ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Oncol. Rev.
Sec. Oncology Reviews: Original Research
Volume 19 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/or.2025.1616080
This article is part of the Research TopicAdvances in Esophageal Cancer: Treatment Updates and Future ChallengesView all 22 articles
Global Trends of Esophageal Cancer Among Individuals Over 60 Years: An Epidemiological Analysis from 1990 to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021
Provisionally accepted
- Sichuan Cancer Hospital, Chengdu, China
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Objective: Esophageal cancer (EC) ranks as the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally, with over 500,000 new cases annually. Understanding trends in individuals over 60 is critical for enhancing treatment and the success of early diagnosis and screening. Materials and methods: This study analyzed global, regional, and national trends in EC management among individuals aged 60 years and older, spanning from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. We employed the integrating differential equations to enhance the accuracy of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also used to forecast future trends up to 2050. Results: Our findings indicate significant shifts in the EC burden among those over 60, with a notable increase in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2021, despite a decline in age-standardized rates. The incidence rose by 185%, while the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased by 17.02%. Socioeconomic factors, indicated by the Social Demographic Index, revealed varying trends across different regions and income levels, highlighting the influence of economic status on EC outcomes. Conclusions: Analysis indicates varying trends across different regions. Behavioral risk factors, particularly smoking and alcohol use, significantly contribute to the burden of EC, especially among males. Projections suggest that despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging, highlighting the ongoing global challenge of EC.
Keywords: esophageal cancer, Global burden of disease, Management, Incidence, Mortality
Received: 22 Apr 2025; Accepted: 22 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lu, Li, Kangning, Liu, Han, Peng, Chen and Leng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Kexun Li, likexun@yeah.net
Lei Chen, chen102lei@163.com
Xuefeng Leng, doc.leng@uestc.edu.cn
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