ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Aquac.
Sec. Society, Value Chains, Governance and Development
Volume 4 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/faquc.2025.1541025
This article is part of the Research TopicAquaculture Embedded in Wider Agri-Food SystemsView all 3 articles
Forecasting the production and export of shrimp in Bangladesh: a policy focused time series analysis
Provisionally accepted
- Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
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The study analyses shrimp industry of Bangladesh, highlighting its growth potential amid challenges such as declining export volumes, quality compliance issues, and competition from low-cost producers. Despite expanded farming areas and increased production, exports have fallen due to food safety issues, weak infrastructure, and inadequate regulatory compliance.The study employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast shrimp production and exports, analyzing 33 years of data to identify bottlenecks and policy gaps. Using statistical tests, co-integration analysis, and a literature review, it highlights challenges in legislative policies and quality compliance, offering strategies to enhance standards and global competitiveness. The analysis reveals a steady rise in shrimp production, contrasting with a two-fold decline in export quantities from 2011 to 2023, largely due to quality non-compliance and contamination. The VAR(1) model predicts a slight decline in production by 2026-27, with exports potentially decreasing by a factor of 3.2 compared to 2010 -11. Key challenges include hazardous residues, poor management practices, and disease outbreaks. Legislative analysis highlights policy gaps, weak enforcement, and insufficient infrastructure as significant barriers to meeting international standards. Addressing these challenges is critical for enhancing the global competitiveness of the industry. Recommendations include incentivizing organic farming under certification, improving post-harvest infrastructure, adopting advanced disease management technologies, and establishing regional testing facilities. A unified shrimp marketing policy is essential to enhance quality, sustainability, and competitiveness in global markets. These strategies aim to align the industry with international standards, boost exports, and ensure long-term sustainability.
Keywords: Shrimp production, export, time series analysis, Shrimp Policy, sustainability, Bangladesh
Received: 06 Dec 2024; Accepted: 08 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Haque and Shohan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Mohammad Mahfujul Haque, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
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