ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Geriatric Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1659438
This article is part of the Research TopicInnovations and Strategies for Comprehensive Frailty Management in Older PeopleView all 17 articles
Construction of Risk Prediction Model for Dysphagia in Hospitalized Elderly Patients with Frailty
Provisionally accepted
- Mianyang Central Hospital, Mianyang, China
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Objective：To investigate the current status of dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty,and construct a risk prediction model for dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty.Methods：A total of 300 hospitalized elderly patients with frailty were selected as research subjects using a convenience sampling method from May to December 2024 in a tertiary general hospital in Mianyang. The survey tools included the General Information Questionnaire, Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF), Geriatric Self -Efficacy Scale for Oral Health ( GSEOH), Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI), and 5-Item Geriatric Depression Scale(GDS-15).Data were analyzed using SPSS 26.0 software, and variable selection was conducted using the backward LR method to construct the risk prediction model.Results：A total of 300 questionnaires were distributed, and 287 valid questionnaires were retrieved, with an effective recovery rate of 95.7%.Among the 287 patients, 103 cases (35.9%) were identified with dysphagia.Among the 202 patients with a history of choking, 80 cases (39.6%) were identified as having swallowing disorders. In contrast, among the 85 patients without a history of choking, 23 cases (27.1%) had swallowing disorders. The difference was statistically significant (χ²=4.092, P=0.043).Logistic regression analysis showed that age, history of coughing, polypharmacy, malnutrition, oral health-related self-efficacy, and oral health assessment index were risk factors for dysphagia in elderly patients with frailty (P<0.05).The constructed risk prediction model was:Logit P = 0.770 × Age + 0.919 × Polypharmacy + 1.009 × History of Coughing + 1.208 × Malnutrition -0.113 × Oral Health-Related Self-Efficacy -0.262 × Oral Health Assessment Index + 10.200.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated no statistically significant difference between the model's predictions and actual outcomes (χ2 = 6.939, P = 0.543, P>0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.875, with a sensitivity of 0.631 and a specificity of 0.891.Conclusion：The incidence of dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty is relatively high. The main influencing factors include age, history of coughing, polypharmacy, malnutrition, oral health assessment index, and oral health-related self-efficacy. The constructed risk prediction model demonstrates high calibration and discrimination abilities, providing a valuable reference for the early detection, prevention, and intervention of dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty.
Keywords: dysphagia, Frailty, Elderly, Influencing factors, Risk prediction model
Received: 04 Jul 2025; Accepted: 04 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lin, XU, SONG, TAN and Lian. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Chen XU, Mianyang Central Hospital, Mianyang, China
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