ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Pulmonary Medicine
This article is part of the Research TopicCase Reports in Pulmonary Medicine 2025View all 19 articles
The burden of interstitial lung disease and lung cancer among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021 and its projections: A comparative study between China and other G20 countries
Provisionally accepted
- 1贵州中医药大学, 贵阳市, China
- 2内蒙古自治区中医医院, 内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市, China
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Purpose:Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and lung cancer represent significant global health threats. Limited research has examined the disease burden and temporal trends of ILD and lung cancer among adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years). This study aimed to assess the burden of ILD and lung cancer in China, analyze contributing factors, compare this burden with other G20 nations, and forecast future disease trends in China. Methods:For ILD and lung cancer in China, we established incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by executing data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. Analyses that were comparative to other G20 nations were carried out. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess temporal trends in age-standardized rates (ASRs). Decomposition analysis quantified drivers of burden changes. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models projected incidence, mortality, and DALY rates for ILD and lung cancer in China from 2021 to 2050. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, China experienced a steady decline in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), incidence rate (ASIR), death rate (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate for ILD. According to 2021 data, among G20 nations, China ranked 19th in ASPR and ASIR for ILD, while it ranked 20th in both ASDR and DALY rate.In contrast, the burden of lung cancer remained consistently high. With the exception of ASPR, which ranked second, all other burden indicators for lung cancer were the highest among G20 countries, with corresponding EAPCs of 0.22 (95%CI:0.02 to 0.41) for ASPR, –0.52(95%CI:–0.71 to –0.34) for ASIR, –0.98 (95%CI:–1.18 to–0.78) for ASDR, and –1.01 (95%CI:–1.19 to –0.83) for the age-standardized DALY rate.Decomposition analysis further revealed that shifts in epidemiological patterns were the key factor curbing the rise in absolute numbers of prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs for ILD in China, whereas population growth served as the primary driver increasing the prevalence and incidence of lung cancer. Model-based projections indicate that over the next 29 years, the ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALY rate for both ILD and lung cancer in China are expected to continue declining.
Keywords: Interstitial Lung Disease, lung cancer, disease burden, Temporal Trends, Decomposition analysis, Forecasting, Age-standardized rates
Received: 05 Aug 2025; Accepted: 04 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 CHEN, Wang and Qu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jinglian Qu, 2457996873@qq.com
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