AUTHOR=Boromisa Ana-Maria 

TITLE=Depopulation and aging–challenges for Croatia's climate resilience

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sociology

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sociology/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2025.1564299

DOI=10.3389/fsoc.2025.1564299

ISSN=2297-7775

ABSTRACT=IntroductionClimate change and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies have significant socioeconomic implications. Conversely, socioeconomic developments shape the capacity to design and enforce climate policies, creating a feedback loop. This paper localizes the impact of Climate change in Croatia and explores the feedback between socio-economic development and climate change. The starting hypothesis is that limitations in human capital critically hinder climate-resilient development in Croatia.MethodsThe study uses climate data and literature to contextualize Croatia's climate vulnerability. A sector-specific analysis is conducted to identify key sectors for climate-resilient development based on their potential for emissions reduction, climate vulnerability, and current and potential economic importance. The current economic importance is evaluated based on contribution to GDP and employment, and key opportunities and obstacle for future growth are identified.ResultsClimate data and literature indicate that Croatia, a high-income EU member, is experiencing warming faster than the global average and ranks among the least climate-resilient high-income countries. A sector-specific analysis identifies the most critical sectors for Croatian climate-resilient development based on their emission reduction potential, climate vulnerability, and growth opportunities. Among these are sectors that contribute the most to GDP and employment—such as tourism, construction, and healthcare —which already suffer from significant labor shortages. The results indicate that a shrinking workforce is the key constraint for implementation of climate-resilient development.DiscussionSignificant improvements in labor productivity, higher participation rates, integration of foreign workers in the labor market, and efforts to address skills shortages are necessary. This presents a challenge, given increasing damages from extreme climate events, ongoing depopulation, a limited supply of a highly educated workforce, and low participation in lifelong learning. For climate-resilient development, it is essential to design policies that adequately address aging and depopulation –both of which limit economic growth and reduce capacity for climate adaptation.ConclusionsFindings of the Croatian case offer insights for Mediterranean and island countries reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like tourism (e.g., Greece, Thailand). The high-income yet low-resilience paradox is relevant for regions such as Southern Europe, Australia, and California. EU membership highlights institutional misalignments between supranational climate agendas (e.g., the European Green Deal) and subnational demographic realities. These dynamics are relevant to aging societies (Japan, Germany) and post-industrial economies (Poland, Canada) navigating green transitions, emphasizing the need to integrate demographic strategies into climate governance.