Research Topic

Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions

About this Research Topic

Forecasting volcanic eruptions and their potential impacts are primary goals in Natural Hazards research. Active volcanoes are nowadays monitored by different ground and space-based instruments providing a wealth of seismic, geodetic, and chemical data for academic volcanologists and monitoring agencies. We ...

Forecasting volcanic eruptions and their potential impacts are primary goals in Natural Hazards research. Active volcanoes are nowadays monitored by different ground and space-based instruments providing a wealth of seismic, geodetic, and chemical data for academic volcanologists and monitoring agencies. We have better insights into volcanic systems thanks to steady improvements in research tools and data processing techniques. The integration of these data into physics-based models allows us for example to constrain magma migration at depth and to derive the pressure evolution inside volcanic conduits and reservoirs, which ultimately help monitor evolving volcanic hazard.

Yet, it remains challenging to answer the most crucial questions when the threat of an eruption looms over us: When will it occur? What will be its style? Will it switch during its course? How long will the eruption last? And most importantly: will we have enough time to alert and evacuate population? Addressing these questions is crucial to reduce the social and economic impact of volcanic eruptions, both at the local and global scales. For example, the 2014 eruption at Ontake (Japan) had only limited spatial impact but killed dozens of hikers; in contrast, the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) did not cause any human loss but paralyzed the European air space for weeks.

Several limitations arise when approaching these questions. For example, short-term eruption forecasts and models that relate changes in monitoring parameters to the probability, timing, and nature of future activity are particularly uncertain. More reliable and useful quantitative forecasting requires the development of optimized and integrated monitoring networks, standardized approaches and nomenclature, and a new range of statistical methods and models that better capture the complexity of volcanic processes and system dynamics.

We would like to gather topics including optimization of monitoring networks (from one sensor to multi-disciplinary efforts, for single volcanoes or volcanic regions), field studies or lab experiments, statistics, and models, with the final goal of improving process-based and pattern-based forecasting of volcanic events and of their evolution through time. We particularly encourage studies that challenge established paradigms and that may ultimately support decision making of local authorities.


Keywords: Eruption forecasting, Volcano monitoring, physical modelling, volcano hazards and risks, early warning systems


Important Note: All contributions to this Research Topic must be within the scope of the section and journal to which they are submitted, as defined in their mission statements. Frontiers reserves the right to guide an out-of-scope manuscript to a more suitable section or journal at any stage of peer review.

Recent Articles

Loading..

About Frontiers Research Topics

With their unique mixes of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author.

Topic Editors

Loading..

Submission Deadlines

15 December 2017 Abstract
01 February 2018 Manuscript

Participating Journals

Manuscripts can be submitted to this Research Topic via the following journals:

Loading..

Topic Editors

Loading..

Submission Deadlines

15 December 2017 Abstract
01 February 2018 Manuscript

Participating Journals

Manuscripts can be submitted to this Research Topic via the following journals:

Loading..
Loading..

total views article views article downloads topic views

}
 
Top countries
Top referring sites
Loading..

Comments

Loading..

Add a comment

Add comment
Back to top