ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Geriatric Medicine
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1690631
This article is part of the Research TopicChallenges and Innovations in Healthcare Management and Long-Term Care for an Aging SocietyView all 31 articles
Long-term trends in the burden of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valvular disease in China, 1990-2021, with prediction to 2050: results from the global burden of disease study
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Cardiology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China
- 2Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, PR China, Shiyan, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: Non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease (NRCAVD) has emerged as a significant health challenge globally, with China's rapidly aging population bearing a disproportionate burden, necessitating comprehensive epidemiological analysis to guide public health strategies. Methods: Utilizing the global burden of disease database 2021, we examined the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years coupled with their corresponding age-standardized rates of NRCAVD in China from 1990 to 2021, and compared these data with global trends. The analysis employed join-point to calculate the estimated annual percentage change and average annual percentage change for evaluating NRCAVD trends over the past 32 years. Additionally, we employed the bayesian age-period-cohort model to project the trends until 2050. Results: The age-standardized rates of incidence and prevalence of NRCAVD in China increased from 1.42 to 2.52 per 100,000 and 17.24 to 32.68 per 100,000 respectively from 1990 to 2021, favorably, the age-standardized rates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years of NRCAVD decreased from 0.10 to 0.07 per 100,000 and 2.42 to 1.92 per 100,000 respectively, and males were higher than females in the four metrics over this period. In China, the estimated annual percentage changes of incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years were 2.04%, 2.33%, - 1.34%, and -1.06% respectively, while the average annual percentage changes were 0.04%, 0.50%, 0.00%, and -0.02% respectively. The bayesian age-period-cohort model projections showed the trends of NRCAVD burden would continue to 2050. Discussion: The disease burden of NRCAVD dramatically increased in China from 1990 to 2021, with a notable rise associated with aging. Males appear more susceptible than females and facing higher mortality risks associated with NRCAVD in China. The forecast forewarns this trend will persist until 2050, highlighting NRCAVD is a significant public health challenge in China over the next three decades.
Keywords: non-rheumatic calcific aortic valvular disease, Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years, Global burden of disease, Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Received: 22 Aug 2025; Accepted: 10 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jian, Li, Huang, Wei, Zhao and Fang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jun Fang, ptfangjun@126.com
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.