AUTHOR=Kim Kiyeon , Ito Kimihito 

TITLE=Targeted sampling reduces the uncertainty in force of infection estimates from serological surveillance

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Veterinary Science

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/veterinary-science/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.754255

DOI=10.3389/fvets.2022.754255

ISSN=2297-1769

ABSTRACT=Age bins are commonly used in serological studies of infectious diseases in wildlife to deal with uncertainty on ages of sampled animals. In this study, we analyze how age binning and targeted sampling in serological surveillance affect the width of 95% confidence interval (CI) of estimated force of infection (FOI) of infectious diseases. Using computer simulations and mathematical models, we show that the optimal target population that has the narrowest 95% CI differs depending on the expected FOI. Our results show that by tailoring targeted, age-based sampling to specific epidemiological situations we can substantially reduce the number of animals required to make inference on transmission risk.