ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Geriatric Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1541259
Risk prediction model of Early Vascular Aging (EVA) based on nomogram in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM): A cross-sectional study in a Chinese population
Provisionally accepted
- International Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Abstract Background: Early Vascular Aging (EVA) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to explore the risk factors for EVA in patients with T2DM in China and develop nomograms for EVA in patients with T2DM. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 1543 patients with T2DM. The patients were divided into non-EVA and EVA groups based on ankle-brachial pulse wave velocity (PWV). Results: (1) The risk factors for EVA in male included longer diabetic duration (OR=1.09 95CI% 1.06–1.11), high blood pressure (OR=2.06, 95CI% 1.51–2.81), smoking (OR=1.96 95CI% 1.17–3.27), diabetic nephropathy (OR=1.60 95CI% 1.10– 2.32), and diabetic retinopathy (OR=2.93 95CI% 2.00–4.29). The risk factors for EVA in females included longer duration of diabetes (OR=1.04 95CI% 1.01–1.07), smoking(OR=2.02, 95CI% 1.13,3.59), high blood pressure (OR=1.91, 95CI% 1.22– 2.79), diabetic nephropathy (OR=1.61 95CI% 1.02–2.52), and diabetic retinopathy (OR=3.61 95CI% 2.24–5.74). (2) The results showed that the nomogram-based risk prediction model achieved an area under the curve of 0.73 for men and 0.74 for women. The overall predictive accuracy of the nomogram for EVA in men was 67.85%, and its specificity and sensitivity were 73.74% and 62.33%, respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of the nomogram for EVA in females was 69.29%, and its specificity and sensitivity were 66.55% and 71.93%, respectively. Conclusions: The nomogram-based risk prediction model for EVA in T2DM patients showed good discriminative ability and predictive accuracy. It provides clinicians with a reliable tool to estimate the risk of EVA in T2DM patients, allowing for early interventions and reduction of cardiovascular diseases in high-risk populations.
Keywords: type 2 diabetes mellitus, Early vascular aging, Nomograms, pulse wave velocity, receiver operating characteristic
Received: 17 Feb 2025; Accepted: 29 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhao, sun, xin and zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: xiaomei zhang, International Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, China
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