AUTHOR=Loring Philip A. , Loken Brent , Bhalla Iqbal S. , Daniel Adil , De La Torre Ana , Friedman Suzy , Melo-Rijk Melody , del Rosario Liezl Stuart , Tardiou Ariane , van Dooren Corné , Upadhyay Gargi 

TITLE=Theories of change: navigating diverse expert perceptions and preferences for global food system transformation

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

VOLUME=Volume 8 - 2024

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1479865

DOI=10.3389/fsufs.2024.1479865

ISSN=2571-581X

ABSTRACT=We surveyed food systems experts in eight countries about their preferences for 20 different food system transformation strategies and their sentiment regarding whether current initiatives are sufficient to meet 2030 goals for climate and biodiversity. Results show that expert sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, and experts are concerned about multiple “transformation gaps,” including gaps in ambition, strategy, and implementation. Expert rankings for 20 strategies vary notably among countries and in ways that do not match those same experts’ rankings for the strength of the science behind each lever. These data suggest that experts draw from a mix of contextual and subjective preferences. Four distinct theories of change are evident: transformation via technical optimization, via smallholder support, via nature-positive solutions, and via supply chain enabling conditions. These findings provide insights for navigating the complexities of food system transformation and illustrate the influence on our strategies of preconceptions and biases in how we have come to understand the nature of the challenge.