AUTHOR=Wei Kunxiang , Lou Chunjing , Sun Zhaoxue , Guan Xin 

TITLE=Research on optimizing the planting structure of food crops from the perspective of water-energy resources constraints—evidence from Henan province toward the “15th Five-Year Plan” period

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2025.1575631

DOI=10.3389/fsufs.2025.1575631

ISSN=2571-581X

ABSTRACT=Conducting research on food security with multi-dimensional resource orientation. is of great significance. It ensures a stable food supply, alleviates hunger and promotes social and economic stability worldwide. This study constructed a functional zoning of food production security from the perspective of “water-energy” constraints. It was based on the production, water consumption, carbon emission and resource endowment data of four staple foods in 17 cities of Henan Province in 2020. Five methods, such as location entropy, resource endowment coefficient and carbon emission equation, etc., were used. Based on the seventh national population census data and scenario simulations for the “15th Five-Year Plan” period (2026–2030), the queuing element method and the grey GM (1, 1) prediction model were adopted to estimate the population changes and food demand in Henan Province during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. According to the zoning and demand estimation results, an optimization plan for the planting structure of food crops toward the “15th Five-Year Plan” period was proposed. The results are as follows: ① the food production advantage areas are distributed around the two core areas of “Anyang-Xinxiang” and “Zhumadian”; ② the total population of Henan Province shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, but the per capita food demand and total food demand continue to grow; ③ the optimized planting structure of food crops, except for rice, has obvious differences in yield increase in other major food crops; ④ after optimizing the planting structure, water and energy resources consumption is significantly reduced, with a 17.90% reduction in carbon emissions and a 23.32% reduction in water consumption. In this study, a more reasonable yield increase scheme was formed by optimizing the food planting structure. It can effectively reduce the potential hidden dangers of food security caused by the tightening of “water-energy” resources during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period.