AUTHOR=Shankar S. Vishnu , Chandel Ashu , Gupta Rakesh Kumar , Sharma Subhash , Chand Hukam , Kumar Rakesh , Mishra Neha , Ananthakrishnan S. , Aravinthkumar A. , Kumaraperumal R. , Gowsar S. R. Naffees 

TITLE=Exploring the dynamics of arrivals and prices volatility in onion (Allium cepa) using advanced time series techniques

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

VOLUME=Volume 7 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1208898

DOI=10.3389/fsufs.2023.1208898

ISSN=2571-581X

ABSTRACT=Modeling the arrivals and prices of agricultural commodities is an essential requirement for farmers, consumers, and governmental organizations to make informed decisions. This is particularly important for perishable commodities such as vegetables, where spoilage can lead to significant losses for farmers and have a ripple effect on supply and demand dynamics.Volatility in arrivals and prices of vegetables like onion are serious issues affecting the common man in different ways. The study attempts to employ different time series models like ARIMA, ANN, Hybrid, and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition techniques for analyzing the pattern and trend of onion in Chandigarh and Delhi markets. From the results of the study, the amount of volatility in the data was found to range from medium to high among the markets.Decomposition techniques such as EEMD-ARIMA and EEMD-ANN performed better for the study data with the least MAPE values such as 17.74%, 6.78% for arrivals, and 9.76%, 10.24% for prices at Chandigarh and Delhi markets respectively. The EEMD techniques excel in handling the non-linearity and non-stationarity by decomposing the data into different intrinsic modes and a residual, providing a better understanding of the fluctuation levels of data.