Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a severe condition with in-hospital mortality of up to 50%. Patients who develop CS may have previous cardiac history, but that may not always be the case, adding to the challenges in optimally identifying and managing these patients. Patients may present to a medical facility with CS or develop CS while in the emergency department (ED), in a general inpatient ward (WARD) or in the critical care unit (CC). While different clinical pathways for management exist once CS is recognized, there are challenges in identifying the patients in a timely manner, in all settings, in a timeframe that will allow proper management. We therefore developed and evaluated retrospectively a machine learning model based on the XGBoost (XGB) algorithm which runs automatically on patient data from the electronic health record (EHR). The algorithm was trained on 8 years of de-identified data (from 2010 to 2017) collected from a large regional healthcare system. The input variables include demographics, vital signs, laboratory values, some orders, and specific pre-existing diagnoses. The model was designed to make predictions 2 h prior to the need of first CS intervention (inotrope, vasopressor, or mechanical circulatory support). The algorithm achieves an overall area under curve (AUC) of 0.87 (0.81 in CC, 0.84 in ED, 0.97 in WARD), which is considered useful for clinical use. The algorithm can be refined based on specific elements defining patient subpopulations, for example presence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or congestive heart failure (CHF), further increasing its precision when a patient has these conditions. The top-contributing risk factors learned by the model are consistent with existing clinical findings. Our conclusion is that a useful machine learning model can be used to predict the development of CS. This manuscript describes the main steps of the development process and our results.
Aim: Early detection of impending fluid retention and timely adjustment of (medical) therapy can prevent heart failure related hospitalizations. The multisensory cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) based algorithm HeartLogicTM aims to alert in case of impending fluid retention. The aim of the current analysis is to evaluate the performance of the HeartLogicTM guided heart failure care path in a real-world heart failure population and to investigate whether the height of the index and the duration of the alert state are indicative of the degree of fluid retention.
Methods: Consecutive adult heart failure patients with a CIED and an activated HeartLogicTM algorithm were eligible for inclusion. Patients were followed up according to the hospital's heart failure care path. The device technician reviewed alerts for a technical CIED checkup. Afterwards, the heart failure nurse contacted the patient to identify impending fluid retention. An alert was either true positive or false positive. Without an alert a patient was true negative or false negative.
Results: Among 107 patients, [82 male, 70 (IQR 60–77) years, left ventricular ejection fraction 37 ± 11%] 130 HeartLogicTM alerts were available for analysis. Median follow up was 14 months [IQR 8–23]. The sensitivity to detect impending fluid retention was 79%, the specificity 88%. The positive predictive was value 71% and the negative predictive value 91%. The unexplained alert rate was 0.23 alerts/patient year and the false negative rate 0.17 alerts/patient year. True positive alerts [42 days (IQR 28–63)] lasted longer than false positive alerts [28 days (IQR 21–44)], p = 0.02. The maximal HeartLogicTM index was higher in true positive alerts [26 (IQR 21–34)] compared to false positive alerts [19 (IQR 17–24)], p < 0.01. Patients with higher HeartLogicTM indexes required more intense treatment (index height in outpatient setting 25 [IQR 20–32], day clinic treatment 28 [IQR 24–36] and hospitalized patients 45 [IQR 35–58], respectively), p < 0.01.
Conclusion: The CIED-based HeartLogicTM algorithm facilitates early detection of impending fluid retention and thereby enables clinical action to prevent this at early stage. The current analysis illustrates that higher and persistent alerts are indicative for true positive alerts and higher index values are indicative for more severe fluid retention.