AUTHOR=Moiynbayeva Sharapat , Akhmetov Valikhan , Narymbayeva Nazerke , Shaikova Kuralay , Makhanbetkulova Dinara , Bapayeva Magripa , Abdirova Tamara , Popova Tatyana , Karibayeva Indira 

TITLE=Health policy implications for cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and stroke in Central Asia: a decadal forecast of their impact on women of reproductive age

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2024

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1456187

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2024.1456187

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=Cardiovascular disease (CVD), Type 2 diabetes (DM2), and stroke are significant health concerns globally. Gaps persist in understanding the impact of these disorders on women of reproductive age in Central Asia. This study aimed to analyze the health policies implemented in Central Asian countries to address the healthcare needs of this demographic, as well as to forecast future trends in changes in prevalence rates, Years of Life Lost (YLL), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) for CVD, DM2, and stroke using publicly available data. Two data sources were utilized: health policy documents issued by the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, and data obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Forecasting models, including ARIMA, were employed to predict trends until 2030. The results indicate an anticipated increase in CVD prevalence from 1856.55 in 2020 to 2007.07 by 2029 in Kazakhstan, a subtle increase in Kyrgyzstan from 2492.22 to 2558.69 over 10 years, and similar trends in other countries. Analysis of policy documents revealed a lack of specific focus on addressing CVD, stroke, or DM2 outside the contexts of pregnancy and childbirth. Understanding these trends is crucial for informing targeted health interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the impact of these diseases on women's health in Central Asia.