AUTHOR=Gao Yudong , Zhou Yang , Luo Siyi , Chen Zhengji , Wang Yujue , Zha Zhiyan , Song Xiaoxiao 

TITLE=Application of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance in Kunming

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 13 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1601781

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2025.1601781

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=ObjectiveThe Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) has been widely used to assess seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate and subtropical regions. This is the first study to validate the use of MEM in a subtropical plateau environment.MethodsThis study applied the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) to establish influenza epidemic thresholds in Kunming, China, using virological surveillance data from 2011–2012 to 2023–2024.ResultsThe MEM model demonstrated high sensitivity (93%) and specificity (67%), with no detection lag for the 2023–2024 season. Epidemic thresholds (8%), which were notably lower than those in other subtropical regions, may potentially be attributed to Kunming's plateau monsoon climate.ConclusionThis study underscored MEM's adaptability in subtropical plateau settings and provided actionable thresholds for early outbreak response.