ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Hepatobiliary Diseases
This article is part of the Research TopicDigital Technologies in Hepatology: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Epidemiological InsightsView all 19 articles
The Descriptive Epidemiology and Projection of Liver Cancer in Adolescents and Young Adults: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Medical Affairs, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/ Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- 2National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Abstract Background: The global burden of liver cancer among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, 15-39 years) is an emerging concern. This study analyzes epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burden to 2030 to inform prevention strategies. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we calculated age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression analyzed temporal trends, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected future burden. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of AYA liver cancer cases and deaths increased. However, ASIR peaked in the early 2000s before declining to 0.82 per 100,000 in 2021, with ASMR falling to 0.65 per 100,000. A sharp decline occurred around 2001-2005. The disease burden exhibited significant disparities: males had over double the incidence of females (ASIR 1.22 vs. 0.42). High-burden regions included East Asia and West Africa (e.g., Mongolia, Gambia), while middle-SDI regions carried the highest absolute burden. Projections indicate a continued rise in absolute incident cases (to 45,352) and deaths (to 31,448) by 2030, despite a narrowing of health inequalities. Conclusion: Although age-standardized rates have declined, the rising absolute burden of AYA liver cancer and persistent disparities highlight a critical need for targeted, equitable prevention and control measures globally.
Keywords: liver cancer, adolescents, young adults, Global burden, prediction
Received: 21 Aug 2025; Accepted: 14 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yang, Liu and Xu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ke Xu, xuke_xia@126.com
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