AUTHOR=Shen Li , Hua Yafang , Gu Chunfang , Tao Rong , Zhang Yuwei , Huang Bin , Yuan Mingqing , Wang Weibing , Huang Jian , Li Zhiping 

TITLE=Characteristics and trends of unintentional injuries among children and adolescents in Kunshan, China: a hospital-based retrospective study, 2018–2023

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 13 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1606347

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2025.1606347

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=ObjectiveThis study aimed to characterize the epidemiological trends and mechanisms of pediatric unintentional injuries in Kunshan, China (2018–2023) and to develop time series models to predict future trends.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on 77,379 pediatric unintentional injury cases, stratified by age, gender, and injury categories. Subgroup analyses targeted children under 5 years. To adjust for pandemic-related disruptions, separate comparisons between 2018 and 2023 were performed. Time series analysis employed an ARIMA model, with model selection based on information criteria and residual diagnostics, and a non-COVID-19 dataset (2018, 2019, and 2023) for forecasting future trends.ResultsMales constituted 62.76% of cases, with a mean age of 5.37 ± 3.55 years. The primary age groups were 3–6 years and 6–12 years, which accounted for 60% of the total population. Falls (21.36%) and transport injuries (4.00%) predominated, with limbs being the most injured body part (59.08%). Contusions/abrasions (41.54%) and sprains/strains (31.21%) were common. Subgroup analysis was performed in children under 5 years old, with 22,110 being males (57.5%) and 16,291 being females (42.5%). Among this group, falls and burns were identified as the most frequent incidents. Unintentional injury cases decreased significantly during COVID-19 (2020–2022). The refined ARIMA(1,1,2) (0,1,1)[12] model, excluding pandemic effects, achieved a mean absolute percentage error of 6.46% while revealing seasonal patterns and predicting a slight downward trend for 2024–2026.ConclusionPediatric unintentional injuries in Kunshan exhibited gender and age-specific patterns, with COVID-19 altering injury profiles. The ARIMA model can capture the seasonal patterns of unintentional injuries to a certain extent, facilitating public health planning and intervention strategies.