Emergence pathways of organic livestock systems in arid environments: a longitudinal systems analysis of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Introduction:

Organic livestock systems are well documented in temperate regions, yet their emergence in arid agro-ecosystems remains poorly understood. Environmental constraints such as water scarcity, heat stress, and limited forage availability may influence species adoption pathways and production dynamics, but longitudinal empirical evidence from dryland regions is limited.

Methods:

This study uses official organic certification records from Saudi Arabia covering the period 2019-2023. The dataset includes all certified and in-conversion livestock projects and associated production outputs acrosscattle, sheep and goats, camels, poultry, beehives, and organic fodder systems. A descriptive system-based analytical approach was applied, combing trend analysis, structural indices, exploratory assessment of associations among variables.

Results:

Organic livestock development showed differentiated species trajectories. Poultry and apiculture expanded rapidly and accounted for most numerical growth, whereas ruminant systems showed more gradual and variable changes. Increases in fodder area coincided with subsequent livestock expansion, while growth in animal numbers was not consistently accompanied by increases in productivity. Development was spatially concentrated in a limited number of regions, and trend-based projections indicates continued expansion of the beekeeping sector under current conditions.

Discussion:

The findings suggest that organic livestock systmes in arid environments follow a pathway distinct from temperate systems. Emergence appears to be associated with species differentiation, resource constraints, and spatial clustering, with expansion linked to fodder availbility and institutional context. These results provide empirical insights for designing context-adapted organic livestock strategies in arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems.

1 Introduction

Organic agriculture is widely defined as a holistic production system that sustains the health of soils, ecosystems, animals, and people by relying on ecological processes, biodiversity, and locally adapted cycles rather than synthetic inputs (IFOAM, 2014; FAO, 2018). International guidance from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Codex Alimentarius, and IFOAM emphasizes system-based management, preventive animal health strategies, and ecological integration as central pillars of organic livestock production. Globally, organic livestock systems are well documented in temperate regions, particularly in Europe and North America, where moderate climates and pasture-based production systems support ruminant-dominated organic sectors (Lampkin and Padel, 2019; Willer et al., 2023). In these contexts, organic livestock development has largely evolved through the transformation of existing grazing-based systems.

In contrast, far less is known about how organic livestock systems emerge and evolve in arid and semi-arid environments. Dryland agro-ecosystems are characterized by water scarcity, high evapotranspiration, heat stress, and limited natural forage resources, which impose structural constraints on livestock production (FAO, 2019; Rockström et al., 2010). These constraints have been widely documented in global livestock systems, where production efficiency, species selection, and system resilience are strongly influenced by climatic variability and resource availability (Herrero et al., 2013; Lipper et al., 2014; Thornton and Herrero, 2015). These environmental conditions are likely to influence not only productivity but also the pathway through which organic livestock sectors develop. In water-limited systems, species requiring lower fodder inputs, shorter production cycles, and reduced capital risk may be favored during early adoption phases. However, despite the relevance of this question to large parts of the Middle East, North Africa, and other dry regions globally, longitudinal system-level analyses of organic livestock transitions under arid conditions remain scarce.

Saudi Arabia provides a distinctive case for examining this gap. The country is predominantly arid, with livestock production heavily dependent on irrigated fodder systems and imported feed resources. Over the past two decades, Saudi Arabia has undergone structured, policy-driven developments of its organic farming sector. Initial organic initiatives, largely private and farm-driven before 2005, were followed by coordinated national efforts in collaboration with German International Cooperation (GIZ). These efforts established institutional and regulatory foundations for sector development, including designation of a competent authority within the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (MEWA), development of national organic standards in 2009, and their formal approval as binding regulations in 2013. Complementary institutional development included the establishment of the Organic Farming Research Center in Qassim (2010), the formation of the Saudi Organic Farming Association (SOFA) in 2007, and the launch of a national organic logo in 2011 to enhance market recognition. These initiatives were further consolidated through the approval of a national organic farming policy in 2015 and its structured implementation beginning in 2018.

This institutional maturation is provides an important context for interpreting livestock trends, as it established the governance, certification, research, and market infrastructure necessary for organic livestock production to expand beyond pilot initiatives. The availability of five consecutive years (2019–2023) of national organic livestock records from the Organic Farming Department offers a rare empirical opportunity to examine how these institutional foundations are associated with measurable patterns of livestock transition under arid climatic conditions. The dataset includes certified and in-conversion livestock numbers (cattle, sheep and goats, camels, poultry, and beehives), commodity production outputs (milk, eggs and honey), organic fodder areas, and regional distribution across the Kingdom.

This study study aims to examine how organic livestock systems emerge under arid conditions using longitudinal certification data. Specifically, the study seeks to: (i) characterize species-specific adoption trajectories, (ii) assess spatial concentration and regional specialization patterns, (iii) evaluate production dynamics relative to livestock numbers, and (iv) examine temporal relationships between fodder development and livestock expansion. Based on current understanding of dryland agro-ecosystems, the study explores the following hypotheses: (i) organic livestock emergence in arid environments is species-differentiated rather than uniform, (ii) livestock expansion is temporally associated with prior development of fodder resources, and (iii) organic livestock systems exhibit spatial concentration rather than uniform regional diffusion. Through the transforming routine certification data into a longitudinal systems analysis, this study seeks to characterize patterns of organic livestock emergence in arid environments. In doing so, it contributes empirical evidence to a relativelyunderexplored dimension of organic agriculture and provides insights relevant for strengthening organic livestock development strategies in dryland agro-ecosystems worldwide.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 Data source and study context

This study employed a longitudinal systems-based analytical design to examine how organic livestock systems emerge and evolve within an arid agro-ecosystem. The analysis was based on official records compiled by the Organic Farming Department under the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (MEWA), Saudi Arabia. The dataset covers the period 2019–2023 and includes all livestock projects registered as certified organic or under conversion to organic across the Kingdom. These records are generated through standardized certification, inspection, and monitoring procedures conducted by accredited certification bodies operating under MEWA supervision, ensuring consistency across regions and years. The 5-year observation window represents the most recent phase of sector consolidation following the institutional maturation of Saudi Arabia's organic regulatory framework, including the formal implementation of official organic standards and structured policy rollout that began in 2018. The dataset therefore captures livestock development within a relatively stable governance environment. The records include annual observations for cattle, sheep and goats, camels, poultry (birds), and beehives. For each category, animals were classified as fully certified organic or under conversion. Production data include milk and dairy products (tons), table egg production (number of eggs), and honey output (kilograms). Fodder production data include organic and in-conversion fodder areas (hectares) and total fodder output (tons). Regional identifiers enable spatial disaggregation across all administrative regions of Saudi Arabia.

2.2 Data organization and analytical framework

For analytical consistency, the data were reorganized into a structured longitudinal panel incorporating year, region, species, certification status, animal numbers, production quantities, and associated fodder metrics. The analytical framework was designed to provide a system characterization rather than to develop predictive econometric models. Accordingly, the approach is primarily descriptive and exploratory.

Descriptive statistics, including mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV), were calculated to assess variability and structural stability across species and production variables. The coefficient of variation provides a scale-independent measure of dispersion, facilitating comparison across heterogeneous units (Gujarati and Porter, 2009). Annual growth rates were computed to evaluate short-term expansion dynamics, and compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were calculated to summarize multi-year trends (Damodaran, 2012).

To evaluate structural changes over time, two analytical phases were defined: a pre-expansion period (2019–2021) and a post-expansion period (2022–2023). Post-expansion values were standardized relative to pre-expansion baselines using index transformation, enabling comparison a variables with different units.

2.3 Regional concentration and specialization analysis

Regional concentration of certified beehives was assessed using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), calculated as the sum of squared regional regional shares. In this context, the HHI is used as an indicator of spatial concentration rather than market competition, allowing assessment of how organic livestock activities are distributed across regions. While commonly applied in economic analysis (Hirschman, 1964), its interpretation here is adapted to reflect geographic clustering of production rather than strategic interactions among independent actors. To assess spatial specialization patterns, a Regional Specialization Index (RSI) was calculated by comparing each region's sectoral share with the corresponding overall average. This approach is conceptually aligned with the location quotient methodology commonly applied in regional economic analysis (Isserman, 1977) and enables identification of regions with relatively higher concentrations of specific livestock sectors.

2.4 Productivity, resource linkages, and analytical considerations

Given the structural constraints of arid environments, particular emphasis was placed on examining the relationship between fodder resources and livestock expansion. Fodder productivity (tons per hectare) and livestock numbers were analyzed longitudinally to explore whether the changes in fodder availability coincided with subsequent changes in livestock populations. Production outputs were also examined relative to animal numbers (e.g., honey per hive, egg output relative to poultry population) to assess patterns of system efficiency and potential divergence between scale expansion and per-unit productivity. Associations among livestock numbers, production outputs, and fodder metrics were explored using correlation coefficients. Given the limited number of observations (n = 5), these correlations are interpreted as descriptive indicators of association rather than statistically robust measures of inference, and no causal relationships are implied.

To explore potential short-term system trajectories, simple trend-based projections of beehive populations were examined using linear and exponential models. These projections are presented as illustrative patterns rather than predictive forecasts, given the short time series and associated limitations. All analyses and visualizations were conducted using Python (version 3.x) with standard scientific computing libraries. Figures were generated at high resolution (600 dpi) to ensure publication-quality graphical presentation.

2.5 Methodological considerations and limitations

This study is based on a short longitudinal dataset comprising five annual observations (2019-2023). As such, the analysis is designed as an exploratory systems-level assessment rather than an inferential statistical study. The limited sample size restricts the ability to conduct robust statistical inference or to establish causal relationships among variables. Observed associations should therefore be interpreted as indicative patterns rather than definitive relationships. In addition, the dataset is derived from administrative certification records, which may be influenced by reporting practices, certification uptake, and institutional processes. The data do not include farm-level management variables, economic indicators, or direct measures of climatic variability. External factors such as policy changes, market conditions, and environmental variability may therefore contribute to the observed patterns. These limitations are considered in the interpretation of results.

3 Results

3.1 Species-specific adoption and expansion dynamics (2019–2023)

Organic livestock development in Saudi Arabia between 2019 and 2023 showed marked variation across species categories (Table 1). Changes in livestock numbers were not uniform but followed distinct trajectories depending on species type and certification status. Poultry exhibited the most rapid numerical expansion. Certified organic birds increased from 1,504 in 2019 to 11,360 in 2020 and 12,000 in 2021, reaching 12,500 in 2022, before declining to 10,000 in 2023. Beekeeping also expanded over the study period. Certified beehives increased from 5,600 in 2019 to 8,450 in 2023, while in-conversion beehives rose from 194 to 2,550 during the same period, with the largest increases occurring after 2021. Cattle numbers increased from 101 head in 2019 to 610 in 2022, then declined to 400 in 2023. Sheep and goats increased more gradually from 3,132 in 2019 to 3,710 in 2023, and displayed relatively low interannual variability (CV = 10.4%). Camel numbers fluctuated modestly during 2019–2022 and were recorded as zero in 2023.

Annual growth rates (Table 2) further illustrate these trajectories. Poultry recorded a + 655% increase in 2020, followed by smaller increases and a contraction in 2023. Cattle increased by + 458.4% in 2020 before entering moderate growth and subsequent decline. Beehives under conversion increased by + 242.9% in 2022. Sheep and goats exhibited comparatively moderate annual growth throughout the study period. These changes in livestock numbers were accompanied by corresponding chnages in production outputs.

3.2 Production output and productivity patterns

Commodity-level production data are presented in Table 3. Honey production increased from 22,000 kg in 2019 to 27,400 kg in 2023, with intermediate values of 22,700 kg (2020), 25,000 kg (2021), and 27,000 kg (2022). Table egg production increased from 4,000 eggs in 2019 to 454,000 in 2020 and peaked at 480,000 in 2021 before declining to 450,000 in 2022 and 300,000 in 2023. Cattle milk production ranged from 343 tons in 2019 to 400 tons in 2022, followed by a decline to 300 tons in 2023. Sheep milk production was recorded only in 2019 (91 tons). The absence of sheep milk production in subsequent years is noted in the dataset, while sheep population numbers remained relatively stable.

Fodder production metrics (Table 4) show that total fodder area increased from 580 ha in 2019 to 361 ha in 2020 and 391 ha in 2021, then expanded to 695 ha in 2022 before stabilizing at 691 ha in 2023. Total fodder production increased from 3,220 tons in 2019 to 10,600 tons in both 2020 and 2021, followed by 8,100 tons in 2022 and 2023. Yield peaked at 29.36 tons/ha in 2020 and declined to 11.72 tons/ha in 2023. The marked increase in fodder yield between 2019 and 2020 is evident in the dataset and represents a substantial year-to-year variation. The normalized efficiency index decreased from 1.00 in 2020 to 0.40 in both 2022 and 2023.

3.3 Structural transition between pre- and post-expansion phases

Comparison of the pre-expansion period (2019-2021) and the post-expansion period (2022-2023) is presented in Figure 1. Total beehives increased by approximately 72% between periods, while honey productivity per hive declined by approximately 32%. Total birds increased by approximately 36% between periods. Honey production increased by approximately 17%, whereas fodder production remained relatively stable. Certification rates increased from 85.0 ± 8.5% to 89.0 ± 1.0% in the post-expansion period.

Figure 1

3.4 Regional concentration and specialization

Regional distribution of certified beehives in 2023 is shown in Figure 2. Qassim accounted for 64.09% of total certified beehives (7,050 of 11,000), followed by Al-Baha (19.09%) and Riyadh (5.00%). The calculated Herfindahl–Hirschman Index exceeded 4,000, indicating a high degree of spatial concentration. The cumulative distribution curve demonstrates that a limited number of regions accounted for the majority of certified beehives. Regional specialization patterns are presented in Figure 3. Qassim recorded the highest specialization in beekeeping (RSI = 223), Al-Baha also showed high specialization in apiculture (RSI = 191), Riyadh exhibited specialization in poultry (RSI = 196), and Madinah showed specialization in cattle (RSI = 172). Other regions displayed lower specialization scores across sectors.

Figure 2

Figure 3

3.5 Interlinkages among livestock, production, and fodder variables

Correlation coefficients among key variables are shown in Figure 4. Beehive numbers were strongly positively correlated with honey production (r = 0.97). Poultry numbers were positively associated with egg production (r = 0.89). Cattle numbers were positively associated with fodder area (r = 0.80). Sheep numbers showed a negative association with fodder production (r = −0.72). Fodder production showed a moderate positive association with poultry numbers (r = 0.58). Temporal comparison shows that increases in fodder area during 2020–2021 coincided with subsequent increases in livestock numbers, particularly in poultry and beehives.

Figure 4

The observed expansion and stabilization patterns were then extended into short-term projections.

3.6 Trend-based projections of the beehive population

Trend-based projections for beehive populations through 2026 are presented in Figure 5. Linear projections estimate 12,620 hives by 2026, while exponential projections estimate approximately 14,100 hives. These projections illustrate continued expansion of the beekeeping sector under current trends.

Figure 5

Across the study period, organic livestock development was characterized by species-specific expansion, changes in production and productivity metrics, spatial concentration in selected regions, measurable inter-variable associations, and continued projected growth in beekeeping.

4 Discussion

This study provides rare longitudinal evidence of how organic livestock systems emerge in an arid agro-ecosystem. Organic agriculture is widely defined as a system-based approach emphasizing ecological processes, biodiversity, and preventive animal health management rather than reliance on synthetic inputs (FAO, 2018; IFOAM, 2014). While organic livestock expansion in temperate regions is typically grounded in pasture-based ruminant systems supported by favorable climatic and forage conditions (Willer et al., 2023), the Saudi case reveals a distinct emergence pathway shaped by water scarcity, dependency on irrigated fodder, and climatic stress.

The results demonstrate that organic livestock development in arid environments does not follow uniform species trajectories. Instead, initial expansion was dominated by poultry and apiculture, species characterized by lower per-unit fodder requirements, shorter production cycles, and faster economic returns. These patterns are consistent with observations from dryland livestock systems in other regions (Kugedera and Naik, 2026), where production systems are shaped by resource constraints, adaptive strategies, and institutional support structures (Reid et al., 2014; Communication Team ICARDA, 2012; ICARDA, 2021). This pattern differs from temperate organic systems in Europe and North America, where ruminants frequently dominate organic livestock portfolios due to established grazing systems and pasture availability (Lampkin and Padel, 2019). In arid systems, structural constraints may favor species that reduce forage dependence on forage resources and lower initial financial risk during early transition phases.

The rapid expansion of poultry and beehives suggests that these species function as entry points for organic adoption. Their scaling potential allows producers to enter certified systems without immediately confronting the full constraints associated with fodder production in dryland environments. Similar adaptive transitions toward lower-input and shorter-cycle production systems have been reported in water-constrained agro-ecosystems (Rockström et al., 2010). This pattern may reflect a broader tendency for systems entry to be shaped by economic turnover and resource constraints.

Organic livestock dynamics observed in this study show similarities with dryland livestock systems in other regions, including North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia. In North African and Sahelian systems, livestock production is shaped by water scarcity, variable forage availability, and reliance on supplemental feed, conditions that often favor species with lower resource requirements and greater adaptive flexibility (Herrero et al., 2010; FAO, 2019; Thornton and Herrero, 2015). Similarly, studies from Sub-Saharan Africa have documented transitions toward smaller livestock and diversified production strategies under climatic and economic constraints (Thornton, 2010). In Australia, livestock systems in arid and semi-arid regions also exhibit strong dependence on feed availability, spatial clustering of production, and sensitivity to climatic variability, with management strategies adapted to fluctuating resource conditions (McKeon et al., 2009). These patterns are consistent with the species differentiation and resource dependence observed in this study and suggest that organic livestock development in dryland environments may follow broadly similar adaptive pathways across regions.

A central structural pattern observed in this study is the temporal alignment between expansion in organic fodder area and subsequent increase in livestock numbers. This suggests a possible “fodder-first, livestock-later” sequence in which increases in changes in fodder availability coincide with later livestock expansion. In arid agro-ecosystems, forage availability is constrained by climatic variability and irrigation capacity (FAO, 2019; Peden et al., 2013; Steinfeld et al., 2006), and fodder development may therefore represent an enabling condition for livestock growth. The pronounced increase in fodder yield between 2019 and 2020 should be interpreted with caution, as it may reflect early-stage conversion effects, changes in crop composition, or differences in reporting during the initial phase of organic system establishment. Given the aggregated nature of the dataset, these factors cannot be disentangled and therefore represent a limitation in interpreting productivity trends. However, this relationship should be interpreted cautiously, as the available data does not allow causal inference. The observed divergence between livestock expansion and per-unit productivity, particularly the decline in honey yield per hive during periods of rapid expansion, suggests that increases in scale may not be accompanied by immediate gains in efficiency. Such patterns are consistent with transition phases in agricultural systems, where expansion may precedes optimization of management practices (Darnhofer et al., 2010; Pretty et al., 2018). The stabilization of fodder production in later years may indicate the presence of resource linits that constrain further expansion under arid environments.

Spatial patterns indicate that organic livestock development is concentrated in a limited number of regions, particularly Qassim and Riyadh, rather than being evenly distributed across regions. This pattern suggests that system emergence may be influenced not only by resource availability but also by institutional factors. The presence of research centers, certification systems, extension services, and organized producer networks may contribute to localized adoption. Similar clustering patterns have been observed in agricultural innovation systems, where institutional density faciliates knowledge transfer and reduces transition risk (Hall et al., 2005; Klerkx et al., 2012). It should be noted that, in this context, the HHI reflects spatial concentration rather than competitive dynamics among independent actors, and may therefore capture underlying differences in resource availability, infrastructure, or institutional support across regions.

The absence of camels from organic certification by 2023 should be interpreted with caution. Given the relatively small number of animals involved, this pattern may reflect farm-level decisions, certification dynamics, or reporting factors rather than broader structural factors. While camels are well adapted to arid environments (Faye, 2013), the available data does not allow definitive conclusions regarding their role within the organic system.

The volatility observed in sheep and goat populations during transition years may reflect sensitivity to fluctuations in fodder availability, input costs, or management conditions. In dryland systems, such variability is commonly associated with resource constraints and market dynamics (Herrero et al., 2010). Without targeted support during conversion phases, these systems may experience instability before reaching more stable production patterns. The discontinuation of sheep milk production after 2019 may similarly reflect farm-level decisions, reporting practices, or product reclassification rather than a structural decline in sheep numbers. It is important to note that the observed patterns may also be influenced by external factors not explicitly captured in the dataset. The study period (2019–2023) coincided with global and regional disruptions, including COVID-19-related supply chain effects, changes in input costs, and evolving consumer demand for organic products. Policy developments and climatic variability may also have contributed to observed trends. These factors should be considered when interpreting the results.

Taken together, the findings, suggest that organic livestock systems in arid enivironments may follow a distinct emergence pathway. Development appears to begin with expansion of low-input, faster-turnover species such as poultry and apiculture, followed by gradual integration of more resource-intensive livestock systems. Growth is spatially concentrated in regions with stronger institutional capacity, and expansion may be associated with prior development of fodder resources. These patterns differ from temperate organic systems, where pasture-based ruminant production often forms the foundation of sector development.

The findings have broader relevance for other arid and semi-arid regions, including parts of the Middle East, North Africa, and comparable dryland agro-ecosystems. Organic livestock development strategies in such environments may benefit from recognizing the role of species differentiation, resource constraints, and institutional support structures. Development of organic fodder systems may be an important component of livestock expansion, while regionally focused institutional support may facilitate adoption. Adaptation of rganic standards to better accommodate diverse production systems, including pastoral systems, including pastoral systems, may also be considered.

5 Limitations and future directions

This analysis is based on five consecutive years of official certification data. While such longitudinal datasets are limited in dryland regions, longer time series would allow more robust assessment of system dynamics and stabilization processes. In addition, farm-level variables such as water-use efficiency, production costs, and management practices were not included in the of dataset. Future research integrating farm-level ecological and economic data would provide a more detailed understanding of sustainability trade-offs and resilience in arid organic livestock systems.

6 Conclusion

Organic livestock systems in Saudi Arabia appear to follow a trajectory that differs from temperate organic models. Development is characterized by species differentiation, dependence on fodder resource availability, and spatially concentration in regions with institutional support. These findings suggest that organic livestock transitions in arid environments may require context-specific strategies that account for ecological constraints, resource availability, and system structure.

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