SYSTEMATIC REVIEW article
Front. Med.
Sec. Pulmonary Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1637654
The disease burden of ILD at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2035: The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study
Provisionally accepted
- Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
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Background: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important component of the global disease burden and health challenges. This study aims to describe and analyze the global and regional disease burden of ILD, and predict future epidemiological trends. Methods: The data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors (GBD) were used to conduct a secondary analysis on the incidence rate, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of ILD in 21 regions and 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021, stratified by time, space, gender, age and social demographic index (SDI). The Joinpoint regression model is used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Using Bayesian Age Period cohort (BAPC) model to predict the global disease burden trend of ILD in 2035. Result: In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALY of ILD have all increased compared to before, while the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of ILD have also shown an upward trend. It is worth noting that the disease burden of males and the elderly is generally higher than that of females and other age groups. Meanwhile, cross-border inequality analysis shows that a disproportionate burden of ILD is concentrated in countries with higher SDI. Decomposition analysis shows that population growth and aging have become important influencing factors of ILD disease burden. The age period cohort effect indicates a roughly positive correlation between disease risk and age. Frontier analysis indicates that countries with higher SDI have greater potential for burden improvement. It is expected that the disease burden of ILD will increase by 2035. Conclusion: The disease burden of ILD remains an important health issue globally. Exploring disease differences among different regions, genders, and ages, analyzing the disease burden and future trends of ILD, is of great significance for developing targeted prevention strategies, optimizing healthcare accessibility, and improving diagnostic interventions.
Keywords: Interstitial Lung Disease, incidence rate Mortality rate, Disability life adjustment year, Joinpoint regression model, Bayesian Age Period Queue Model
Received: 29 May 2025; Accepted: 01 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, zhang, Guo and yan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: jun yan, Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
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