Assessing disaster vulnerability in an informal settlement of Cape Town, South Africa, through the MOVE Framework

Olivia Kunguma^1*Lum Sonita Awah¹Ilona Petersen¹Wilfred Lunga^1,2

• ¹University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
• ²Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa

Informal settlements in South Africa remain highly exposed to disasters despite ongoing disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts. This study applies the Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework to assess disaster vulnerability in the Barney Molokwane (BM) Section of Khayelitsha, Cape Town, focusing on the interaction of exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. Khayelitsha is one of Cape Town's most flood and fire-prone communities. A mixed-method design combining surveys, transect walks, and field observations with randomly selected 125 residents to capture lived experiences of risk was applied. Findings reveal that vulnerability is driven by inadequate housing, overcrowding, unemployment, poor sanitation, and weak institutional engagement. Hazardous coping practices from illegal electricity connections and resistance to re-blocking are shaped less by noncompliance than by systemic governance failures, mistrust, and limited access to services. By situating these findings within literature from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the study distinguishes context-specific vulnerabilities (wetland encroachment, dismantling of berms) from more widespread challenges (poverty, infrastructure deficits). While the MOVE framework proved useful, it captured cultural factors and informal social safety nets less effectively that shape resilience. Policy implications include the need for participatory early warning systems, community-driven drainage improvements, and livelihood support. The study demonstrates the value of vulnerability assessment for informing flood risk management and adaptation planning in informal settlements globally, contributing to SDG 11.