ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Hepatobiliary Diseases
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1599134
Temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of gallbladder and biliary diseases in mainland China: past trends and future prediction
Provisionally accepted
- 1Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
- 2Department of Science and Technology, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Liaoning Province, China
- 3Department of General Surgery, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Liaoning Province, China
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Background: China is the country with the most gallbladder and biliary diseases (GABDs) deaths.Methods: Data on gallbladder and biliary diseases deaths were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Population data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study and World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in this study.The net drift of GABDs incidence was 0.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 1.00%) for males and 1.29% (95% CI: 1.22%, 1.35%) for females, and for mortality was -1.57% (95% CI: -1.81%, -1.34%) for males and -3.32% (95% CI: -3.55%, -3.10%) for females. The risk of GABDs increased in the last 20 years in males but decreased in the last 5 years in females. For mortality, both period and cohort effects showed a favorable trend (the mortality risk decreased). It is expected that the incidence in males will continue to increase, and the mortality for both sexes will continue to decrease. The incidence of GABDs in females is expected to decrease in the future. An increasing proportion of elderly individuals are expected to develop GABDs and die. Conclusions: In the past three decades, the incidence of GABDs has increased in both sexes, and the mortality rate has decreased. Except for the decreased incidence in females, the past trends will continue in the next decades. A higher proportion of elderly individuals are projected to suffer GABDs and die, thus GABDs in elderly individuals should receive more attention.
Keywords: age period and cohort framework, Cholangitis, Cholecystitis, gallbladder and biliary diseases, Gallstones
Received: 24 Mar 2025; Accepted: 13 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhu, Liu, Zhang, Hao, Wang, Du and Bai. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Baofeng Du, Department of General Surgery, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Liaoning Province, China
Ruhai Bai, Department of Science and Technology, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Liaoning Province, China
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