Revisiting agricultural policies in Morocco through the lens of virtual water trade: a literature review

Abstract

Morocco, a semi-arid country and a recognized climate change hotspot, faces increasing water scarcity, with renewable water resources estimated at 22 billion m³ in 2023. This study presents a critical literature review to examine, first, the effects of Morocco’s agricultural policies on water resource availability and sustainability, and second, the economic rationale underlying the virtual water concept. It explores methods for quantifying virtual water and evaluates the potential contribution of virtual water trade to mitigating water stress. Particular attention is given to empirical studies addressing Morocco’s water footprint and virtual water flows. The findings reveal a notable disconnect between agricultural development strategies and water policy objectives. Furthermore, existing research on virtual water in Morocco remains limited. Available evidence suggests that Morocco is a net importer of virtual water. The study concludes that integrating the virtual water approach into national agricultural planning and international trade strategies could enhance sustainable water management and support policy coherence in addressing water stress in arid and semi-arid contexts.

1 Introduction

Water is the most essential element indispensable to all forms of life. This resource is vulnerable to numerous challenges that limit its abundance and restrict its availability, both for domestic use and for use in agriculture and other economic sectors. Indeed, water contributes to the psychosocial wellbeing of the population by providing employment, reducing poverty, and ensuring energy and food security (Hussein, 2011). Climate change, increasing human consumption of water and food, rapid population growth, and the overexploitation of aquifers are all factors exerting growing pressure on the availability of water resources, thereby generating severe water stress (Ekwueme and Agunwamba, 2020). Furthermore, the United Nations estimates that by 2050, more than half of the world’s population will be living in water-stressed regions (UN, 2015). In light of this alarming situation, and in accordance with the other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), access to clean and safe water, as well as reducing the number of people vulnerable to water stress, are the main objectives of the sixth Sustainable Development Goal set by the United Nations for 2030 (UN, 2015). Similarly, the Dublin International Conference on Water and the Environment concluded its report with four fundamental principles recognizing water as a major issue requiring urgent and coordinated action. The first principle states that “water is a finite, vulnerable, and essential resource that must be managed in an integrated manner,” while the fourth defines water as a resource with “economic value in all its competing uses” that must be recognized as an economic good. In 2015, the World Economic Forum identified water stress as a global risk threatening international security (World Economic Forum, 2015).

Like other MENA countries, Morocco is located in a region where one drought episode follows another, causing major socio-economic challenges for the national government (Esper et al., 2007). This water stress is further exacerbated, leading to desertification (Benbrahim et al., 2004), poverty, famine, social crises (Anderson et al., 2021) and water scarcity (El Moçayd et al., 2020) all of which have a direct impact on the country’s various economic sectors. These impacts are particularly concerning in light of the significant population growth and the increasing water demand from different economic sectors (Global Nexus, 2017). By testing different short, medium, and long-term scenarios, Gumus et al. (2024) showed that Morocco is likely to face a growing risk of aridity caused by decreasing rainfall and rising temperatures. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the proportion of drought-affected areas in the northern region is projected to reach around 80% on average after 2075.

The severity of water stress and its potential to constrain socio-economic development have compelled the Moroccan government to carefully consider solutions aimed at mitigating its negative impacts on various economic sectors, particularly agriculture. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and remains a cornerstone of the Moroccan economy, contributing more than 12% to the national GDP. It is also highly susceptible to several adverse impacts, such as increased soil salinity and land degradation. Gumus et al. (2024) found that cereal production in Morocco is severely affected by drought. In light of this situation, pressure on groundwater resources continues to increase (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Economie, des Finances et de la Réforme de l’Administration, Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières, 2020), leading to the depletion of several aquifers across the country.

The overconsumption of water resources by the agricultural sector in Morocco, combined with their limited availability, calls for a rethinking of how water supply is managed. The concept of virtual water trade, introduced by Allan (1997) was proposed as an initiative to prevent potential water conflicts in the Middle East. Another fundamental concept, the water footprint, developed by Hoekstra in 2002, measures the actual water consumption associated with different agricultural productions (Hoekstra and Hung, 2002). Both concepts can be used by planners and decision-makers to integrate water considerations into strategic agricultural policy planning. Numerous studies worldwide have examined virtual water trade between arid and humid regions as a means of managing water resources. For instance, intra-regional virtual water trade within the European Union accounts for 46% of total imports and 75% of total exports from the region (Antonelli et al., 2017a). Similarly, in the United States, the volume of virtual water in the agricultural sector reaches 317 billion m³ per year (Dang et al., 2014).

This paper aims to review the literature on the current state of water resources in Morocco, highlighting the points of convergence and divergence between public agricultural and water policies, and summarizing the main studies on the water footprint and virtual water trade in the country.

For this literature review, scientific articles were collected from well-established academic databases, including Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, MDPI, and FAOSTAT. In addition, institutional reports from the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Equipment and Water, hydraulic basin agencies, and public policy evaluation bodies such as the Court of Auditors and the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council were also consulted. As inclusion criteria, studies focusing on virtual water trade, agricultural water use, analyses of Moroccan crop production and its implications for water sustainability, as well as agricultural and water policy frameworks in Morocco, were selected. Only publications appearing in peer-reviewed journals or official institutional reports between 1960 and 2025 were considered, in order to capture the evolution of Morocco’s agricultural and water management policies over time. The documents included were primarily in French and English, the two main languages of scientific and institutional reporting in this field. After the initial collection phase, all documents were systematically screened to exclude non-relevant publications. The selected articles and reports were then analyzed in detail to extract information related to agricultural policies, water management practices, and virtual water trade. The adopted methodology ensured a comprehensive and rigorous synthesis of the relevant literature within the framework of a narrative review.

This study is organized as follows. The first section discusses Morocco’s water situation, the evolution of water resource management methods over time, and the challenges associated with achieving more effective management of both surface and groundwater resources.

The second section examines the relationship between Morocco’s agricultural and water policies.

The third section analyses the concept of virtual water as an approach to alleviating pressure on water resources.

The fourth section explores the origins of virtual water trade from an economic perspective.

The fifth section presents the main approaches used to quantify virtual water.

Finally, the last section reviews the studies that have examined water footprints and virtual water trade in Morocco.

2 Water resources in Morocco: management approach, and governance challenges

2.1 Status of water resources in Morocco

Morocco receives an average annual precipitation of approximately 140 billion m³ (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). However, the distribution of these water resources is highly uneven across the country. The nation’s renewable natural water resources are estimated at around 22 billion m³ per year, corresponding to an availability of approximately 606 m³ per capita in 2023. Of this total, about 18 billion m³ are classified as surface water resources (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). As illustrated in Figure 1, both spatial and temporal variability strongly influence the distribution of surface water. For instance, water flow in arid regions, particularly within the southern and southeastern basins, may amount to only a few million cubic meters per year, whereas northern and northeastern basins can generate several billion cubic meters annually. The Sebou, Oum Er-Rbia, and Moulouya basins, which together represent about 7% of the country’s total area, account for nearly two-thirds of Morocco’s surface water resources. Interestingly, these regions are characterized by relatively low per capita water demand and limited agricultural land availability.

Figure 1

Morocco’s groundwater resources, estimated at 4 billion m³, are drawn from 129 aquifers (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). The Sais aquifer, the Mnasra coastal aquifer, the Gharb aquifer, and the deep Sahara aquifer constitute the country’s main groundwater reserves. However, these resources are increasingly degraded due to pollution caused by high nitrate concentrations, pesticide residues, and agricultural fertilizers, further exacerbated by the excessive use of agrochemicals. For exemple, Sanad et al. (2024) reported severe groundwater contamination in the Gharb region resulting from agricultural activities. Additionally, groundwater resources are often highly mineralized, which further reduces their quality. Rapid population growth has also intensified pressure on water resources (Qiu et al., 2023). Consequently, water availability per capita has declined from 2,500 m³ in 1960 to less than 650 m³ in 2023 and is projected to fall below 500 m³ by 2030, pushing Morocco into the “water scarcity” category, following its previous classification under “water stress.”

Temporal variability in water availability also presents a significant challenge to sustainable resource management. Global surface temperatures during the first two decades of the 21st century (2001–2020) were 0.99 °C higher than in 1850–1900 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023). This warming trend is expected to further exacerbate Morocco’s water crisis, as illustrated in Figure 2, which shows a decline in precipitation across the country. For example, evapotranspiration resulted in the loss of approximately 118 billion m³ of water in 2023 alone (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). Additionally, prolonged droughts, with seven major events recorded between 1955 and 2004 (Agoumi and Debbarh, 2006), increasing soil salinity, and desertification are additional consequences of climate change. Collectively, these factors threaten the sustainability of Morocco’s water resources, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive and integrated water management strategies.

Figure 2

2.2 Management of water resources in Morocco

To mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure sustainable water resource management, Morocco adopted a dam construction policy as early as the 1960s. These infrastructures were designed to increase the water supply for domestic consumption, irrigate 1.5 million hectares of agricultural land, generate hydroelectric energy (accounting for 10% of national electricity needs), and significantly reduce flood risks. In 2023, Morocco has 152 large dams with a total storage capacity of 19.9 billion m³ (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). However, this capacity is at risk of declining due to increased evaporation from rising temperatures and sedimentation processes leading to silt accumulation.

Effective management and planning of water resources are critical to their sustainability. In this regard, Greve et al. (2018) analyzed water scarcity challenges and management strategies, emphasizing the importance of integrated water resources management (IWRM). As part of its efforts, Morocco enacted Law 10–95 in 1995 and established Hydraulic Basin Agencies (HBAs) to safeguard water resources and ecosystems. This regionalized basin management approach has been instrumental in assessing water availability and ensuring the sustainability of resources (Visentin, 2017). In 2009, the National Water Strategy was launched to provide a comprehensive and objective assessment of the country’s water situation by 2030. The strategy outlined key challenges, objectives, and orientations to achieve integrated and sustainable water resource management. Accordingly, Morocco implemented the National Irrigation Water Saving Program (NIWSP) for the period 2008–2020, with the objective of converting 550,000 ha to subsidized localized drip irrigation, increasing productivity and water-use efficiency, and ensuring sustainable management of water resources (Royaume du Maroc, Cour des comptes, 2018). In addition, the Irrigation Extension Program (IEP) was implemented during the same period (2008–2020) with the aim of developing 1.2 billion m³/year of water, making public investments in water resource mobilization (e.g., dams) profitable, increasing agricultural added value by almost 2.3 billion MAD/year, creating nearly 60,000 permanent jobs, increasing farmers’ incomes, and mitigating rural-to-urban migration.

Further strengthening of water governance occurred with the enactment of Law 36–15 in 2015, which introduced decentralized and participatory water policies. This legislation facilitated the creation of Hydraulic Basin Councils, tasked with evaluating, planning, and managing water resources at the basin level (Royaume du Maroc, 2016). Additionally, the National Water Plan was updated, accompanied by institutional mechanisms for oversight and implementation, including the Interministerial Water Commission and the Higher Council for Water and Climate. These initiatives aim to establish a clear roadmap for addressing water challenges and promoting sustainable resource management practices.

In response to the increasing challenges posed by climate variability and recurrent drought episodes, Morocco launched the National Program for Potable Water Supply and Irrigation (2020–2027) in 2020, with a total investment of 143 billion Moroccan dirhams (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Equipement et de l’eau, Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique, 2023). The program aims to enhance water availability through accelerated investments in this strategic sector, thereby strengthening the country’s capacity to ensure sustainable water management. In 2024, a national roadmap for water resource mobilization was established, emphasizing the deployment of seawater desalination plants powered by renewable energy, the construction of additional dams, and the interconnection of major hydraulic basins through large-scale water transfer systems, often referred to as “water highways.” As of 2025, Morocco has 17 seawater desalination plants either operational or under construction, expected to be fully completed by 2028, with a total capacity of 322.1 Mm³ (Vedie, 2025). Approximately 21.7% of this capacity, equivalent to 69.9 Mm³, is dedicated to agricultural irrigation (Vedie, 2025). Furthermore, nine additional desalination plants are planned by 2040, with a projected capacity of 935.74 Mm³. To further expand its water supply, Morocco has initiated an ambitious dam construction program, expected to increase national storage capacity by over 4,730 Mm³ (Vedie, 2025). Currently, 16 dams are under construction, representing a cumulative capacity of 4,420 Mm³, while 13 additional dams, with a combined capacity of 310 Mm³, are scheduled for completion by 2040 (Vedie, 2025). Beyond these infrastructural efforts, Morocco has also invested in hydraulic interconnection projects designed to link water-surplus and water-deficit basins, thus reducing freshwater losses to the sea and optimizing the spatial distribution of resources. The first major project, transferring 500 Mm³ of water from the Sebou Basin in northern Morocco to the Bouregreg Basin, now secures potable water supply for the cities of Rabat, Casablanca, and Mohammedia, which together host over 10 million inhabitants. A second interconnection, currently under development, will connect the Bouregreg and Oum Er-Rbia basins to provide drinking and irrigation water to key agricultural zones. In addition to conventional water resources, Morocco has increasingly mobilized non-conventional sources to reinforce its water security. The reuse of treated wastewater has emerged as a strategic alternative to support irrigation and urban supply. Previous research (Pereira et al., 2002; Trinh et al., 2013) has shown that wastewater reuse and desalination can help alleviate water shortages by increasing water supply, particularly to meet crop water demands. Morocco currently operates 41 wastewater treatment and reuse projects, with an annual treatment volume of approximately 32 Mm³, although only 0.3% of this volume is currently used for agricultural irrigation (Lemfarrak et al., 2025). The government aims to increase treated wastewater reuse to 100 Mm³ per year by 2027 (Royaume du Maroc, Cour des Comptes, 2024). Collectively, these initiatives reflect Morocco’s growing awareness of the water crisis and its commitment to ensuring the sustainability and resilience of its water resources. They also demonstrate a proactive approach to mitigating the economic and environmental impacts of water scarcity, positioning Morocco as a regional model for integrated water resource management under arid and semi-arid conditions.

2.3 Challenges in the governance and management of water resources in Morocco

Despite significant efforts, underdeveloped and developing countries continue to face obstacles that limit and slow the effective management of their water resources. Besada and Werner (2015) identified several factors contributing to pressure on hydraulic systems across Africa, including weak public administration, inadequate water resource management, insufficient long-term investment, and limited support for research and development in water and environmental sciences. Similarly, Morocco’s Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) has highlighted obstacles hindering the optimization of water resources within the country. One critical issue is the complexity, slowness, and multiplicity of actors involved in granting regulatory permits for groundwater exploitation. These challenges have increasingly encouraged illicit practices and the overexploitation of groundwater. As of 2023, it is estimated that 80% of wells and boreholes in Morocco operate without authorization (Royaume du Maroc, Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental, 2023).

At the administrative level, overlapping responsibilities and poor coordination among stakeholders further undermine integrated water management. Additionally, the limited operational effectiveness of Morocco’s Water Police has constrained the country’s capacity to safeguard its water resources. This enforcement mechanism, composed of qualified and authorized agents drawn from multiple administrative entities, including the Hydraulic Basin Agencies, the Regional Agricultural Development Offices, the Environmental Police, as well as local, municipal, and judicial authorities, is entrusted with protecting the public hydraulic domain. Its core mandates include monitoring and preserving water resources, preventing pollution and illegal withdrawals, and verifying permits and compliance with water-related regulations (Royaume du Maroc, 2016). The Water Police is also empowered to record violations and recommend appropriate administrative sanctions in cases of non-compliance.

Despite this comprehensive institutional framework and the multidisciplinary expertise of its agents, covering technical, administrative, and legal dimensions, the Water Police remains underutilized and insufficiently coordinated (Royaume du Maroc, Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental, 2023). This institutional weakness limits its capacity to effectively enforce regulations, mitigate water-related infractions, and ensure the sustainable management of Morocco’s hydraulic resources.

The Participatory Groundwater Management Contract (Contrat de Nappe) represents an innovative governance mechanism introduced under Morocco’s Water Law No. 36-15, aimed at ensuring the sustainable and locally driven management of groundwater resources. It is based on the active participation and collective commitment of regional and local stakeholders, including Hydraulic Basin Agencies, local authorities, water user associations, and agricultural operators, within a framework of consultation and shared responsibility (Royaume du Maroc, 2016). This contractual mechanism promotes a collaborative and integrated approach to groundwater governance, fostering joint planning and equitable management of extraction and recharge activities. However, the limited adoption of groundwater contracts remains a major challenge within Morocco’s water policy framework. To date, only a few pilot initiatives have been implemented, notably in the Souss-Massa basin, Meski-Boudnib, Feija (Zagora province), and the Berrechid and Fès-Meknès aquifers. Despite their promising outcomes in fostering stakeholder engagement and improving water-use efficiency, these experiences have not yet been scaled up or institutionalized at the national level. The underutilization of this tool is primarily due to fragmented institutional policies, the absence of a coherent coordination mechanism among stakeholders, and limited synergy between local and national water governance structures. Moreover, the modernization of Morocco’s water sector continues to face structural constraints, particularly the lack of an integrated information and monitoring system capable of facilitating data sharing, coordination, and harmonization across all actors (Royaume du Maroc, Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental, 2023). Establishing such a system is essential to strengthen evidence-based decision-making, promote policy coherence, and align multi-stakeholder efforts to address the country’s increasing hydrological and climatic pressures.

According to the Morocco’s Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) 2014 report, Morocco’s water supply is increasingly threatened by factors such as climate change and the depletion or degradation of conventional resources. This underscores the urgent need to mobilize all efforts to enhance water availability through the use of non-conventional resources, including desalination, wastewater reuse, and innovative water conservation technologies (Royaume du Maroc, Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental, 2014).

3 Agriculture in Morocco: importance, challenges, and impact on water resources

The agricultural sector is central to Morocco’s economy, covering 8 million hectares of Utilized Agricultural Area (UAA), with cereal crops dominating 59% of this area. This sector contributes approximately 12% to the national GDP and employs 38% of the population, predominantly in rural areas. Moroccan agriculture is highly correlated with GDP (Elalaoui et al., 2021). Since the 1980s, Morocco has made significant investments to modernize agriculture, aiming to ensure food self-sufficiency and enhance competitiveness on international markets.

Figure 3 shows that Morocco has signed a multitude of free-trade agreements with numerous economic partners, including the agricultural agreement with the European Union, as well as agreements with Turkey, Arab countries, and the USA. These agreements reflect Morocco’s strategy to strengthen its trade integration and diversify its economic partnerships, particularly in the agricultural sector.

Figure 3

Free trade agreements and the dependence of Moroccan economic growth on the agricultural sector have led to an intensification of agricultural activity and an unsustainable use of water resources, alongside environmental degradation (Alauddin and Quiggin, 2008; Gohari et al., 2013).

Seekell et al. (2011) underlined that water use differs from one sector to another, generating inequality primarily due to the agricultural sector, the climate, and the availability of arable land. Moreover, this concentration of agricultural activity in arid countries creates pressure on the sustainability of resources (Cazcarro et al., 2015). In the same context, Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) analyzed the economic productivity of water in Morocco during the period 1996–2005. They found that wheat, barley, olives, maize, and almonds were the most water-consuming crops (accounting for 84.8% of green and blue water), generating very low economic productivity of water, ranging from 0.08 USD/m³ for wheat to 0.02 USD/m³ for almonds. However, the year 2008 was marked by a number of constraints, such as low investment capacity, poor organization, drought, and traditional farm management. In light of this, the Green Morocco Plan (GMP) was launched as an agricultural program by the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, aiming to reorganize the agricultural sector and combat poverty by 2020, while making agriculture a driver of economic growth.

To achieve these objectives, the Green Morocco Plan (GMP) was founded on two fundamental pillars. The first pillar aims to transform Moroccan agriculture from traditional to modern, competitive, and more market-oriented by mobilizing a series of private investments through aggregations. These aggregations bring together 540,000 farmers across 961 projects, with total funding of 75 billion MAD (≈7.5 billion USD). The second pillar, with a social footprint and a budget of 20 billion MAD (≈2.0 billion USD), aims to alleviate poverty by increasing the agricultural income of small- and medium-sized farmers, particularly in the most vulnerable regions (Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’Agriculture de la Pêche maritime Royaume du Maroc, 2009). Under this pillar, a total of 860,000 farmers are expected to benefit from support and assistance focused on three types of projects: (1) transforming cereal crops into high value-added crops through the conversion of large agricultural areas, (2) developing local products to generate additional income for farmers, and (3) supporting farmers in the use of new agricultural and irrigation techniques, enabling them to improve, increase, and enhance their yields.

Aït-Kadi M (2002) showed that for a percentage of arable land not exceeding 16%, irrigation contributes an average of 45% of agricultural added value, reaching up to 70% during periods of drought (accounting for 75% of agricultural exports). Molle and Tanouti (2017) noted a major divergence between Morocco’s agricultural policy (Green Morocco Plan 2008–2020) and water policies aimed at protecting water resources. They found that agriculture subsidized by the GMP has led to the overexploitation of groundwater due to the attractiveness of agricultural markets and the reduced costs of drilling, pumping, and irrigation equipment, resulting in groundwater depletion (Silva-Novoa Sánchez et al., 2022). In the same line of thought, Morocco’s drought situation is classified as serious, affecting 50–55% of the population (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Abdelmajid et al. (2023) demonstrated that the GMP has not guaranteed food self-sufficiency, particularly for “strategic” products such as sugar, oilseeds, and cereals, thereby increasing Morocco’s dependence on imports. The authors also noted that the selection of agricultural commodities emphasized by the GMP, mainly export-oriented crops such as citrus, olives, and fruits, was not adequately analyzed, as these crops are characterized by high water consumption in a context where Morocco is increasingly facing a decline in water resources. This situation affects both food and water security, prompting decision-makers to consider more appropriate agricultural policies (Tamea et al., 2016).

The water stress in countries such as Morocco may be rooted in socio-economic and environmental factors (Graham et al., 2020). Boudhar et al. (2017) conducted an input–output model analysis of the relationships between economic sectors and the use of water resources (Direct Water Use), as well as inter sectoral water relationships (Indirect Water Use), and concluded that the agricultural sector is the largest consumer of direct water, accounting for more than 86% of total use across all sectors. In addition, drip irrigation subsidized under the Green Morocco Plan (GMP) has not achieved the expected good governance and sustainable management of water resources, rather, it largely contributes to the overexploitation of these resources (Alonso et al., 2019; Molle and Tanouti, 2017) driving a decrease in the water balance (Seif-Ennasr et al., 2016) and the deterioration of groundwater quality (Malki et al., 2017).

In the same vein, the water resources situation is expected to worsen due to increasing drought in the future (El Moçayd et al., 2020; Esper et al., 2007; Kusunose and Lybbert, 2014), leading to poor food quality, environmental degradation, and increased evaporation and plant transpiration (Kang et al., 2009). The replacement of traditional crops with high value-added export crops, such as tomatoes, has had a major impact on Morocco’s water resources, particularly in the regions where these crops are cultivated. Indeed, several studies (Benabderrazik et al., 2021; Molle and Tanouti, 2017) have shown that investments in irrigation for tomato production cannot adequately cope with the effects of water scarcity. In addition, Boudhar et al. (2023) highlighted that cultivating tomatoes for export resulted in the virtual export of 5,126.37 Hm³ of water to foreign countries between 2000 and 2017. At the same time, cereal crops, notably wheat, are the most water-intensive products at the national level, occupying 71% of the UAA, and almost 90% of cereal crop growth depends on green water (Achli et al., 2022), making these water-consuming crops more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Hakam et al., 2023).

In their study Hekmatnia (2023) investigated global virtual water flows for wheat during the period 2002–2021. They found that 68.3% of virtual water in the global wheat trade is unsustainable. In another study, Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) estimated water consumption for wheat production in Morocco between 1996 and 2005 at 10.981 Mm³/year. Between 2003–2007 and 2015–2016, cereal production in Morocco increased by 64 million quintals, reaching 80 million quintals, making this sector the largest consumer of water resources in the country.

In another context, the heavy use of fertilizers and phytosanitary products increases the pollution of water resources, making them unsuitable for human or animal consumption or irrigation. The assessment of drought in agriculture must consider the various interactions between plants, soil, and atmosphere, as well as all relevant information and data, such as soil moisture, plant water demand, and evapotranspiration deficit (Liu et al., 2016). Conversely, Morocco’s vulnerability to drought remains a major obstacle to stabilizing or increasing agricultural productivity through the maintenance and proper governance of irrigation systems (Driouech et al., 2021; Maggioni, 2015), since the effects of climate change have led to increased temperatures and decreased precipitation, which could impact various actors in the hydraulic system supplying the agricultural economy with water resources, such as river flow (El Moçayd et al., 2020) and snow cover (Tuel et al., 2022). Consequently, the installation of drip irrigation systems and the international opening through trade policies have promoted the intensification of existing agricultural systems, shifting towards high value-added export crops, such as fresh fruits and vegetables (Ameur et al., 2017; Kang et al., 2009).

The analysis of the balance between food self-sufficiency and water sustainability in Morocco reveals a structural tension between the pursuit of food security and the preservation of water resources. Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) demonstrated that Moroccan agricultural production mobilizes substantial volumes of both blue and green water, particularly for high-value crops destined for export markets. In this context, studies by Boudhar et al. (2023) and Ridaoui et al. (2025) highlight that the importation of water-intensive cereal products, especially wheat, can serve as a strategic lever to conserve local water resources while supporting national food security. According to Boudhar et al. (2023) Morocco imported approximately 182.70 Gm³ of wheat from global markets between 2000 and 2017. Similarly, Ridaoui et al. (2025) reported that the country imported about 52,346.877 Mm³ of virtual water from European Union countries between 2000 and 2020, thereby contributing to the preservation of domestic water reserves and the achievement of food self-sufficiency, particularly in wheat supply. Schyns and Hoekstra (2014), in a comparative study with the Netherlands, estimated that Morocco saves around 640 million m³ of water annually through its trade relations with the Netherlands. This mechanism of virtual water transfer illustrates how external water dependence can alleviate pressure on overexploited basins, provided it is integrated within a coherent trade and agricultural policy framework. Consequently, the sustainability of Morocco’s food system depends on its ability to reconcile domestic production, targeted imports, and integrated water resource management, taking into account climatic conditions and the ecological limits of each hydraulic basin.

Other authors such as Mancosu et al. (2015) suggest that crop diversification and an orientation towards sustainable agriculture, aimed at maximizing crop yields and meeting crop water requirements, could be effective in the face of water stress. Meanwhile, authors such as Yawson et al. (2013) have emphasized the importance of considering both water and food security objectives in the development of strategic policies, including international water trade (Paterson et al., 2015). Currently, faced with this water scarcity, Morocco must take into account the water footprint of agricultural crops when preparing its agricultural policies, by encouraging the production of crops with a low water footprint and promoting virtual water trade as a tool to mitigate and alleviate pressure on water resources (Vallino et al., 2021).

4 Virtual water trade: a sustainable approach for water management and food security

As an alternative, the concept of virtual water trade was introduced by the British geographer J.A. Allan in 1997, enabling countries to avoid conflicts over water, especially in the Middle East, and to gain low-cost indirect access to global water resources (Allan, 1997). Expressed in m³, the concept of virtual water can be defined as all the water consumed during a production process to produce a good that will be exported to another region where it will be consumed.

A few years later, in 2002, Hoekstra and Hung introduced the concept of the water footprint, analogous to the “ecological footprint,” representing “the volume of water necessary for the production of goods and services consumed by the country’s inhabitants” (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2007a) The water footprint includes both direct and indirect water used in the production process (Allan, 1993), whereas the water footprint of a product is the volume of freshwater used to produce that product, measured across the entire supply chain. Three types of water are distinguished: blue water, representing the volume of surface or groundwater incorporated into the product or returned to another watershed or the sea, without accounting for water evaporated during and after irrigation, as it is part of the water cycle; green water, corresponding to effective precipitation and soil moisture assimilated by plants; and grey water, referring to the volume required to assimilate the pollutant load caused by production processes, based on existing ambient water quality standards (Hoekstra, 2017).

Green water depends mainly on climatic conditions, but other factors, such as land-use planning at the watershed level, can also influence its availability. Blue water availability depends indirectly on rainfall and groundwater, which constitute its sources of supply. Moreover, the quantity of water needed to produce one unit of a good is called its virtual water content, measured in kg (m³/kg) or $ (m³/$). In economic terms, in contrast to green water, the management and mobilization of blue water across space and time generate higher financial costs (e.g., dam construction).

Over the years, the water footprint concept has developed into an independent discipline of research and application. Similar to the ecological footprint, the water footprint has played a major role in raising public awareness of the importance of preserving natural resources and can be considered both as an indicator of a country’s water demand and as a measure of water efficiency (Wang et al., 2021). It also serves as a tool to measure the environmental impact of increased water consumption (Berger and Finkbeiner, 2010; Pfister et al., 2009; Ridoutt and Pfister, 2010).

Although the USA, China, and the Netherlands are the most productive countries in terms of publications and research on water footprint and virtual water (Weijing et al., 2020), most studies in this field have focused on the water footprint of cities, provinces, river basins, or entire countries, showing that virtual water is unequally distributed on an international scale (Buytaert and De Bievre, 2012).

To ensure water security and mitigate the negative effects of climate change, particularly rainfall disruption and hydrological variability, virtual water trade could provide a solution (Graham et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2022). Moreover, it can be considered an alternative strategy to reduce agricultural imports in certain countries, thereby contributing to food security and economic stability (Sandström et al., 2018). This concept is influenced by several factors, including a country’s production system, climate, and the availability of arable land (Egea et al., 2024), as well as economic structure, average standard of living, population, geographical factors (Duarte et al., 2019; Odey et al., 2021) and geopolitical considerations (Meng et al., 2017; Tian et al., 2018).

D’Odorico et al. (2010) suggested the idea of international virtual water trading as a strategy to resist various forms of drought at the national level. Dalin and Conway (2016) highlighted in Africa that the virtual water trade mechanism enables rational water mobilization in a context marked by climatic shocks. At the regional level, Faramarzi et al. (2010) recommended the use of virtual water trading to alleviate water scarcity, based on analyses of different wheat production scenarios in Iran.

Furthermore, through virtual water trade grounded in the theory of comparative advantage, the mechanism helps improve food security, particularly in countries facing water scarcity. However, Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007b) estimated that around 16% of international water consumption is used to produce goods and services for export. In contrast, Konar and Caylor (2013) analyzing development in Africa through the prism of virtual water, concluded that virtual water trade inhibits the spread of malnutrition in the continent. This role has also been studied in the MENA region, one of the world’s most water-scarce regions. Indeed, (Antonelli and Tamea, 2015; Antonelli et al., 2017a,b; Vallino et al., 2021) have shown that virtual water trading can help secure food supplies in MENA countries and mitigate their vulnerability to water scarcity.

5 Economic perspectives on virtual water: theories, critiques, and implications for resource management

In order to explore the economic foundations of the virtual water concept, it is first useful to define water from an economic perspective. The OECD defined water as an “economic good” on the grounds that scarce economic resources must be mobilized to make water available in the form, quality, location, and timing required by users (OECD, 1987). Similarly, Zisopoulou et al. (2022) agree with the classification of water as an economic good, noting that water satisfies the definition of an economic good according to Robbins (Robbins, 1984). With its particular characteristics, essential for life and health, non-substitutable, and scarce, water is distinguished from other economic goods by its specificity: it cannot be produced or manufactured on demand and is not freely negotiable (Grimble, 1999; Savenije, 2002).

Although the term virtual water is widely used across many fields, the majority of studies on virtual water originate from scientific disciplines such as environmental science, water science, and environmental engineering (Weijing et al., 2020). Merrett (1997) was one of the first economists to define the concept of virtual water within an economic framework, presenting it as a creative evolution of economic theories (Brilly, 2002). In 2003, Allan and Lant found a strong alignment between virtual water and Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage (Lant, 2003; El Majdoubi and El Ayadi, 2024). Indeed, the relative abundance of water, combined with a comparison of full costs among different commercial actors, can generate a regional comparative advantage in the water sector (Duchin and López-Morales, 2012; Wichelns, 2004).

On the other hand, Wichelns (2004) criticizes Allan and Lant’s postulate, arguing that the two concepts are not analogous. Virtual water considers only water endowment as the sole factor in trade flows, whereas comparative advantage theory also accounts for opportunity costs and production technologies. Similarly, Merrett (2003) opposed the use of the term “virtual water” and recommended replacing it with “food imports.” A decade later, Reimer (2012) considered the concept inconsistent with the fundamentals of international trade because it disregarded other factors embodied in goods that include water, proposing instead the concept of “import of water services.”

Relying on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson trade model, Ansink (2010) also criticized the concept of virtual water, arguing that it makes assertions inconsistent with empirical evidence and standard economic theory. Nonetheless, many economists suggest that, by allowing the free market in water to self-regulate, virtual water flows from water-abundant to water-scarce regions could alleviate water scarcity, in line with the laws of comparative advantage (Huang et al., 2017).

Han et al. (2023) highlighted the gains and losses of virtual water trade, finding that transferring virtual water from economically less developed regions to economically developed ones can generate positive economic gains. These gains are contingent upon good governance in the management of water resources, which involves not only national governments but also international organizations and private sector actors (Vos and Boelens, 2018). Measurement of these gains can be undertaken at the country, regional, or city level. For example, Liao et al. (2021) assessed the economic benefits of virtual water trade in the Jing JinJi region of China using a multi-regional input–output model combined with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). They found that 90% of virtual water trade originates from the agricultural sector, and that this trade contributes to economic co-benefits in the region by promoting economic development and job creation. At the continental scale, African countries apply the theory of comparative advantage to increase profits by importing large quantities of water-intensive agricultural products (Konar and Caylor, 2013).

The virtual water trade has demonstrated its usefulness across all economic sectors, however, the agricultural sector remains the most water-intensive, drawing particular attention to the trade of agricultural products. It also enables a more efficient reallocation of water resources between countries, regions, and sectors (Lili et al., 2024). D’Odorico et al. (2020) studied the economic value of water in agriculture, concluding that in some regions, the economic value of water can reach up to 1,000 times its market price. Schwarz et al. (2015) further developed the analysis of virtual water, focusing on the global agri-food sector and examining the impact of changes in international trade dynamics on economic efficiency and resource use, while also measuring the evolving economic impacts of virtual water trade on agri-food trade.

Even the economic efficiency of the virtual water trade concept and its contribution to mitigating international water scarcity are influenced by several factors. De Fraiture et al. (2004) assessed this efficiency in the international cereals trade and concluded that geopolitical and economic considerations limit the role that virtual water trade can play in addressing water scarcity. These political factors were further exacerbated by the Russian-Ukrainian war, which had a major impact on international wheat trade (Branger et al., 2023; Luwedde and Nakazi, 2024).

In another study, Wu et al. (2022), examined the impact of global trade in wheat, maize, and rice on scarce virtual water resources from 2008 to 2017. Their results indicate that international trade in wheat and maize saves scarce water, whereas trade in rice increases losses of scarce water. They also found that the economic efficiency and role of virtual water trade depend on the types of products traded. Crop yields, bilateral economic scale, and agricultural labor resources are additional factors influencing virtual water flows (Zhang et al., 2024). Tamea et al. (2014) found that the size of the importer’s economy, population size, and geographical proximity are key determinants of virtual water flows. According to Oki et al. (2017) who proposed a classification of countries based on estimated water resources per capita, there is a close relationship between a country’s GDP per capita and its potential for mitigating water stress. Wealthy countries with limited water resources tend to reduce domestic water consumption by importing virtual water, whereas countries characterized by net exports of virtual water generally have higher water resources and per capita income. In the case of Morocco, Oki et al., 2017 found that the country’s GDP per capita, ranging between 1,500 and 7,000 USD, moved from “catastrophically low” to “very low.”

6 Virtual water calculation methods

Many methods have been developed to estimate the water footprint of a product, region, or country, and consequently, the volume of virtual water. The choice of approach depends on factors such as the complexity of the water system, data availability (Yang et al., 2013), production zones and techniques, as well as the nature of the products (Aldaya et al., 2020). In most cases, the methodology used to calculate the water footprint relies on two main approaches: the Bottom-Up and the Top-Down methods, as illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 4

6.1 Bottom-up approaches

The Bottom-Up approach measures the water footprint by calculating the virtual water content of goods and services traded worldwide, using detailed process-level data. However, this approach does not account for the geographical location of water consumption, meaning it does not distinguish between intermediate and final users (Feng et al., 2011). The Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) framework, as outlined by Hoekstra (2017) and discussed by (Egan, 2011) as well as the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, both follow similar steps for water footprint calculation. These include the definition of objectives and scope, quantification, impact assessment, and interpretation (Boulay et al., 2013).

In the assessment phase, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) allows the overall consumption of resources to be evaluated in relation to environmental impacts and enables comparisons between products from different regions that use varying resource inputs under diverse environmental conditions (Yang et al., 2013). In fact, both methods are classified as Bottom-Up approaches, since they rely on detailed data from individual processes (Feng et al., 2011). Bottom-Up approaches are primarily designed to account for the water footprint of agricultural products, generally using modeling techniques to estimate water requirements.

The CropWat model (Hoekstra and Hung, 2002; Ma et al., 2020a; Weijing et al., 2020; Zeng et al., 2012) is a computational tool developed to estimate crop water requirements (CWR) and irrigation demand based on climatic, soil, and crop-specific data. Other modeling frameworks, such as EPIC (Liu et al., 2007), AquaCrop (Chukalla et al., 2015; Zhuo et al., 2016), and LPJmL (Fader et al., 2011), also allow for the estimation of water requirements by considering crop evapotranspiration (ET_c).

Evapotranspiration (ETc) represents the total water loss from an agricultural system following irrigation, resulting from the combined processes of soil surface evaporation and crop transpiration (Rana and Katerji, 2000). These losses vary according to crop type, climatic conditions, and soil characteristics. CropWat and similar models typically rely on the FAO Penman–Monteith equation to estimate crop evapotranspiration and, consequently, the crop water requirement (CWR), expressed as:

The virtual water content (VW) embedded in agricultural production is then estimated as:

This approach provides a consistent and quantitative framework for assessing the water footprint of crop production across different agro-ecological regions.

Boulay et al. (2013) found that Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a methodology focused on product analysis within the broader context of sustainability assurance. It is particularly applied to industrial sectors and manufactured products. In contrast, the Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) approach was initially designed for agricultural sectors and food production systems (Yang et al., 2013), with the primary goal of ensuring the sustainable management of water resources (Matuštík and Kočí, 2020). Regarding the quantification of the water footprint, the two methods differ in scope: LCA considers only the blue water footprint, while WFA accounts for all three components, blue, green, and grey water (Boulay et al., 2013).

LCA uses quantitative indicators in the evaluation phase to measure the water footprint (Pfister et al., 2017). It is a standardized method employed in both scientific research and industry to assess the environmental impacts of a product or service throughout its life cycle (ISO, 2006; Suh and Huppes, 2005). Users of LCA have identified several indicators that are particularly suitable for assessing the grey water footprint, such as eutrophication potential, acidification potential, and toxicity levels, which are more appropriate for evaluating water pollution. Moreover, LCA relies on water footprint assessment databases, including GaBi, Ecoinvent, and Quantis, which are capable of generating detailed water pollution data (Feng et al., 2014; Gerbens-Leenes et al., 2018).

The Bottom-Up approach does not encompass the entire industrial supply chain. In their comparative analysis of the Bottom-Up and Top-Down approaches, Feng et al. (2011), found that discrepancies between the two methods in the agricultural, livestock, and industrial sectors stem from the industrial sector’s reliance on a substantial share of the water used by agriculture, as many agricultural products serve as inputs in industrial production processes.

6.2 Top-down approaches

This approach is widely applied in environmental analyses and ecological footprint studies, such as the energy footprint (Wiedmann, 2009a). The Top-Down approach considers the final use of water consumption. In this context, input–output (IO) tables can be used to quantify both direct and indirect water footprints. The direct water use coefficient (DWUC) indicates the amount of water directly used to produce one monetary unit of output, thereby reflecting the degree of water consumption within each sector. Conversely, the total water use coefficient (TWUC) measures the overall water consumption throughout the supply chain as production moves from one sector to another, for example, from agriculture to textiles to clothing. Within the same framework, IO tables also allow the estimation of virtual water flows between different regions and sectors (Weijing et al., 2020).

Input–output analysis provides a detailed overview of the flows between production and consumption across economic regions and sectors. It identifies water-intensive sectors and estimates total water use and the associated environmental impacts along the supply chain (Yang et al., 2013).

These models also capture both the direct impacts of environmental effects on final consumption and the indirect effects of inputs at each stage of production. This enables the estimation of water consumption by sector and facilitates the calculation of the water footprint throughout the supply chain (Lenzen and Foran, 2006; Velázquez, 2006).

It should be noted that the Top-Down approach based on the input–output (IO) model has long been employed to quantify water use by sector. This model is the most commonly used method for calculating water footprints (Duarte and Yang, 2011; Feng et al., 2011; Hubacek et al., 2009; Zhao et al., 2015). The multi-regional input–output (MRIO) analysis (Acquaye et al., 2017; Ewing et al., 2012; Miller and Blair, 2009) extends this framework and is widely applied to trace and visualize global supply chains in terms of water consumption across all actors and stakeholders (Hubacek et al., 2009; Wiedmann, 2009b).

6.3 Mixtes approaches

Nevertheless, despite its observable usefulness, the Top-Down approach may produce unreliable results due to double-counting arising from process aggregation (Feng et al., 2011; Lenzen, 2008) or the omission of important flows (Daniels et al., 2011). The input–output model does not provide fully complete, accurate, or detailed information on processes, due to the aggregation and intersection of inputs and outputs across different economic sectors (Crawford et al., 2018; Matuštík and Kočí, 2020).

7 Water footprint and virtual water trade in Morocco: assessments and policy implications

The number of studies on the water footprint and virtual water trade has increased in recent decades, driven by the emergence of concepts such as water and food security in the context of climate change risks, as well as the growth of international trade (Liu et al., 2018). However, studies on water footprint and virtual water in Morocco remain limited, particularly those indexed in major academic databases such as Scopus and Web of Science. The existing research is fragmented and often focuses on specific regions or crops, with few comprehensive assessments integrating national-scale analyses, trade dynamics, and policy implications. As shown in Table 1, the first study in this context was a comparative analysis between Morocco and the Netherlands published by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2007). Their calculations revealed that Morocco’s water footprint depends on the Netherlands’ resources for approximately 14% of virtual water needs, while the Netherlands depends on Morocco for about 95% of its own. This highlights both countries’ reliance on international water resources, despite the contrasting climatic conditions, Morocco’s arid/semi-arid climate versus the generally humid climate of the Netherlands. The authors also found that trade between the two countries allow Morocco to save a significant quantity of water, estimated at 780 million m³ per year.

Like most African countries, Morocco’s water resources are affected by climate change, economic development, and population growth (Tuyishimire et al., 2022). Located in North Africa, a region characterized by water scarcity, Morocco faces particular challenges in water management. In 2014, Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) quantified Morocco’s water footprint and analyzed virtual water trade for the period 1996–2005, aiming to reduce the country’s water footprint, mitigate water stress, and propose scenarios for efficient water resource management. They found that the total water footprint of production amounted to 38.8 Gm³/year, with the agricultural sector alone consuming 83% of blue water and 78% of green water. Only 4% of the water used in the sector’s products was destined for export. The total water footprint is dominated by cereal and sugar beet crops, which consume the largest volumes of water, estimated at 10.981 Mm³/year and 6.787 Mm³/year, respectively.

Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) found that, across all of Morocco’s water basins, the Oum Errabia and Sebou basins accounted for 63% of the country’s water footprint during the study period. The Bouregreg, Oum Errabia, and Tensift basins were identified as the most polluted groundwater basins. The authors also estimated annual water losses due to evapotranspiration at 884 Mm³/year.

Furthermore, Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) analyzed the economic value of agricultural products. Their results highlighted that the economic water productivity of the most water-intensive crops is low. They recommended replacing wheat (0.08 USD/m³) and almond (0.02 USD/m³) with crops such as tomato and Clementine, which exhibit higher economic water productivity, at 1.82 USD/m³ and 0.50 USD/m³, respectively.

In a critical review, Wichelns (2018) argued that the objective of the study conducted by Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) was not entirely appropriate. Wichelns (2018) pointed out that the reallocation of water withdrawals is constrained by factors such as the extent and capacity of water distribution infrastructure, topography, and the projected demographic growth. Additionally, future reductions in per capita water availability due to climate change will increase water demand, further limiting the feasibility of the reallocations proposed by Schyns and Hoekstra. Regarding methodology, Wichelns (2018) criticized the use of the water footprint as an optimization model, arguing that it does not account for the role and scarcity value of other production inputs. Similarly, Perry (2014) noted that water footprint calculations often fail to properly account for evapotranspiration (ET_c), leading to an overestimation of water losses. In this context, Wichelns (2018) recommends incorporating differential values, multiple inputs, opportunity costs, and various objectives to enable a more comprehensive economic analysis, particularly in the context of virtual water trade from water-scarce regions and countries.

Virtual water trade can be influenced by several factors, including climate change and irrigation technologies. Konar et al. (2013) examined the effect of climate change on global virtual water exchanges and found that the total volume of virtual water tends to decrease under certain climatic conditions that alter evapotranspiration rates. Similarly, Le Page et al. (2021) demonstrated that virtual water trade varies according to irrigation regimes and climatic changes.

Irrigation technologies are also critical determinants of virtual water dynamics. In this regard, smart irrigation systems have been shown to promote sustainable water resource management in contexts affected by climate change (Durmuş et al., 2024). Wichelns (2004) also emphasized that production technologies, including irrigation systems, play an essential role in shaping virtual water trade, alongside climatic variability.

Furthermore, beyond irrigation methods and climatic conditions, both the type of crops and varietal differences within the same species can significantly influence virtual water content and efficiency (Adiba et al., 2021).

Gawel and Bernsen (2013) found that using the water footprint for international virtual water trade is not useful for policymakers and does not provide a clear basis for water policy. According to the same authors, virtual water analysis can produce misleading results and ineffective recommendations.

By quantifying grey water in their study, Schyns and Hoekstra (2014) estimated the amount of dilution water required to achieve an ambient nitrate concentration standard as the primary indicator of agricultural production. They presented water pollution as a ratio of the total grey water footprint in a catchment divided by the assimilative capacity of the waste. Meanwhile, Wichelns (2018) found that this definition does not provide sufficient information on the environmental impacts of nitrate or other pollutants.

Hirwa et al. (2022) analyzed virtual water trade flows in Africa and found that, with a value exceeding 100, Morocco falls within the range of overexploited water resources, which increases water scarcity. According to the same study, Morocco is among the top 10 virtual water–importing countries, with a total of 190.32 Mm³.

Boudhar et al. (2023) using a bottom-up approach based on the CROPWAT software, have, for the first time, established a virtual water trade balance for Morocco. The authors analyzed virtual water trade over the period 2000–2017 for 40 crops. They found that Morocco was a net importer of virtual water during the study period, with a deficit of 595.74 Gm³. These results are consistent with the study conducted by (Duarte et al., 2016) on the impact of economic change on international virtual water trade, which indicated that Morocco relies on foreign water resources. Boudhar et al. (2023) further examined Morocco’s exports and imports and found that Morocco’s virtual water exports to the world over the period 2000–2017 amounted to 95.03 Gm³, dominated by vegetables, which accounted for approximately 68,872.17 Hm³, or 72.4% of virtual water exported (e.g., olives: 61,201.13 Hm³). This was followed by fruit products with approximately 25,773.69 Hm³ (mandarins and clementines: 19,819.31 Hm³; tomatoes: 5,126.37 Hm³; apricots: 1,572.86 Hm³; strawberries: 1,479.36 Hm³), and then cereals and pulses with 250.79 Hm³ and 137.29 Hm³, respectively. Regarding virtual water imports, they found that, during the same period, Morocco imported 690.77 Gm³ of virtual water, averaging 38.8 Gm³ per year, mainly in the form of cereals, which accounted for approximately 679.68 Gm³ (barley: 304.95 Gm³; maize: 191.34 Gm³; wheat: 182.70 Gm³), i.e., around 98.4% of the total virtual water imports.

The results of Boudhar et al. (2023) are particularly informative in highlighting the consequences of public policy orientations on the development of national agricultural strategies. Indeed, the increase in virtual water exports from 1.73 Gm³ in 2000 to 7.86 Gm³ in 2017 suggests that the implementation of various agricultural strategies, as part of the reform of the Moroccan agricultural sector aimed at promoting high-value export crops, has affected the volumes of virtual water imported and exported (D’Odorico et al., 2019; Dalin et al., 2012; Odey et al., 2021). This increase has contributed to the depletion of the country’s water resources, particularly groundwater, especially during a period characterized by low rainfall, thereby revealing a clear divergence between Morocco’s agricultural and water policies.

At the intra-country level, Haddad et al. (2020) employed an inter-regional input–output model to evaluate virtual water exchanges between different regions of Morocco, analyzing the relationship between these exchanges and the creation of added value at the regional level. The authors found that the total amount of water embedded in trade between regions exceeds that of foreign exports. Haddad et al. (2020) urther discovered that the regions of Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra, Dakhla-Oued Eddahab, Grand Casablanca-Settat, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima had a high share of added value, close to 40%, relative to their water consumption. However, their virtual water trade balance was in deficit compared with the regions of Béni Mellal-Khénifra and Fès-Meknès, which have a high level of agricultural activity. According to the Trade-based Water Intensity (TWI) study by Haddad et al., 2020, virtual water trade between the Fès-Meknès, Béni Mellal-Khénifra, Drâa-Tafilalet, and Souss-Massa regions and the rest of the world exerts strong pressure on the water resources of these regions, thereby threatening their water security.

Ridaoui et al. (2025) conducted an assessment of virtual water trade between Morocco and the European Union during the period 2000–2020, focusing on the 32 most traded agricultural products between the two economic partners. Their results indicate that Morocco exported a total of 3,393.791 Mm³ of virtual water to the EU during the study period, primarily dominated by water-intensive fruits and vegetables. Conversely, Morocco imported 55,232.963 Mm³ of virtual water, mainly in the form of cereals, making Morocco a net importer of virtual water with the European Union. The study further demonstrated that the economic profitability, measured in dollars per cubic meter of exported water, is low for most exported agricultural products, except for tomatoes, strawberries, carrots, and watermelons.

8 Conclusion

A literature review of virtual water trade was conducted with the aim of clarifying the available research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first literature review encompassing all studies on virtual water trade in Morocco. The review focused on the status and methods of water resource management in Morocco, while highlighting the impact of agricultural policies on water resources and the potential role of virtual water trade as a solution to alleviate pressure on these resources. The main studies on virtual water trade in Morocco were grouped and presented in chronological order. Both water footprint and virtual water were considered, with an emphasis on studies that are economically significant. Additionally, the review described the approaches used to quantify virtual water. The results showed that, although Morocco is a net importer of virtual water, there is a lack of coordination between agricultural and water policies, which exacerbates water stress and contributes to water scarcity. Moreover, the literature highlighted the economic origins of the virtual water concept, emphasizing the main theories of economic thought related to it. This review provides key insights for water resource management in Morocco, demonstrating the value of integrating the virtual water concept into agricultural policy planning as a means to alleviate pressure on water resources and support sustainable, integrated water management, thereby contributing to water security in a region among the warmest in the world.

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