ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Pathogenesis and Therapy
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1592325
Development and validation of mortality risk prediction model for sepsis secondary to pneumonia at Intensive Care Unit Admission: a retrospective case-cohort study
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,, Zhengzhou, China
- 2Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
- 3Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: To establish a noninvasive mortality risk prediction model for sepsis secondary to pneumonia (SSP) and validate the model in the prediction of mortality risk in SSP patients at hospital admission.: A retrospective cohort of SSP patients were recruited from January 2017 to December 2020 at the Henan Provincial People's Hospital. Clinical data were collected at admission. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression were used to construct a prognosis prediction model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Another retrospective cohort with SSP was recruited from January 2021 to July 2022 at the same hospital to validate the model. Results: A total of 1337 patients were screened, including 941 patients in the derivation cohort and 396 patients in the validation cohort. The model included age, white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, arterial oxygen pressure / fraction inspired oxygen, D-dimer and vasoactive drug use. The area under ROC curve of derivation model was better than sequential organ failure assessment score and APACHE II score (0.777 vs. 0.600 vs. 0.625, P < 0.05).Besides, the proposed model had a significantly higher prediction performance than SOFA and APACHE II scores in the validation cohort (0.803 vs. 0.655 vs. 0.688, P < 0.05). The prediction model was publicly released as an online calculator.Conclusions: A prognosis model based on variables of SSP patients at hospital admission was developed.
Keywords: Sepsis, Pneumonia, SOFA score, APACHE II score, Mortality
Received: 18 Mar 2025; Accepted: 28 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Lei, Li and Gang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yang Zhi Gang, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,, Zhengzhou, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.