ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Agron.
Sec. Climate-Smart Agronomy
This article is part of the Research TopicCropping Systems Adaptation in the Context of Global Change: Current Trends and Future DirectionsView all 4 articles
Optimizing cultivars enhances climate resilience of oat production across China under future climate change
Provisionally accepted
- 1Hebei Academy of sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
- 2Zhangjiakou Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhangjiakou, China
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Oats (Avena sativa L.) is a vital grain and forage crop supporting global food security and sustainable diets. A comprehensive understanding of the adaptive potential of oat to climate change is urgently required to develop effective strategies for ensuring future agriculture and food security. In this study, using the APSIM-Oat model and CMIP6 SSP scenarios, we investigated potential adaptation strategies through cultivar optimization across China, including North east China (NEC), North China plain (NCP), North west China (NWC) and South west China (SWC). Under future climate scenarios, rainfed oat biomass and yield are projected to decrease in the 2030s, with improvements emerging in cooler northern regions such as NEC by the 2060s, while southern regions including NCP, NWC, and SWC continue to experience declines. Similar trends are observed under irrigated conditions. Cultivar optimization shows strong regional and water-management specificity, early-maturing cultivars are recommended for NEC under rainfed conditions, whereas middle-and late-maturing types suit NCP, SWC and NWC, respectively. Under irrigation, early-maturing cultivars perform better across NEC, NCP, and NWC, with middle-maturing cultivars remaining preferable in SWC. Adopting optimal cultivars effectively mitigates yield losses in vulnerable regions like SWC and enhances yield gains in other regions under both rainfed and irrigated systems. These findings highlight the importance of region-specific cultivar optimization in sustaining oat production, supporting climate-resilient agriculture, and safeguarding long-term food security.
Keywords: Climate Change, Cultivar maturing, yield, biomass, APSIM-oat
Received: 09 Sep 2025; Accepted: 06 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Tang, Bai, Zhang, Guo and Zhou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jianzhao Tang, tjzcau@163.com
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