ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Water
Sec. Water Resource Management
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/frwa.2025.1680799
The Rogun Dam Project: Evolution from Conflict to Cooperation between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
Provisionally accepted
Kazimierz Salewicz1*
Mikiyasu Nakayama2- 1mpindustries.at, Vienna, Austria
- 2Global Infrastructure Fund Japan, Tokyo, Japan
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The Rogun Dam project, designed to be the world's tallest dam, represents a remarkable case of transboundary water conflict transformation in Central Asia. This study examines how relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan evolved from near-military confrontation to emerging cooperation over this contentious hydropower project. Initially conceived during the Soviet era as an internal infrastructure development, the dam became a flashpoint for regional tensions following the USSR's collapse in 1991, with downstream Uzbekistan strongly opposing its construction. Through qualitative case study methodology, we analyze how domestic political dynamics—particularly leadership change in Uzbekistan in 2016—fundamentally altered bilateral relations and regional hydropolitics. Our research reveals that while technical assessments by international organizations provided necessary factual foundations, the decisive factor in conflict transformation was the shift in political leadership that prioritized economic integration and mutual benefits over zero-sum competition. This study contributes to transboundary water management literature by demonstrating that internal political transformations can be as significant as international diplomatic frameworks in resolving seemingly intractable water disputes. The Rogun case offers valuable insights for addressing similar conflicts globally, highlighting how leadership-driven diplomatic shifts can transform water conflicts into opportunities for regional cooperation. Through qualitative case study methodology incorporating analysis of publicly available various sorts of documents, we traced the evolution of bilateral relations over three decades while examining the interplay between domestic political transitions and international water diplomacy frameworks. Semi-structured content analysis of documents was supplemented with contextual examination of regional economic and geopolitical factors influencing stakeholder positions
Keywords: Transboundary Water Management1, Rogun Dam2, Hydropolitics3, Conflict Transformation4, Tajikistan-Uzbekistan Relations5
Received: 06 Aug 2025; Accepted: 23 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Salewicz and Nakayama. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Kazimierz Salewicz, k.salewicz@gmail.com
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