ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Family Medicine and Primary Care
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1643828
This article is part of the Research TopicEmerging Global Population Health Risks: From Epidemiological Perspectives Volume IIView all 6 articles
Influence of meteorological conditions on herpes zoster occurrence: a retrospective cohort study
Provisionally accepted
- 1Collegium Medicum, School of Medicine, Department of Family Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
- 2Department of Water Management and Climatology, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
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Introduction: Herpes zoster is caused by the reactivation of the varicella zoster virus, typically affecting older adults and immunocompromised individuals. Although various studies have examined potential triggers, the influence of meteorological conditions on herpes zoster reporting remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether meteorological and biometeorological factors, including the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the H index (air cooling power), have an effect on herpes zoster occurrence. Methodology: We performed a retrospective analysis of medical records for herpes zoster cases (ICD-10 code B02) from 2009–2023 at two medical facilities in northeastern Poland. Local meteorological data were obtained from regional stations. Statistical analyses accounted for patient age, seasonality, and thermal conditions (as measured by UTCI). Results and discussion: No seasonal pattern in herpes zoster reporting was observed, and there were no statistically significant correlations between basic meteorological variables (ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, etc.) and the number of cases. However, results showed that under strong heat stress conditions (UTCI class 8), the risk of herpes zoster was approximately 20–25% higher compared to thermally neutral days. Conclusions: Herpes zoster occurrence does not exhibit a seasonal pattern. Composite indices like the UTCI and the H index can be useful tools for predicting the risk of herpes zoster. The relative risk of herpes zoster is lower during cold stress conditions and higher during heat stress conditions.
Keywords: Herpes Zoster, climate, UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), temperature, weather, Epidemiology
Received: 09 Jun 2025; Accepted: 25 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Ochal, Glinska-Lewczuk, Draganska, Cymes and Romaszko. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Michal Ochal, ochalmichal7@gmail.com
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