AUTHOR=Lyons Nicholas A. , Afzal Muhammed , Toirov Farrukh , Irshad Aamer , Bartels Chris J. M. , Rushton Jonathan 

TITLE=Economic Considerations for Advancement Through the Progressive Control Pathway: Cost–Benefit Analysis of an FMD Disease-Free Zone in Punjab Province, Pakistan

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Veterinary Science

VOLUME=Volume 8 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/veterinary-science/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.703473

DOI=10.3389/fvets.2021.703473

ISSN=2297-1769

ABSTRACT=Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a priority disease of livestock in Pakistan, which was classified in stage 2 of the Progressive Control Pathway (PCP-FMD) in 2015 aiming to reduce disease impact. Further progression requires efforts to reduce viral circulation which may ultimately result in being awarded official disease-free status by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Typically, FMD control is reliant on the extensive use of vaccines, requiring careful consideration of the costs and benefits to ensure investment is likely to provide a positive return. 
This study conducted a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for a proposed zone within Punjab Province, Pakistan. Benefits were assumed to come from averted production losses and treatment costs, and the costs based on typical measures required for establishing a disease-free zone. To estimate the impact of FMD at the farm-level, models were created to estimate effects on milk production, offtakes and changes in herd value over a five-year period with different parameters used to represent the production systems present. Control strategy costs incorporated aspects of vaccination, surveillance, sanitary measures, programme management, stakeholder engagement, preparatory studies, training and capacity building. 
The results indicated a median benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.03 (90% central range 0.37, 1.63) with a median net present value (NPV) of 1.99 billion Pakistan Rupees (90% central range -37.7, 37.0). The greatest cost was due to vaccination at 56% followed by sanitary measures (including implementing and maintaining an animal ID system and quarantine stations around the zone) at 41%. Although the median BCR and NPV indicated that investment is likely to generate a positive return, the large variation indicates caution in interpreting the results and it is possible that an increase in animal value through new export markets will be required. Further refinement in our knowledge of disease impact and the details of the control strategy is needed. Moreover, there are implications regarding vaccine security, since the strategy is reliant on the steady provision of quality vaccines in order to achieve the anticipated benefits raising important issues on vaccine availability for countries to maintain lucrative export markets for FMD.