Dynamics shift of Malaria Cases in Northwest Ethiopia a Ten-year retrospective cohort data analysis from 2012 to 2021

Aberham Abere Alemayehu^1,2*Solomon Ayalew^1,2Bealemlay Wondale^1,2Fentahun Tigabu^1,2Nigus Gizachew^1,2Takele Tesfaye^1,2Getnet Ayalew^1,3Banchamlak Tegegne⁴Mulat Yimer Melaku⁵Yibeltal Aschale⁶Adane Tilahun⁶Mebratu Tamir²Fentahun Megabiaw²Tegegne Eshetu²Adane Derso²

• ¹University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
• ²School of Biomedical and Laboratory Sciences, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
• ³Department of Medical Microbiology, School of Biomedical and Laboratory Sciences, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
• ⁴Amhara Public Health Institute (APHI), Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
• ⁵Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, School of Health Science, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
• ⁶Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia

Background: Despite the WHO's extensive efforts to eliminate malaria from Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, it remains the most serious public health issue, with seasonal variations and high mortality. This study aimed to assess the ten Ten-year trends in the incidence and/or prevalence of malaria in northwest Ethiopia.Methods: A retrospective study was carried out at Maraki Health Center, Northwest Ethiopia.Ten-year from January 2012 to December 2021 blood film results were extractedrecorded using a data extraction sheet with data sourced from the laboratory logbook. Ten-year trend of malaria incidence was observed in terms of yearly, monthly, and seasons with respect to age and sexgender.The species distribution of the causative agents was determined in the study area.Results: Over ten years, 15,978 blood films were requested for malaria diagnosis, and 57.5% were from males. About 68.0% of respondents were under the age group of 15-45 years old. The overallmean prevalence of malaria was 25.2% (n= 4019) (95% CI: 23.83-26.59). The highest peaks of total malaria cases were observed in 2012 and October, whereas the lowest peaks were observed in 2016 and April (mean annual case= 401.9). Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant malaria species over the ten years. The highest and lowest P. vivax counts were observed in 2012 and 2018, respectively.ThisThe study revealed significant fluctuationsa drop in annual transmission in 2016-2017, and gradual rise to date. Also changes in the predominant malaria over ten years. spp in 2012, 2014 and 2015 P. falciparum isare the dominant species. Uninterrupted efforts are still essential to decrease the burden of malaria to a level that has no more public health effects.