of China increased significantly at a rate of change of 1.84 &#x003BC;g/m<sup>3</sup>/yr from 2013 to 2018 (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05, <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> = 0.561). The significant increase was mainly distributed in East China, Central China, and North China. Meanwhile, the growth rate of O<sub>3</sub> concentration has a consistent and enhanced positive spatial autocorrelation (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05), and there are significant hot and cold spots areas. During the research period, there was an average of over 24,000 premature deaths from respiratory diseases attributed to O<sub>3</sub> exposure in China from 2013 to 2018, and the growth rate fluctuated at 1,178 per year (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.05). Spatially, there was a consistency in the spatial distribution of exposure risk and health risk of populations exposed to O<sub>3</sub>. The results of the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model reveal spatial differences in the effect of various factors on O<sub>3</sub> concentration. The impact of the total population, disposable income, the share of secondary industry in GDP, and NOx emissions factors in eastern and northern regions are significantly greater than impacts in central and western regions. Meanwhile, we found that the effect of temperature on O<sub>3</sub> concentration in some cities in the north, east, and northeast is significantly higher than that in other regions, and relative humidity has a significant (<italic>p</italic> &#x0003C; 0.01) strong negative correlation with O<sub>3</sub> concentration in east, central, southwest and south China.</p></sec>
<sec sec-type="data-availability" id="s6">
<title>Data availability statement</title>
<p>The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found in the article/supplementary material.</p></sec>
<sec sec-type="author-contributions" id="s7">
<title>Author contributions</title>
<p>CH conceived the idea of the study and designed research, wrote the paper, discussed the results, and revised the manuscript. LZ conceived the idea of the study and design research, discussed the results, and revised the manuscript. XG involved in funding acquisition, resources, supervision, and analyzed the data. BL and JL discussed the results and revised the manuscript. QW analyzed the data, discussed the results, and revised the manuscript. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.</p></sec>
</body>
<back>
<sec sec-type="funding-information" id="s8">
<title>Funding</title>
<p>This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (2020CFB478).</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="conf1">
<title>Conflict of interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s9">
<title>Publisher&#x00027;s note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
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