ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Water
Sec. Water and Climate
This article is part of the Research TopicClimate, Water and Land in Africa: Research Trends and ChallengesView all 11 articles
Assessing the contribution of climate change on tropical cyclones related to loss and damages in southern Africa: a case study of tropical cyclones in southern Malawi
Provisionally accepted
- 1University of Malawi, School of Natural and Applied Sciences, P.O. Box 280, Malawi, Malawi, Malawi
- 2university of malawi, zomba, Malawi
- 3Post University, Waterbury, United States
- 4AGNES, Nairobi, Kenya
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This study synthesizes literature and government reports to assess the link between climate change and the occurrence, frequency, and magnitude of tropical cyclones in Southern Malawi. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining spatial mapping, literature synthesis, and trend analysis of cyclone data from the past three decades, analyzing rainfall data from nine meteorological stations using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and conducting stakeholder interviews across four districts. Using literature review of literature and government documents, this study assessed the link between climate change and the occurrence, frequency, and magnitude of tropical cyclones that lead to Loss and damage in several areas, including various types of physical infrastructure, agriculture, and food security in Africa. The study focuses on Southern Africa, using Malawi as a case study. It examines the occurrence and frequency of tropical cyclones in the Southern region over the past 30 years. Specifically, the study aims to: (i) Analyse trends of tropical cyclones and related temperature and extreme rainfall events, including floods, for the past three decades, and (ii) Map areas affected by Tropical cyclones and related extreme rainfall events over the past 30 years Findings reveal an increasing trend in tropical cyclone occurrences since the 2000s, with particularly intense events such as those in 2015, 2019, and 2023 coinciding with La Niña conditions. Statistical analysis using Mann-Kendall trend tests and Pearson correlations 2 confirms significant upward trends in both cyclone frequency (Tau = 0.29, p < 0.05) and rainfall anomalies (r = 0.51, p < 0.01). The results show an increasing occurrence of Tropical cyclones from the 2000s. These findings demonstrate correlations between increased cyclone activity and climate change indicators, consistent with established attribution studies but requiring additional multi-variable climate modeling for definitive causal attribution, reinforcing the need to prioritize agricultural resilience within the Loss and Damage framework under the UNFCCC. The increasing trends of cyclones and intensity show correlations with climate change patterns and align with established climate projections. These observed trends are consistent with regional attribution studies suggesting that management of losses and damages in agriculture deserves special attention within the Loss and Damage framework
Keywords: Loss and damage fund, tropical cyclones, Attribution, Climate Change, Frequency, Intensity, Africa
Received: 29 Jun 2025; Accepted: 21 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Joshua, Kasei and Wamukoya. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Miriam Dalitso Kalanda Joshua, madalitsojoshua@yahoo.com
Raymond Abudu Kasei, rakasei@gmail.com
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