ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Med.
Sec. Precision Medicine
This article is part of the Research TopicPrecision Diagnostics and Prevention in Bone and Joint Diseases: From Molecular Mechanisms to Clinical TranslationView all 3 articles
Global Burden and Forecast of Malignant Neoplasms of Bone and Articular Cartilage from 1990 to 2030
Provisionally accepted
- 1The Third People's Hospital of Jingdezhen, Jingdezhen, China
- 2Yichang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Yichang, China
- 3Department of Otolaryngology, Tongji Hospital of Tongji University, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
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Background: Malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) are rare but highly lethal cancers, disproportionately affecting children and adolescents. Despite their clinical significance, comprehensive global assessments of their burden and long-term trends remain scarce. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data (1990–2021), we estimated age-standardized incidence (ASIR), death (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY ASR) across 21 geographic and 5 sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Temporal trends were quantified with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Polynomial regression across 1990–2021 was used to assess the association between SDI and disease burden. Age–sex stratification, age–period–cohort (APC) modeling, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) projections to 2030 were conducted. Results: Globally, the MNBAC burden modestly increased over three decades. High-SDI regions experienced declining trends, whereas middle- and low-middle-SDI regions showed substantial increases in incidence and mortality. The polynomial regression analysis revealed that there was an overall negative correlation between SDI and disease burden, but a significant nonlinear relationship existed. Adolescents and older adults carried the highest incidence, with males more frequently affected. Cohort analyses revealed increasing risks in middle-SDI populations, and projections indicate a continuing rise in burden in these regions by 2030, while stabilization or decline is expected elsewhere. Conclusions: Although rare, MNBAC imposes a growing global health burden, particularly in middle-SDI regions and vulnerable populations. Recognizing the nonlinear link between socioeconomic development and disease burden highlights the need for stage-specific strategies, including strengthening early diagnosis, equitable access to care, and targeted prevention strategies is critical to reducing future disparities.
Keywords: Malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage, social-demographic index, Prediction model, burden of disease, Epidemiology
Received: 24 Oct 2025; Accepted: 28 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wu, Wu, Huang and Ning. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yan Ning, ningyan250711@163.com
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