Abstract
The countries of the Arabian Peninsula are at the forefront of climate change impacts. The future habitability of the region has been called into question, creating uncertainties regarding adaptation efforts. Governments, research donors and institutions as well as individual researchers have responded by investing in climate change research focusing on the region. The evidence has improved dramatically over the last three decades. This Mini Review takes stock of what is known and conducts a macro-trend assessment of available evidence to identify areas that require greater attention. With the knowledge, resources and infrastructure available to it, the region is well positioned to overcome risks and become a global leader in arid living. We propose a research agenda to guide the next decade. If capitalized upon, this can transition the region from being at the forefront of climate change risks to the forefront of resilient living.
Highlights
The Arabian Peninsula is at the forefront of climate change impacts, posing potentially existential threats.
More than a decade of research has improved available evidence, a new Research Agenda is required to guide the next decade.
With the knowledge, resources and infrastructure available to it, the region could become the forefront of resilient arid living.
1 Introduction
The Arabian Peninsula region is reported to be one of the forefronts of existential climate change threats (; Keynoush, 2023; Vohra, 2021). Researchers, journalists, and think tanks have raised concerns about the region's future habitability due to wet bulb temperatures, heat stress and sea level rise (Mekelberg, 2022; France24, 2021; ). This has raised questions regarding the uncertainties associated with adaptation and resilience. The risks include a highly urbanized region facing extreme climatic challenges (Lewis, 2021; ) and, as noted in a 2016 Nature Climate Change Letter, conditions that could surpass the limits of survivability (Pal and Eltahir, 2016). In seeking to understand, assess and respond to these challenges, governments, research donors and individual scholars have contributed a foundation of evidence. For the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; hereafter GCC), research on climate change has increased dramatically. From only 4 papers published for the entire region in the year 2000, in 2023 alone there were nearly 300 publications related to climate change and a total of almost 1,700 publications. The evidence base has improved dramatically.
The expansion of research has set an important foundation to understand the risks and hazards facing the region. While the Arabian Peninsula faces similar challenges, much of the research and innovation done to-date has largely been uncoordinated and often conducted in national and/or institutional silos. As a result, the available research has some strengths (e.g., water, energy, temperature) but it also has gaps (e.g., infrastructure, governance, sea level rise). This Mini Review surveys the risks and hazards that climate change presents, drawing upon the available evidence, and then assessing the macro-trends of research across the GCC to inform a research agenda for the next decade. Based upon the strengths and absences of climate change research from across the region, we put forth a research agenda with specific calls to action for governments, funders, research institutions. Given the opportunities that are available to the region, if it is able to adapt and overcome the challenges, it could become the forefront of resilience in arid environments.
2 Contextualizing climate change issues in the Arabian Peninsula
In the Arabian Peninsula, the impacts of climate change manifest through a variety of environmental shifts, putting additional pressure on the already arid desert climate condition of the region. These variations are driven by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and the intensification of weather systems, which are having profound impacts on the region. One prominent effect is the increase in temperature extremes, leading to hotter summers, paradoxically colder winters, droughts, floods and intensified sandstorms (Wehrey et al., 2023; Samborska, 2024). Facets of climate change in the GCC highlight wide-ranging impacts, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate and adapt to its effects. This section contextualizes the climate change issues before assessing the existing evidence.
2.1 Temperature
The GCC continues to set new records for the warmest year on record, validating an increasing temperature trend (NASA, 2024). The challenges posed by increasing temperatures are particularly acute in the GCC region, where temperature increases are among the most severe worldwide. The consequences of rising temperatures are impacting health and wellbeing (e.g., ability to engage in outdoor activities) and economic activity (e.g., ability to engage in outdoor labor; Safieddine et al., 2022). The region includes highly urban populations experiencing intensified heat due to urban heat islands (Rajeswari et al., 2024; ), a worsening of already poor air quality (; Farahat, 2022) and reduced growing seasons for food security (Karanisa et al., 2021; ). The combination of factors (e.g., heat stress, air quality, wet bulb temperatures) are expected to increase disease burdens (Fadda, 2020). Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, are expected to worsen such negative impacts (Waidelich et al., 2024; ). Economies and populations of the GCC are particularly vulnerable to these climate stresses, with wet-bulb temperatures requiring additional supportive and safety infrastructure (Pal and Eltahir, 2016). Such changes will increase the demand of energy for cooling as well as water, the latter obtained through energy-intensive desalination co-generation plants, which will strain electrical grids and increase greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions (the regions energy is primarily drawn from hydrocarbons).
2.2 Rainfall, flooding and sea level rise
The Arabian Peninsula is an arid and semi-arid region that is already water-stressed (UN Water, 2021; ), with its limited fresh water sources and groundwater sources being depleted (Saif et al., 2014; ). Expected changes to rainfall patterns may increase rainfall in parts of the GCC, which presents both opportunities (e.g., rainwater harvesting and storage) and risks (e.g., extreme events and flooding) (; Rao et al., 2024; Salimi and Al-Ghamdi, 2020). Additional rainfall can paradoxically lead to drought conditions as heavy rain falls in a short period, which the ground may not be able to absorb quickly enough, leading to rapid runoff rather than infiltration into the soil. This runoff can cause erosion and flooding, damaging the landscape and infrastructure (Gholami et al., 2023). Sea level rise may impact coastal infrastructure, which includes critical services such as desalination co-generation plants (Moossa et al., 2022). Experiences of extreme events to-date highlight the importance of resilient infrastructure to mitigate risks and utilize opportunities (Terry et al., 2023).
2.3 Biodiversity
Marine ecosystems around the Arabian Peninsula are already being negatively impacted by human activities, which is compounded by changes related to climate change. Sea surface temperatures (SST) have been rising at rates between 0.22 to 0.59 °C per decade (), intensifying pressures and expanding “dead zones” in the seas (Lachkar et al., 2019). The loss of coral reefs, sea grasses and mangroves is alarming (; ; Kleinhaus et al., 2020). Ocean acidification as well as the reliance upon desalination for water puts additional pressure on marine ecosystems (Paparella et al., 2022; ). The depletion of fish species is raising serious concern (), as a key local food security source. Much less is known about terrestrial biodiversity loss, although available evidence suggests a range of human activities as well as climate change pose significant risks for these species (; ). Biodiversity loss in fragile ecosystems risks ecosystem collapse (Solé and Simon, 2022), which would impact ecosystem services from food production to flood control (Mei-Hua and Shang-Lien, 2020; ).
2.4 Economies
The economy of the Arabian Peninsula is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons for exports and domestic use. As the global community commits to transitioning energy systems toward renewable energy sources, this shift poses a substantial challenge to the region's economic stability and livelihoods (; Gelan et al., 2021). Domestically, the GCC countries already exceed the world average in per capita electricity consumption, both in magnitude and acceleration (EIA, 2024). Seventy percent of the total power demand in GCC countries is attributed to air conditioning (KISR, 2019). Rising temperatures lead to greater reliance on air conditioning and cooling systems, which in turn increases energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This feedback loop risks a negative cycle not only of hydrocarbon consumption but also demands of energy infrastructure. Innovations in the energy sector have the potential to advance the transition at rates faster than many scenarios project (). While advancements in nuclear within the region support energy mix diversification, these also pose new risks (e.g., contamination) (; ). Additionally, the risks of bifurcated global trade may put pressure not only on domestic import and export (e.g., as a net food importing and energy exporting region) but also international investments, via the regions large sovereign wealth funds (; ; Ibrahim et al., 2020). The stability of the food system may be contested, as it encounters disruptions due to trade and conflict issues, extreme weather events, changing rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures (Habib-ur-Rahman et al., 2022; ). Some sectors highlighted by governments for economic diversification with the GCC (e.g., air travel, tourism) may face headwinds as they have large GHG footprints. For these reasons, governments across the region are working to transition to a knowledge-based economy (El Khatib et al., 2023; Mohamed et al., 2021) by encouraging new forms of entrepreneurship and innovation (Lee and Cameron, 2021; Muhammad Khurram and Muhammad Babar, 2020; ).
One of the interconnected and cross-cutting challenges that the above climate issues face relates to socio-political dimensions of governance. At the individual and household levels, the high per capital income has resulted in lifestyle patterns that put additional strain on energy, water and food systems. Growing populations further compound those pressures. On the national level, governments are expanding hydrocarbon extraction to fund transition strategies, which risk negative cycles of GHG emissions setting the adaptation requirements higher and higher. Nations themselves cannot adapt alone, effective transition requires regional approaches, which have proven challenging (since the establishment of the GCC as an intergovernmental union in 1981).
Recognizing the aforementioned challenges, the region also possesses advantages and opportunities that may facilitate adapting to and overcoming them. More so than many other regions of the world, the design of workplaces, cities, and infrastructure has been specifically tailored to address heat stress. Cooling is available in homes and workplaces, and in some parts of the GCC has been integrated much more broadly, such as in cooled public transit stations. Public transit systems are rapidly expanding, such as metro systems in Dubai, Doha and Riyadh. The region has abundant resources to draw upon, the trade of which is enabling a broader energy and sustainability transition. Compared to other regions, such as in Asia and North Africa, the region is demographically smaller (total of ~60 million people, nearly half that of Egypt and a quarter of Pakistan). It is home to a highly educated population. Much of the GCC is well connected for smart urban development. Examples are emerging of this, such as Msheireb and Lusail in Qatar as well as Masdar City in the UAE. It has much of the infrastructure in place for knowledge-based enterprises (World Bank, 2024). The region has some of the largest inflows of millionaires, attracting not only finances but innovation and entrepreneurship (). If successful, the region may not be at the forefront of climate change risks but emerge as an example of resilience.
3 Climate change research in the GCC
Researchers across the region and international collaborators, primarily supported by GCC-based research funding institutions, have responded proactively. Between 2000 and 2006, fewer than 60 papers were published on climate change in the GCC region, however in 2023 alone there were almost 300 publications on the topic (see Figure 1). In total, between 2000 and 2023, there have been 1,698 publications on GCC countries that have focused on issues related to climate change, with a steep increase in publications since 2020 (based on Scopus indexed publications). The distribution of publications by country generally aligns with population and economy size (the State of Qatar has the highest production on a per capita basis) and highlights the response of the region to generate evidence to adapt to a changing climate. This includes investing in research, development and innovation, resulting in hubs of knowledge production within national institutions such as Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia and Khalifa University in the UAE. While acknowledging the commitment and progress made over the last two decades, the expansion of research was largely done in national and/or institutional silos, resulting in a lack of coordination. This is important because the GCC shares many common challenges (e.g., Bahrain, Saudi, Qatar and the UAE all share coastlines on the eastern side of the Peninsula for adapting to sea level change and extreme weather events).
Figure 1
Our macro assessment of the available research (Figure 1) identifies areas where the focus has been strong and others where additional attention is required. Of the 1,698 publications on climate change from 2000 to 2023, we analyzed the Index Keywords (as listed on Scopus) to identify the keywords that were used in more than 10% of the papers (170 times), which are shown in Figure 1. Many of these keywords cover research areas that are expected, given the contextual outline presented in the previous section (e.g., water, energy, temperature as well as greenhouse gas related terms such as carbon, emissions, dioxide). In part, this reflects the priorities of the region. Yet, there are also challenges, such as the slow expansion of renewable energy and the occurrence of extreme events that overwhelm existing infrastructure (e.g., flooding due to heavy rainfall).
Regarding the areas where progress has been insufficient, we queried the literature to assess the extent to which it has been researched. We highlight several of these gaps by showing the comparatively low level of attention given. For example, very few papers have looked at infrastructure (13),1 an unexpected finding, while less than expected numbers of studies focused on sea level rise (79) and flooding (111) (). Education and behavior change were subject to relatively low levels of research (32 publications each). Likewise, the role of policies (147 papers) and governance (45 papers) were relatively low. Only 98 studies noted “cost” as a keyword. The lack of focus on policy, governance and cost suggests the majority of the evidence is technical in nature; integration and collaboration with the social sciences are needed to advance the implementation of research. This regional, longitudinal assessment provides the foundation for experts based in countries in the GCC working on climate change research to put forward a research agenda for the next decade.
4 Research agenda—call to action
We call for a change to the way research is done on climate change in the GCC. Specifically, this research agenda and call to action specifies four areas that are needed to drive knowledge to implementation: (1) greater interdisciplinarity in research, (2) enhanced regional research collaboration, (3) putting in place enabling policies and investing in strategic innovation, and (4) research to advance regional sovereignty. These research directions have the potential not only to advance knowledge, but reduce uncertainties and provide clarity for adaptation and resilience.
4.1 Interdisciplinarity
Climate science in the GCC has often taken a technical focus, providing evidence on a range of issues from temperature increases and sea level rise to biodiversity and rainfall patterns. The macro review of climate change research (Figure 1) shows that social sciences have not been a strong component of the overall research, as seen by far fewer references to Index Keywords such as policy or behavior change. This contributes to a disconnect between technical evidence generation and implementation, which requires an understanding of perceptions, attitudes, behaviors, governance structures, policies, laws and regulations, amongst other areas. Research donors can encourage, and indeed require, that interdisciplinary research is a key focus by requiring this in research grant proposals. Institutions can provide catalyst funds to build linkages across disciplinary domains to incentivize, while creating new objectives to track, collaborations and signal its importance. Positively, we are seeing signs of this (QDRI Council, 2026). However, interdisciplinarity also means fostering collaborations with society and government, which requires new ways of doing research (which could include, as an example, embedded secondments between academia, government and civil society to create common understandings and to build bridges (institutional and human)). National research donors can embed this into funding calls while regional entities, including the GCC Secretariat can facilitate spaces for sharing across scales and sectors.
4.2 Regional collaboration
Much of the GCC faces very similar climate-related challenges, yet regional collaboration is limited (). Synergies in research priorities and policies can be used to facilitate learning across research institutions and governments. Problem-based approaches can enable collaboration on regional issues, such as sea level rise or urban development. This would enable countries to address challenges faster and more effectively, hastening the evidence-to-implementation pathway. Mechanisms that this can use include collaborative research agendas across the region that are incentivized by regional research donors (e.g., requiring partners from more than one country or regional research calls). Regional research donors have prioritized sustainability and resilience as key focus areas, as have national visions and development plans in the GCC, making these collaborations pragmatic as well as mechanisms for enabling a more rapid innovation environment and sustainability transition. Such collaboration could link to the optimization of regional resources beyond research, such as via common markets and a connected grid. This requires much more investment into research on governance, regulation and policy, noted as a gap within climate research.
4.3 Enabling policies & strategic innovation
The establishment of science, technology and innovation strategies and policies are varied across the GCC (UNESCO, 2021) as are their Global Innovation Index rankings (WIPO, 2023). While there is variation, the region is relatively well positioned in global context. Most innovation research is conducted in the field of energy and material sciences, with Qatar being a forerunner in in per capita research production (). In addition to investing in renewable and hydrogen power research, the GCC would benefit significantly from advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, leveraging the availability of reservoirs suitable for CO2 injection. The region has a competitive advantage related to energy systems and markets, which can be utilized for CCS development and deployment. Material science innovation (e.g., energy storage, built environments, transportation, circularity) could position the region as a leader in an area of relevance for resilience. Urban development affects temperatures and thus micro-climate changes, especially in arid and hot regions like the GCC countries, where buildings consume a large amount of non-renewable energy to generate cooling and light energy. Green infrastructure (shading, parks, natural light, green roofs and spaces, walkable neighborhoods) reduce urban heat, which also reduces emissions through the integration of renewable energy sources (). Urban planning, building codes and development policies play a role in linking these with appropriate, accessible and efficient public transportation (Furlan et al., 2023). These shifts require infrastructure, but will only be effective with behavior change (Mehbub Anwar et al., 2023), which may require governmental incentives and disincentives to materialize ().
4.4 Regional sovereignty
Due to water scarcity and an arid climate, food production in the GCC is limited and the region is reliant upon trade to meet its food security. Research into plant science may develop heat tolerant, drought tolerant and/or salt tolerant crops. Studies in aquaculture may unlock food source potential for a region surrounded by the Red Sea, Arabian Sea and Arabian Gulf. These efforts can be done in parallel with research on innovative agriculture practices, such as vertical farming, sub soil irrigation, fertilizer element recovery from waste treatment plants and advanced water recycling. The minimal amount of research on education and behavior change over the last two decades will be increasingly important, as education will be critical to reduce food loss and waste, localize diets and shift to healthier consumption and lifestyle patterns (each of these intersecting with climate change stressors, on human health as well as agricultural production). Given that water scarcity is one of the most pressing challenges for the region, continued research needs to be directed toward innovative water management and recycling technologies, as well as artificial aquifer recharge, aquifer remote sensing, rain harvesting and transboundary groundwater management. Optimizing resources within the region will strengthen sovereignty, which is increasingly critical in times of polycrisis.
With the knowledge, resources, capacity and infrastructure available to it, the GCC region is well positioned to take chances and become a global leader in arid living. This includes being a global leader in arid environment agriculture (agri-tech, intelligent food production, seed science), climate adaptation and wellbeing, resilient infrastructure (design and operations, smart energy-water systems), the circular economy (materials, goods and cross-sectorial integration), as well as future energy markets (carbon and hydrogen products, carbon neutral/blue petrochemicals and advanced chemicals) and thereby become regional carbon hub for storage and trading and international climate cooperation and diplomacy. If capitalized upon, research and innovation can support the transition of the region from being at the forefront of climate change risks to the forefront of resilient living.
Statements
Author contributions
LC: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. DA: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft. EA: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft. NA: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft.
Funding
The author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. Research reported in this publication was supported by the Qatar Research Development and Innovation Council project [NPRP14C-0920-210017]. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of Qatar Research Development and Innovation Council.
Conflict of interest
The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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Footnotes
1.^For all of the keyword searches we used approaches to capture different forms of words, such as “govern”, “infrast” and “flood”, which includes all of the ways the words might complete (reducing the risk of missing words that use different forms, such as government, governance, governing, et cetera.
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Summary
Keywords
adaptation, Arabian Gulf, climate change, research agenda, resilience, resilience to climate change, sustainability
Citation
Cochrane L, Al-Mohannadi D, Aleisa E and Al Nasiri N (2026) The Arabian Peninsula at the forefront of climate change—setting the research agenda. Front. Sustain. 7:1833682. doi: 10.3389/frsus.2026.1833682
Received
18 March 2026
Revised
09 April 2026
Accepted
15 April 2026
Published
14 May 2026
Volume
7 - 2026
Edited by
Nathanial Matthews, Global Resilience Partnership, Sweden
Reviewed by
Medani Bhandari, Akamai University, United States
Updates
Copyright
© 2026 Cochrane, Al-Mohannadi, Aleisa and Al Nasiri.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Logan Cochrane, lcochrane@hbku.edu.qa
Disclaimer
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.