Geopolitical Conflicts, Policy Shocks and Global Food Security: Market Transmission, Vulnerability and Resilience in Sustainable Food Systems

Geopolitical conflicts and related policy shocks have become major sources of instability for food systems. Armed conflicts, regional military tensions, sanctions, trade restrictions, maritime disruptions, border closures, export controls, and uncertainty surrounding escalation can affect food security far beyond the territories directly involved. Such shocks may disrupt agricultural production, input availability, infrastructure, energy markets, trade flows, financial conditions, and expectations in agricultural commodity markets, influencing food prices, food inflation, import costs, exchange-rate pressures, nutrition security, and household resilience.

The Russia–Ukraine war is one of the most visible recent examples of these mechanisms, given their importance in global markets for cereals, oilseeds, fertilizers, and energy-related inputs. However, similar channels may operate in other geopolitical contexts, including tensions in the Gulf region, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea, as well as maritime corridors, regional supply chains, energy markets, and import-dependent countries. They should therefore be understood not only as direct disruptions to food production but also as systemic shocks transmitted through commodity markets, trade networks, logistics, financial markets, macroeconomic conditions, and policy responses.

Geopolitical shocks can alter land use, agricultural decisions, access to inputs, farm incomes, labor availability, food affordability, and the capacity of governments and communities to respond to crisis conditions. They may also generate persistent uncertainty, influencing investment decisions, trade expectations, storage behavior, risk management, and public policy choices. The topic requires an interdisciplinary perspective connecting agricultural economics, food security, land systems, rural livelihoods, international trade, political economy, sustainability research, and macro-financial analysis.

Existing research has often focused on immediate humanitarian consequences, short-term export disruptions, or rapid food price increases. These studies are important, but gaps remain in understanding the longer-term mechanisms through which geopolitical conflicts and policy shocks affect food systems. There is still limited integrated evidence on how such shocks reshape production, land use, input markets, labor, rural livelihoods, food affordability, nutritional security, and policy responses. A further gap concerns market-based transmission through commodity, fertilizer, energy, and financial markets, as well as price volatility, spillovers, exchange-rate pressures, food inflation, import bills, and external vulnerability. Another gap concerns the uneven distribution of impacts. Geopolitical shocks do not affect all countries, regions, producers, or consumers equally. Low-income households, smallholder farmers, displaced communities, food-import-dependent countries, and economies exposed to poverty, climate stress, debt pressure, or political instability may face severe consequences. Producers, traders, governments, and international organizations may also adopt coping strategies, including changes in sourcing, production, storage, trade policy, food assistance, strategic reserves, and risk management instruments.

This Research Topic aims to fill these gaps by bringing together interdisciplinary and comparative contributions on how geopolitical conflicts and related policy shocks affect food security and sustainable food systems. It seeks to move beyond a single conflict or short-term market reaction and develop a broader understanding of how shocks are transmitted from production to consumption, from local livelihoods to global markets, and from immediate disruption to long-term resilience. The Russia–Ukraine war remains an important empirical case, but submissions are encouraged to situate it within wider debates on geopolitical risk, uncertainty, vulnerability, and preparedness. The collection also aims to identify policy lessons for strengthening resilience, reducing dependence on vulnerable trade routes or input sources, improving preparedness, supporting vulnerable populations, and designing equitable and sustainable responses.

This Research Topic welcomes interdisciplinary, empirical, theoretical, comparative, and policy-oriented contributions, including Original Research, Reviews, Systematic Reviews, Policy and Practice Reviews, Case Studies, and Perspectives. Submissions may address, but are not limited to, the following themes:

• impacts of geopolitical conflicts and policy-related shocks on agricultural production, trade flows, logistics, and supply chains;

• effects of armed conflicts, sanctions, export restrictions, maritime disruptions, border closures, and trade measures on food security;

• the Russia–Ukraine war as an empirical case of food system vulnerability, market transmission, uncertainty, and resilience, especially where broader lessons are drawn;
• comparative analyses of food security impacts across conflicts, regions, trade corridors, and import-dependent economies;

• transmission of geopolitical shocks through agricultural commodities, fertilizer, energy, financial, and exchange-rate channels;

• food price volatility, food inflation, affordability, dietary change, and nutrition security under geopolitical uncertainty;

• macroeconomic consequences, including import bills, fiscal pressures, inflation, and balance-of-payments constraints;

• effects on land use, land access, agricultural decisions, investment, production strategies, livelihoods, and household resilience;

• fertilizer, fuel, feed, seed, and other input disruptions and their implications for sustainable agricultural production;

• uncertainty channels, expectations, risk perception, and behavioral responses of farmers, traders, consumers, investors, and policymakers;

• differential impacts on vulnerable populations, displaced people, urban consumers, and countries dependent on food, fuel, or fertilizer imports;

• adaptation and coping strategies adopted by farmers, communities, governments, firms, humanitarian organizations, and food system actors;

• policy responses, including trade measures, food assistance, strategic reserves, subsidies, price stabilization, diversification, and resilience planning;

• implications for food system transformation, sustainability transitions, risk governance, preparedness, and global food security governance.

Article types and fees

This Research Topic accepts the following article types, unless otherwise specified in the Research Topic description:

• Community Case Study
• Conceptual Analysis
• Data Report
• Editorial
• FAIR² Data
• General Commentary
• Hypothesis and Theory
• Methods
• Mini Review
• ... View all formats

Articles that are accepted for publication by our external editors following rigorous peer review incur a publishing fee charged to Authors, institutions, or funders.

Article types

This Research Topic accepts the following article types, unless otherwise specified in the Research Topic description:

• Community Case Study
• Conceptual Analysis
• Data Report
• Editorial
• FAIR² Data
• General Commentary
• Hypothesis and Theory
• Methods
• Mini Review
• Opinion
• Original Research
• Perspective
• Policy and Practice Reviews
• Policy Brief
• Review
• Systematic Review
• Technology and Code

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, food security, agricultural commodity markets, price volatility, food system resilience, geopolitical shocks

Important note: All contributions to this Research Topic must be within the scope of the section and journal to which they are submitted, as defined in their mission statements. Frontiers reserves the right to guide an out-of-scope manuscript to a more suitable section or journal at any stage of peer review.