ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Nephrol.
Sec. Clinical Research in Nephrology
Volume 5 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fneph.2025.1567109
Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become the ninth leading cause of death globally, with rising incidence and prevalence, particularly in aging populations and low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. The global burden of CKD continues to increase, posing growing challenges to health systems.We analyzed CKD incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and SDI at global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage change. Age-Period-Cohort, Data Envelopment Analysis, and ARIMA models were applied to assess patterns, evaluate efficiency, and forecast future trends.From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of CKD demonstrated a significant increase. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 233.6 (95% UI: 220 to 247.2) per 100,000 in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.65). While all regions showed an increase in ASIR, Andean Latin America experienced the most substantial rise (EAPC=2.27, 95% CI: 2.17 to 2.38). The age-standardized deaths rate (ASDR) also increased globally 4 (EAPC=0.82, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.89), with the most significant increase observed in High-income North America (EAPC=3.40, 95% CI: 3.2 to 3.6). ARIMA model forecasts suggest that by 2050, the ASIR, ASDR, and the ASR of DALYs will continue to rise.CKD presents an escalating global health challenge, especially in resource-limited settings. Integrated, region-specific prevention, control, and intervention strategies are urgently needed to address existing gaps and curb the future rise in CKD burden.
Keywords: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), Incidence, Prevalence, deaths, DALYs
Received: 26 Jan 2025; Accepted: 20 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liu, An, 王, Jing and Chen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yuting Chen, First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
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